FL/OH/PA-Quinnipiac: Trump leads or tied in all three states

[Seriously?]

Quinnipiac is garbage, garbage, garbage. The stupid thing is that people will harp on these polls for months and then be shocked when Trump loses. No one has learned anything from 2012.

A 538 "A-" pollster is garbage because you don't like the messenger. Gotcha.

Look, it's three data points. There's nothing really to get excited about. However, this reinforces the narrative of basically a slim lead for Lying Crooked Hillary! at this point in time. If you are a red avatar, the next few weeks shouldn't be very fun. But things will come back to equilibrium post conventions.

It's a crappy poll. It has the white vote higher than it was in 2012, which is not going to happen. The white vote drops every cycle, it doesn't go up.

If you really want a white supremacist to be President, you have issues. I put you on ignore, so don't bother replying to any of my posts anymore.

Overreact much?

I'd like proof that Trump is a "white supremacist," please.

[Reginald]

In 2012, Mitt Romney and his supporters kept criticizing polls on the basis of oversampling, just as you are doing now. Be careful.

During the primaries, the GOP turnout hit records, surpassing the Democratic primary's turnout; and Trump is getting all of the media attention. Why, then, is it so unreasonable to expect that Republicans will turn out at a much higher rate than they did 4 years ago?

Were they using prior data at all in their criticisms? Didn't keep up with the minutia of their attack of the polls. I just looked at the PA SOS, and the split in party reg as of today is 49-38 in favor of Dems. Maybe I'm crazy, but I don't think a ten-point advantage for Democrats is going to evaporate in the span of an election cycle, enthusiasm gap or not. Wouldn't you say it's a little presumptuous of a pollster to make such a shift in the weights, based off a guess?

[Ljube]

It's the emails. I wonder what the result of Dallas will be.

[Seriously?]

In 2012, Mitt Romney and his supporters kept criticizing polls on the basis of oversampling, just as you are doing now. Be careful.

During the primaries, the GOP turnout hit records, surpassing the Democratic primary's turnout; and Trump is getting all of the media attention. Why, then, is it so unreasonable to expect that Republicans will turn out at a much higher rate than they did 4 years ago?

Were they using prior data at all in their criticisms? Didn't keep up with the minutia of their attack of the polls. I just looked at the PA SOS, and the split in party reg as of today is 49-38 in favor of Dems. Maybe I'm crazy, but I don't think a ten-point advantage for Democrats is going to evaporate in the span of an election cycle, enthusiasm gap or not. Wouldn't you say it's a little presumptuous of a pollster to make such a shift in the weights, based off a guess?

PA is one of the few states that have people that would be considered "Reagan Democrats" where they are technically Democrats, but would self-identify as Republicans here.

I think the crossover in the primaries was over 100,000 in PA.

I do think Trump +6 is overstated here, but I am not shocked that the state is competitive.

[DrScholl]

Are you people even looking at the damn crosstabs? You are blinded by the prospect of a Trump presidency that you can't see the crosstabs are not at all right. When Gallup messed up in 2012 it was because they were using a flawed sample of demographics.

And considering that Trump has no ground game, has rape allegation against him and is pretty much just an evil person, I wouldn't count on his being elected.

[Devout Centrist]

It's the emails. I wonder what the result of Dallas will be.

None, most likely. Brexit and Orlando did nothing to the average.

[Reginald]

PA is one of the few states that have people that would be considered "Reagan Democrats" where they are technically Democrats, but would self-identify as Republicans here.

I think the crossover in the primaries was over 100,000 in PA.

I do think Trump +6 is overstated here, but I am not shocked that the state is competitive.

Well, leaving aside a discussion of Reagan Democrats, Republicans are also undersampled here -- less so, but still. It's Independents who are extremely overrepresented, but I suppose that's inevitable in a "Do you consider yourself" sort of a question. Don't get me wrong, maybe Republicans will turnout at a higher rate. But there's a built-in 900,000 voter advantage for Democrats they have to work around, and the partisan crosstab here is about equally polarized. It's winnable for sure, but I question how representative the sample is.

[Seriously?]

PA is one of the few states that have people that would be considered "Reagan Democrats" where they are technically Democrats, but would self-identify as Republicans here.

I think the crossover in the primaries was over 100,000 in PA.

I do think Trump +6 is overstated here, but I am not shocked that the state is competitive.

Well, leaving aside a discussion of Reagan Democrats, Republicans are also undersampled here -- less so, but still. It's Independents who are extremely overrepresented, but I suppose that's inevitable in a "Do you consider yourself" sort of a question. Don't get me wrong, maybe Republicans will turnout at a higher rate. But there's a built-in 900,000 voter advantage for Democrats they have to work around, and the partisan crosstab here is about equally polarized. It's winnable for sure, but I question how representative the sample is.

