NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton up in CO, FL, NC, VA
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  NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton up in CO, FL, NC, VA
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Author Topic: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton up in CO, FL, NC, VA  (Read 7775 times)
heatcharger
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« Reply #50 on: July 15, 2016, 08:18:16 AM »

Can someone add these to the database?
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heatcharger
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« Reply #51 on: July 15, 2016, 08:21:18 AM »


Ah okay, I couldn't tell because of the flood of Morning Consult polls.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #52 on: July 15, 2016, 08:26:55 AM »

There's no crosstabs.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #53 on: July 15, 2016, 08:35:32 AM »
« Edited: July 15, 2016, 08:37:31 AM by HillOfANight »


Marist took a day to post the other ones.
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/715-colorado-florida-north-carolina-virginia-clinton-with-pre-convention-advantage/
It's up now.

Florida
North/Panhandle: Clinton 40 Trump 41
Orlando: Clinton 37 Trump 41
Tampa: Clinton 43 Trump 33
Mid Florida: Clinton 32 Trump 45
Miami: Clinton 57 Trump 39

White: Clinton 35 Trump 46
Latino: Clinton 50 Trump 29

North Carolina
White: Clinton 31 Trump 49
White non college: Clinton 24 Trump 56
White college: Clinton 39 Trump 41

Virginia
White: Clinton 35 Trump 45
White non college: Clinton 29 Trump 54
White college: Clinton 42 Trump 35
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Gass3268
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« Reply #54 on: July 15, 2016, 08:54:00 AM »

Clinton is winning every region in VA, except Central/West. Including the DC exurb region.

Clinton is only carrying the Denver/East Suburbs and West Suburbs regions in CO, but that still puts her up by 8%.

NC and FL seem to be following traditional splits (expect Northern Florida being so close)

Clinton wins college educated whites in every state, but Florida (but she's only down 5 with them).

Clinton loses landline voters by 1% in FL, but is leading cell phone voters by 12%.

Clinton is up 79-5 among black voters in FL, 84-4 in NC, and 76-3 in VA.

Clinton is up 57-25 among Latinos in CO. HillOfANight has the data from FL.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #55 on: July 15, 2016, 09:49:14 AM »

Finally, some good polls.

(i.e. polls that I like)
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #56 on: July 15, 2016, 09:50:37 AM »

Why isn't the Trumpster posting this on his facebook page? Sad!!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #57 on: July 15, 2016, 10:01:02 AM »

If I am not wrong, Trump have now 35.4% to win according to 538's 2016 Election Forecast. Up with 1.5 since yesterday due to Marist polls? :/
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #58 on: July 15, 2016, 10:02:42 AM »
« Edited: July 15, 2016, 10:04:14 AM by Classic Conservative »

Wait, why is Trump losing the panhandle and losing men!
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #59 on: July 15, 2016, 10:13:38 AM »

If I am not wrong, Trump have now 35.4% to win according to 538's 2016 Election Forecast. Up with 1.5 since yesterday due to Marist polls? :/

No, because 538 is now factoring in 3rd/4th parties into polls and that is tightening the odds.
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Holmes
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« Reply #60 on: July 15, 2016, 10:18:47 AM »

Wait, why is Trump losing the panhandle and losing men!

Crosstab wackiness. Trump's up big in the panhandle and Clinton is up in Orlando. Obviously.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #61 on: July 15, 2016, 11:22:43 AM »

If I am not wrong, Trump have now 35.4% to win according to 538's 2016 Election Forecast. Up with 1.5 since yesterday due to Marist polls? :/

No, because 538 is now factoring in 3rd/4th parties into polls and that is tightening the odds.
Partly. But take a look to Florida for example. The race there tightened compared to yesterday, even though two +5 Clinton polls came out today. So the race has tightened, but Clinton probably still has a (comfortable?) lead.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #62 on: July 15, 2016, 11:38:48 AM »

Wait, why is Trump losing the panhandle and losing men!

Crosstab wackiness. Trump's up big in the panhandle and Clinton is up in Orlando. Obviously.

The Orlando area actually includes some of the Atlantic Ocean shoreline, which is pretty Republican.
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Holmes
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« Reply #63 on: July 15, 2016, 11:41:27 AM »

Wait, why is Trump losing the panhandle and losing men!

Crosstab wackiness. Trump's up big in the panhandle and Clinton is up in Orlando. Obviously.

