NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton up in CO, FL, NC, VA (user search)
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  NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton up in CO, FL, NC, VA (search mode)
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Author Topic: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton up in CO, FL, NC, VA  (Read 7789 times)
Gass3268
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« on: July 15, 2016, 08:54:00 AM »

Clinton is winning every region in VA, except Central/West. Including the DC exurb region.

Clinton is only carrying the Denver/East Suburbs and West Suburbs regions in CO, but that still puts her up by 8%.

NC and FL seem to be following traditional splits (expect Northern Florida being so close)

Clinton wins college educated whites in every state, but Florida (but she's only down 5 with them).

Clinton loses landline voters by 1% in FL, but is leading cell phone voters by 12%.

Clinton is up 79-5 among black voters in FL, 84-4 in NC, and 76-3 in VA.

Clinton is up 57-25 among Latinos in CO. HillOfANight has the data from FL.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2016, 11:38:48 AM »

Wait, why is Trump losing the panhandle and losing men!

Crosstab wackiness. Trump's up big in the panhandle and Clinton is up in Orlando. Obviously.

The Orlando area actually includes some of the Atlantic Ocean shoreline, which is pretty Republican.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2016, 11:46:55 AM »

Wait, why is Trump losing the panhandle and losing men!

Crosstab wackiness. Trump's up big in the panhandle and Clinton is up in Orlando. Obviously.

The Orlando area actually includes some of the Atlantic Ocean shoreline, which is pretty Republican.

Do you know what counties they included in their definition of the Orlando area?

Unfortunately no, just in the pdf of the poll they mention it as part Atlantic Ocean shoreline. Maybe I'll shoot them an email.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2016, 05:23:29 PM »

Hillary is doing better than Obama with White Southern women ("Bill Clinton women", lol). That's devastating because Republicans can't afford to lose any White support in states like NC and VA.

Personal anecdote about this, my fiancée is from suburban Nashville. Her paternal grandmother has been a Republican since about 04, but she's voting for Clinton this cycle because Trump disgusts her. Also her half sister (fiancée's great aunt), who's been a Republican since about Reagan has said she's planning on leaving the Presidential line blank or not even going to the polls on election day. Her other grandmother has been a Democrat her entire life, but is the most excited she's ever been for an election because of Hillary Clinton. While this is only a personal anecdote, I can't imagine it's an exclusive situation.
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