NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton up in CO, FL, NC, VA

[Holmes]

Soo we got Q and Ras showing favorable Trump numbers, national pollsters showing the race between tied and C+4, and Marist and Fox News showing the battleground states all favoring Hillary comfortably, save for Ohio.

[Holmes]

Wait, why is Trump losing the panhandle and losing men!

Crosstab wackiness. Trump's up big in the panhandle and Clinton is up in Orlando. Obviously.

[Holmes]

Wait, why is Trump losing the panhandle and losing men!

Crosstab wackiness. Trump's up big in the panhandle and Clinton is up in Orlando. Obviously.

The Orlando area actually includes some of the Atlantic Ocean shoreline, which is pretty Republican.

Do you know what counties they included in their definition of the Orlando area?

[Holmes]

Tampa is also a media market that the Clinton campaign has been hitting hard on the airwaves.

[Holmes]

Hillary is doing better than Obama with White Southern women ("Bill Clinton women", lol). That's devastating because Republicans can't afford to lose any White support in states like NC and VA.

Personal anecdote about this, my fiancée is from suburban Nashville. Her paternal grandmother has been a Republican since about 04, but she's voting for Clinton this cycle because Trump disgusts her. Also her half sister (fiancée's great aunt), who's been a Republican since about Reagan has said she's planning on leaving the Presidential line blank or not even going to the polls on election day. Her other grandmother has been a Democrat her entire life, but is the most excited she's ever been for an election because of Hillary Clinton. While this is only a personal anecdote, I can't imagine it's an exclusive situation.

Middle aged+ suburban white women will show a swing towards Hillary this year, yeah. More than Sanders would've seen (though he would've picked up more males on the other hand).

[Holmes]

Hillary is doing better than Obama with White Southern women ("Bill Clinton women", lol). That's devastating because Republicans can't afford to lose any White support in states like NC and VA.

Personal anecdote about this, my fiancée is from suburban Nashville. Her paternal grandmother has been a Republican since about 04, but she's voting for Clinton this cycle because Trump disgusts her. Also her half sister (fiancée's great aunt), who's been a Republican since about Reagan has said she's planning on leaving the Presidential line blank or not even going to the polls on election day. Her other grandmother has been a Democrat her entire life, but is the most excited she's ever been for an election because of Hillary Clinton. While this is only a personal anecdote, I can't imagine it's an exclusive situation.

But if Hillary doing better than Obama with White Southern women and still have approximately the same margin than Obama over Romney, it implies, that she is doing worse in other group{s}.
So there is probably a (probably old white man) person who have been Democrat since Jimmy Carter that's voting for Trump this cycle. Or? :/

It's possible, though I don't see many Obama (2012) -> Trump middle aged+ white male Southerns existing. If Clinton is ahead by mid-to-high single digits in FL, NC and VA, the margin is larger than it was in 2012.

[Holmes]

You should try a xanax.