Discuss this map

[Crumpets]

This seems to be what polls are currently indicating will happen. Is this even a rational combination of wins and losses for each candidate? What would the swing map look like, and what groups would drive it? What would the popular vote look like?

Trump 273 EV
Clinton 265 EV

[Neocon Dem]

I think IA flips before PA, but yeah looks like a good Trump win map. PA will be hard for him to win, but it may be his only shot.

[Ljube]

This has been my map since the fall.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

PA is a Democratic leaning state and Iowa will do the same. 

[White Trash]

This map would not surprise me at all

[Ljube]

I have already explained how that map happens and done that many times. But I'll do it again.

Trump wins a lot of blacks - up to 15%.
He also wins more Hispanics than Romney.
Also, working class whites who are Dem voters traditionally.

He can't do that in Iowa or Wisconsin, because people there don't like his style. He can't win Colorado because of the educateds. He loses Virginia because of the statists and New Hampshire because of the greens.

He might come close in/win Michigan and Nevada. Romney states are guaranteed.

[Ljube]

Come to think of it, Trump can afford to lose Omaha. Who cares about ONE electoral vote? Not Trump!

As I said many times before, Trump will only campaign/run ads in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan. He may also invest in New York and Illinois, but these will be just for show. Other than that - nothing. Even Nevada, where he has a decent chance of winning, is too small for a serious investment. All other states are hopeless.

[tinman64]

I think, in light of the last week of stuff, that this map is extremely possible.

[Neocon Dem]

This is a plausible map, but if Drumpf is winning PA, he's definitely winning IA as well. Also I'm not THAT convinced that Drumpf is so much more likely to win PA than VA.

Thankfully we are receiving a new VA poll from FOX tonight!

[IceSpear]

This is a plausible map, but if Drumpf is winning PA, he's definitely winning IA as well. Also I'm not THAT convinced that Drumpf is so much more likely to win PA than VA.

Thankfully we are receiving a new VA poll from FOX tonight!

Well, maybe the Trump fans will be thankful for that.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

I have already explained how that map happens and done that many times. But I'll do it again.

Trump wins a lot of blacks - up to 15%.
He also wins more Hispanics than Romney.
Also, working class whites who are Dem voters traditionally.

He can't do that in Iowa or Wisconsin, because people there don't like his style. He can't win Colorado because of the educateds. He loses Virginia because of the statists and New Hampshire because of the greens.

He might come close in/win Michigan and Nevada. Romney states are guaranteed.

I can tell you with 99.99% certainty that this won't happen.

The map is certainly plausible, but I wouldn't be too bullish on Trump in PA. It's in play, but a Trump win there isn't as simple as him "winning blue collar voters." He has to win white working class voters by a wide margin, improving drastically on Romney's performance if he is to win there. Democrats know how to turn out their voters in the Philly area, and if Trump can't get at least some organization, he's going to be in a lot of trouble.

[Ljube]

I have already explained how that map happens and done that many times. But I'll do it again.

Trump wins a lot of blacks - up to 15%.
He also wins more Hispanics than Romney.
Also, working class whites who are Dem voters traditionally.

He can't do that in Iowa or Wisconsin, because people there don't like his style. He can't win Colorado because of the educateds. He loses Virginia because of the statists and New Hampshire because of the greens.

He might come close in/win Michigan and Nevada. Romney states are guaranteed.

I can tell you with 99.99% certainty that this won't happen.

The map is certainly plausible, but I wouldn't be too bullish on Trump in PA. It's in play, but a Trump win there isn't as simple as him "winning blue collar voters." He has to win white working class voters by a wide margin, improving drastically on Romney's performance if he is to win there. Democrats know how to turn out their voters in the Philly area, and if Trump can't get at least some organization, he's going to be in a lot of trouble.

Once again, this could be a misunderstanding.

I am not referring to blacks/Hispanics overall, just those in the four Trump targeted swing states.

Save for Florida, we're talking about northern blacks, who are also mostly working class. If you think Trump won't appeal to them, please explain your position.

As for Hispanics, the only Hispanics that matter are Florida Hispanics. They are still Anti-Trump, but I expect them to come home.

[CivicParticipant]

Iowa is possible, it leans more R than the nation. But I'm not sure his lead will hold up there.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

I have already explained how that map happens and done that many times. But I'll do it again.

Trump wins a lot of blacks - up to 15%.
He also wins more Hispanics than Romney.
Also, working class whites who are Dem voters traditionally.

He can't do that in Iowa or Wisconsin, because people there don't like his style. He can't win Colorado because of the educateds. He loses Virginia because of the statists and New Hampshire because of the greens.

He might come close in/win Michigan and Nevada. Romney states are guaranteed.

I can tell you with 99.99% certainty that this won't happen.

The map is certainly plausible, but I wouldn't be too bullish on Trump in PA. It's in play, but a Trump win there isn't as simple as him "winning blue collar voters." He has to win white working class voters by a wide margin, improving drastically on Romney's performance if he is to win there. Democrats know how to turn out their voters in the Philly area, and if Trump can't get at least some organization, he's going to be in a lot of trouble.

Once again, this could be a misunderstanding.

I am not referring to blacks/Hispanics overall, just those in the four Trump targeted swing states.

Save for Florida, we're talking about northern blacks, who are also mostly working class. If you think Trump won't appeal to them, please explain your position.

As for Hispanics, the only Hispanics that matter are Florida Hispanics. They are still Anti-Trump, but I expect them to come home.

It merits mention that VA/NC also have a growing Latino population. It's a given that Trump will do at least slightly better among FL Latinos than Latinos in the Southwest, but that demographic is already trending Democratic, and I don't see why he'd do better than Romney did, considering some of his comments and positions.

Northern black voters are still overwhelmingly Democratic, and I fail to see what Trump has to offer them. Keep in mind that Kerry's *weaker* numbers (compared to Obama) among black voters was still enough for him to win PA, and it's not like Bush didn't try to win the state.