The Orlando area actually includes some of the Atlantic Ocean shoreline, which is pretty Republican.

Do you know what counties they included in their definition of the Orlando area?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #64 on: July 15, 2016, 11:46:55 AM »

Wait, why is Trump losing the panhandle and losing men!

Crosstab wackiness. Trump's up big in the panhandle and Clinton is up in Orlando. Obviously.

The Orlando area actually includes some of the Atlantic Ocean shoreline, which is pretty Republican.

Do you know what counties they included in their definition of the Orlando area?

Unfortunately no, just in the pdf of the poll they mention it as part Atlantic Ocean shoreline. Maybe I'll shoot them an email.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #65 on: July 15, 2016, 12:06:31 PM »

Wait, why is Trump losing the panhandle and losing men!

Crosstab wackiness. Trump's up big in the panhandle and Clinton is up in Orlando. Obviously.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/FLpolls/FL121007/General%20Election%202012/Complete%20October%2011,%202012%20%20Florida%20NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll%20Tables.pdf

Their October 11, 2012 poll for comparison (1 point Obama lead, which nailed it).

It was R+16 in North/Panhandle, now R+1
D+3 in Orlando, now R+4
R+11 in Tampa,  now D+10
R+10 in South Central, now R+13
D+25 in Miami, now D+18
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #66 on: July 15, 2016, 12:16:17 PM »

Wait, why is Trump losing the panhandle and losing men!

Crosstab wackiness. Trump's up big in the panhandle and Clinton is up in Orlando. Obviously.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/FLpolls/FL121007/General%20Election%202012/Complete%20October%2011,%202012%20%20Florida%20NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll%20Tables.pdf

Their October 11, 2012 poll for comparison (1 point Obama lead, which nailed it).

It was R+16 in North/Panhandle, now R+1
D+3 in Orlando, now R+4
R+11 in Tampa,  now D+10
R+10 in South Central, now R+13
D+25 in Miami, now D+18

They are very good in diverse states (NBC/Marist) because of live interviewing in English and Spanish. Be careful of robo polling in large, diverse states because it will underestimate Latino and Black percentage, and oversample older whites.
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Holmes
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« Reply #67 on: July 15, 2016, 12:23:43 PM »

Tampa is also a media market that the Clinton campaign has been hitting hard on the airwaves.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #68 on: July 15, 2016, 12:26:33 PM »
« Edited: July 15, 2016, 12:29:06 PM by HillOfANight »

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f314592b-a46a-4fc9-8621-19f500aada3f

This is another data point to compare, SurveyUSA's late June poll.
They define exactly what counties are in their region results.

http://www.surveyusa.com/SUSA_Regional_Definitions_As_Of_081029.htm

Northwest (8% of FL)
Clinton 40
Trump 44

Northeast (9%)
Clinton 36
Trump 53

Central (31%)
Clinton 41
Trump 45[/color]

Southwest (23%)
Clinton 44
Trump 44

Southeast (30%)
Clinton 56
Trump 32
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #69 on: July 15, 2016, 12:53:43 PM »

So where are the chicken littles and the gloaters? Talk about having egg on your face...

Yes .... where is our new trump-supporting troll with the username "rwr."
The one who created the "Getting Nervous Yet" thread 2 days ago.
I don't see him posting here (or maybe he is, using his "calmer" other Atlas username).
LOL.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #70 on: July 15, 2016, 12:57:36 PM »

One theory that I've seen floated by 538/The Upshot is that Clinton is doing significantly better among Southern whites than Obama, which is why the south appears to be going towards her (Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia) while whites elsewhere seem to be mostly unchanged or shifting towards Trump a bit. It could also explain the massive swing in Northern Florida in these polls.
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Wells
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« Reply #71 on: July 15, 2016, 02:28:18 PM »

Tampa is also a media market that the Clinton campaign has been hitting hard on the airwaves.

Clinton spent all this money on advertisements and got nothing!!


Oh wait. . .
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #72 on: July 15, 2016, 06:09:55 PM »

Unless one is the second coming of George McGovern or Walter Mondale, it would be practically impossible to do worse among Southern whites than did Barack Obama.  Nothing more need be said.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #73 on: July 15, 2016, 08:58:31 PM »

Most of the recent polls haven't been plugged into the database yet.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #74 on: July 15, 2016, 11:01:14 PM »

Most of the recent polls haven't been plugged into the database yet.

Which ones are you referring to? All the Marist and Morning Consult ones have been entered.
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