NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton up in CO, FL, NC, VA

[psychprofessor]

Virginia is probably the best bellweather for the nation as a whole - NBC +9 and Fox +7 probably has this race as a high single digit Hillary lead. With these numbers I'd like to see Georgia - could def be in play now.

[psychprofessor]

NC/FL do seem a bit too friendly for Clinton. I'll await some of the folks who took the Q numbers as gospel and mocked red avatars for not believing them to unskew this poll/call it junk.

I agree, I have legitimately no idea how this is going but doesn't this firm have a small D bias of .5% which is .2 less than Q?

The Q sample of Florida was straight out of 1980 with 80% white...NBC also conducts English and Spanish language live interviews. Makes a big difference in FL and CO polls.

[psychprofessor]

NC/FL do seem a bit too friendly for Clinton. I'll await some of the folks who took the Q numbers as gospel and mocked red avatars for not believing them to unskew this poll/call it junk.

I agree, I have legitimately no idea how this is going but doesn't this firm have a small D bias of .5% which is .2 less than Q?

The Q sample of Florida was straight out of 1980 with 80% white...NBC also conducts English and Spanish language live interviews. Makes a big difference in FL and CO polls.

I completely agree with you in Florida and its sample, it was biased towards Trump, but this poll is a little to big of a margin for Hillary if she is leading by less than 4 points or even tied in some polls.

Not really, with 3rd party options she is +5. I gather that's where her campaign thinks it is after the state field director went on a twitter rant to counter-act the Q poll results.

[psychprofessor]

The state-level polling numbers all look about right (North Carolina is maybe too favorable for Democrats, but I might just be underestimating the pace of demographic change or Trump's toxicity in certain areas or something). I'm very encouraged by the poll showing Rubio+3 even as Clinton+5 (Burr+7 even as Clinton+6 is even more impressive); polling from all outfits continues to underscore that Republican congressional incumbents are running significantly ahead of Trump, which augurs well both for the elections this year and for future intraparty battles generally. People want Republicanism more than they want Trumpism.

The NC governor is in a tight race; the CO Sen seat is safe DEM and wait until the FL Dem primary is over before making any proclamations - Rubio below 50 for an incumbent is bad. Same for Toomey in PA.

[psychprofessor]

Beautiful numbers

If I am not wrong, Trump have now 35.4% to win according to 538's 2016 Election Forecast. Up with 1.5 since yesterday due to Marist polls? :/

No, because 538 is now factoring in 3rd/4th parties into polls and that is tightening the odds.

[psychprofessor]

Wait, why is Trump losing the panhandle and losing men!

Crosstab wackiness. Trump's up big in the panhandle and Clinton is up in Orlando. Obviously.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/FLpolls/FL121007/General%20Election%202012/Complete%20October%2011,%202012%20%20Florida%20NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll%20Tables.pdf

Their October 11, 2012 poll for comparison (1 point Obama lead, which nailed it).

It was R+16 in North/Panhandle, now R+1
D+3 in Orlando, now R+4
R+11 in Tampa,  now D+10
R+10 in South Central, now R+13
D+25 in Miami, now D+18

They are very good in diverse states (NBC/Marist) because of live interviewing in English and Spanish. Be careful of robo polling in large, diverse states because it will underestimate Latino and Black percentage, and oversample older whites.