Luckily, we'll get another data point on PA this afternoon.

[Gass3268]

PA is one of the few states that have people that would be considered "Reagan Democrats" where they are technically Democrats, but would self-identify as Republicans here.

I think the crossover in the primaries was over 100,000 in PA.

I do think Trump +6 is overstated here, but I am not shocked that the state is competitive.

Well, leaving aside a discussion of Reagan Democrats, Republicans are also undersampled here -- less so, but still. It's Independents who are extremely overrepresented, but I suppose that's inevitable in a "Do you consider yourself" sort of a question. Don't get me wrong, maybe Republicans will turnout at a higher rate. But there's a built-in 900,000 voter advantage for Democrats they have to work around, and the partisan crosstab here is about equally polarized. It's winnable for sure, but I question how representative the sample is.

Luckily, we'll get another data point on PA this afternoon.

We already did, Clinton is up 9 in the NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll.

[Seriously?]

PA is one of the few states that have people that would be considered "Reagan Democrats" where they are technically Democrats, but would self-identify as Republicans here.

I think the crossover in the primaries was over 100,000 in PA.

I do think Trump +6 is overstated here, but I am not shocked that the state is competitive.

Well, leaving aside a discussion of Reagan Democrats, Republicans are also undersampled here -- less so, but still. It's Independents who are extremely overrepresented, but I suppose that's inevitable in a "Do you consider yourself" sort of a question. Don't get me wrong, maybe Republicans will turnout at a higher rate. But there's a built-in 900,000 voter advantage for Democrats they have to work around, and the partisan crosstab here is about equally polarized. It's winnable for sure, but I question how representative the sample is.

Luckily, we'll get another data point on PA this afternoon.

We already did, Clinton is up 9 in the NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll.

Obviously, one of the two polls is wrong. It's just a matter of interpretation. They are so far off from each other. And that's just the PA result. The rest (IA and OH) seem about right and in the same ballpark.

[Ebsy]

Ignoring Quinnipiac is good for one's health.

[IceSpear]

More evidence that I was not being a Chicken Little yesterday. Plus, we learned from 2012 to trust the state polls a lot more than the national ones.

Trump very well could win if the election were held today. Thankfully it's not, but I think we are seeing the beginnings of a clear shift.

You were being a chicken little because you were having a meltdown over a poll in July, before even the conventions were held, not because the poll was necessarily inaccurate at the time.

[IceSpear]

Yeah, Trump's state polls have been a bit better this week, but one poll from a pollster who's had interesting results doesn't make Hillary DOA. Do people really think PA will be significantly more Republican than OH?

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if PA will be significantly more Republican than OH this time round.

Never gonna happen.

[PresidentSamTilden]

A couple things I noticed digging into this poll a bit...

Voters in all 3 states consider HRC to be more intelligent and better prepared to be president than Trump. However, they now also consider her to be less trustworthy. Their moral standards are considered to be roughly the same. That's not good news, because most people see Trump as a pretty scummy guy, lol.

Another worrying piece of data is the economic questions. Majorities in all three states agree with the statement, "I I feel as though I'm falling further and further behind economically." Regardless of what you think of the candidates economic policies, Hillary is taking up the Obama mantle. If people feel that they are doing poorly under a particular president, they're prone to want change. That could drive people to Trump.

Finally, look at question #25. "The old way of doing things no longer works and we need radical change." Yuuuge majorities in all three states agree with these statements. That can't be good for Hillary.

I know it's just one poll, and other data will come out to contradict it. In addition, there is a long way to go until November. But this poll definitely paints the picture of a country ready to elect Trump. 

[Ebsy]

Whoever put the Pennsylvania poll into the database put in the wrong numbers.

[psychprofessor]

A couple things I noticed digging into this poll a bit...

Voters in all 3 states consider HRC to be more intelligent and better prepared to be president than Trump. However, they now also consider her to be less trustworthy. Their moral standards are considered to be roughly the same. That's not good news, because most people see Trump as a pretty scummy guy, lol.

Another worrying piece of data is the economic questions. Majorities in all three states agree with the statement, "I I feel as though I'm falling further and further behind economically." Regardless of what you think of the candidates economic policies, Hillary is taking up the Obama mantle. If people feel that they are doing poorly under a particular president, they're prone to want change. That could drive people to Trump.

Finally, look at question #25. "The old way of doing things no longer works and we need radical change." Yuuuge majorities in all three states agree with these statements. That can't be good for Hillary.

I know it's just one poll, and other data will come out to contradict it. In addition, there is a long way to go until November. But this poll definitely paints the picture of a country ready to elect Trump. 

When the demographics are skewed to white older voters, you're going to get these types of responses. Q is thinking that the electorate is 1980 - take these with a grain of salt. No other reputable poll is finding Hillary down in PA or FL.