FL/OH/PA-Quinnipiac: Trump leads or tied in all three states

[Gass3268]

NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist will be releasing polls for OH and PA today at 5pm ET. Will be interesting to compare. They will also be releasing a poll from Iowa.

[Gass3268]

Should be noted that Quinnipiac has a reputation of having ridiculously crazy swings in Florida.

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That's from Obama's State Director for the 2008 campaign in Florida (Florida Senior Advisor in 2012)

[Gass3268]

PA is one of the few states that have people that would be considered "Reagan Democrats" where they are technically Democrats, but would self-identify as Republicans here.

I think the crossover in the primaries was over 100,000 in PA.

I do think Trump +6 is overstated here, but I am not shocked that the state is competitive.

Well, leaving aside a discussion of Reagan Democrats, Republicans are also undersampled here -- less so, but still. It's Independents who are extremely overrepresented, but I suppose that's inevitable in a "Do you consider yourself" sort of a question. Don't get me wrong, maybe Republicans will turnout at a higher rate. But there's a built-in 900,000 voter advantage for Democrats they have to work around, and the partisan crosstab here is about equally polarized. It's winnable for sure, but I question how representative the sample is.

Luckily, we'll get another data point on PA this afternoon.

We already did, Clinton is up 9 in the NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll.