Trump announces Pence will be his running mate -- discussion thread

[libertpaulian]

Pence could put Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania to the Trump campaign. He's a soothing Midwesterner, my type of politician.

Lol no, especially Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Um, yeah, Michigan is near to Indiana. He plays well in that media market.

How did Paul Ryan play in Wisconsin or the rest of the Midwest?

Devil's Advocate:

There is a significant difference between Governors (e.g. Pence) and Representatives in the House (e.g. Ryan), particularly in the areas they represent. Ryan couldn't deliver Wisconsin or the Midwest because, as a House member, he ran for elections in one district. Pence, on the other hand, won governship by winning an entire state, which is broader than one district. Thus, it's reasonable to think that Pence, unlike Ryan in 2012, can deliver areas to a presidential nominee.

And Pence still managed to win the governorship, even though Richard Mourdock put all statewide offices into play for the Dems that year.

[CactusJack]

Pence did endorse Cruz, but remember it was that incredibly half hearted endorsement that the media said sounded like he was really endorsing Trump.

Pence will likely not deliver any of the Midwest to Trump. Trump can win Ohio but he would win it without Pence.

Where Pence may help is to churn out the Evangelicals and social conservatives that were fanatically loyal to Bush in 2000 and 2004. Pence helps Trump in Virginia and North Carolina and Northern Florida more than he does in Wisconsin and Michigan

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Meh. At least he's not Gingrich.

[heatcharger]

Where Pence may help is to churn out the Evangelicals and social conservatives that were fanatically loyal to Bush in 2000 and 2004. Pence helps Trump in Virginia and North Carolina and Northern Florida more than he does in Wisconsin and Michigan

These people were already supporting Trump at the same rate, if not higher than they did for Romney:


Furthermore, I think this turns off at least a few "Reagan Democrats" aka muh working class whites who want a candidate and a ticket who is firmly against the TPP.

Overall it's not a great pick, but I see why he did it.

[CactusJack]

They are? (did you post a link? I see it broken) Honestly I had no idea, just made an assumption. I never thought the Evangelicals were too hot on Trump because his public image, past divorces...it just doesn't look like a person they'd trust.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/GovPenceIN/status/674249808610066433?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw



HAHA!

[Redban]

https://twitter.com/GovPenceIN/status/674249808610066433?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw



HAHA!

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/20/politics/donald-trump-vice-president/

If Trump is known for having exacting preferences, his top employees also say there's nothing that annoys Trump more than "yes men.

"That's one thing that people don't really know about him. He likes the fact that I'm not a yes man, per se," Amini said. "If somebody does disagree with him, he wants to know why and he may end up changing his mind."

[Terry the Fat Shark]

 https://twitter.com/PhilipRucker/status/753659233313382404?s=09
Phillip Rucker says Trump people confirm vp pick has not been made

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Did Paul Ryans VP slot help Romney in his district?

[The Other Castro]

I would love for this to all be a revenge tactic from Trump. Pence endorses Cruz, so Trump in exchange tricks Pence into dropping out of the governor race, but Trump ends up picking someone else.

[swf541]

Anyone else think this is a big fake out?

Pence is just a really bad choice

[Figueira]

Anyone else think this is a big fake out?

Pence is just a really bad choice

Yeah, I don't believe it until the actual announcement happens.

[Virginiá]

Devil's Advocate:

There is a significant difference between Governors (e.g. Pence) and Representatives in the House (e.g. Ryan), particularly in the areas they represent. Ryan couldn't deliver Wisconsin or the Midwest because, as a House member, he ran for elections in one district. Pence, on the other hand, won governship by winning an entire state, which is broader than one district. Thus, it's reasonable to think that Pence, unlike Ryan in 2012, can deliver areas to a presidential nominee.

Lookbacks to the effectiveness of VPs bringing in voters for the ticket on their own merits shows that at best, a good VP pick will only provide a marginal bump, and that happens only when the VP is well-liked and well-known in their home state. Exceptional VP candidates may help beyond their home state, but Pence is neither exceedingly popular in his own state nor popular or even well-known nationally.

Perhaps way back when, they had more effect, but these days it seems pretty clear that they don't, or if they do, the effects are so small that it's basically impossible to tell.

[President Johnson]

LOL, German media now reporting TRUMP has picked Pence. LOL!!

[swf541]

Anyone else think this is a big fake out?

Pence is just a really bad choice

Yeah, I don't believe it until the actual announcement happens.

Yep, I also think that Trump would confirm it at this point or post some tweet on it

[PeteB]

Anyone else think this is a big fake out?

Pence is just a really bad choice

It very well could be - we're talking Trump here.

I started a new thread on this:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=240767.0

[Redban]

Did Paul Ryans VP slot help Romney in his district?

The Romney-Ryan ticket actually did worse than the Ryan ticket did:

In Ryan's southern Wisconsin district, the Romney-Ryan ticket ran about 3 points behind Ryan the congressional candidate.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/paul-ryans-very-mixed-election-day-in-wisconsin-3t7iit7-178024521.html

[Erc]

I would love for this to all be a revenge tactic from Trump. Pence endorses Cruz, so Trump in exchange tricks Pence into dropping out of the governor race, but Trump ends up picking someone else.

The thought did occur to me.  Is this the beginning of the Trump purges?

[ShadowRocket]

The most important thing that Pence brings is that he'll probably assuage the elements in the Republican Party that are reluctant to support Trump and help unify the party in a way that Gingrich or Christie probably couldn't.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

AYYEEE LMFAO

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Trump will be on Fox News at 7 PM Eastern

[Taco Truck 🚚]

heh. The liberal wackos at Buzzfeed were ready for Pence. I can just see Rachel Madcow, doing her usual bated breath routine, jabbing her pen at the camera, hard stop after each word.

"Do you hear that America? Mike....Pence...doesn't think...smoking...is harmful"

Anyway...smoking doesn't kill? ugh. That's such a mind numbingly stupid thing for Pence to say.

Of all the things we choose to ignore most of the time on this forum while debating nonissues cigarette smoking has to be in the top 5.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Having yet another antiscience guy on a national ticket is actually pretty newsworthy... if it is true.  If we eliminated cigarette smoking we could potentially save trillions of dollars over decades.

I actually respect Trump a lot for his zero tolerance stance on substance abuse whether it is nicotine, alcohol, or drugs.

[Fargobison]

Anyone else think this is a big fake out?

Pence is just a really bad choice

Well Christie is worse and Newt isn't much better.

[swf541]

Anyone else think this is a big fake out?

Pence is just a really bad choice

Well Christie is worse and Newt isn't much better.

Pence cant even speak well......  Christie is bad but at least he can talk competently

[Fargobison]

Anyone else think this is a big fake out?

Pence is just a really bad choice

Well Christie is worse and Newt isn't much better.

Pence cant even speak well......  Christie is bad but at least he can talk competently

Yes but does anyone like Christie? He might be more unlikable then either Trump or HRC, it takes talent to be that unlikable. Pence is just a safe boring pick that won't hurt him and will make a few conservatives happier with Trump.