FL/OH/PA-Quinnipiac: Trump leads or tied in all three states
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  FL/OH/PA-Quinnipiac: Trump leads or tied in all three states
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Author Topic: FL/OH/PA-Quinnipiac: Trump leads or tied in all three states  (Read 4840 times)
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« Reply #25 on: July 13, 2016, 08:36:19 AM »

The race is still a deadlock and Drumpf is far away from a majority (50%). I remain confidant that Hillary will carry all these states.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #26 on: July 13, 2016, 08:37:35 AM »

Demagogue Donald is closer to his ceiling than is Hillary Clinton.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #27 on: July 13, 2016, 08:40:06 AM »

Should be noted that Quinnipiac has a reputation of having ridiculously crazy swings in Florida.

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That's from Obama's State Director for the 2008 campaign in Florida (Florida Senior Advisor in 2012)
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #28 on: July 13, 2016, 08:43:17 AM »

I don't understand why anyone cares about these polls with both candidates under 45%...
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #29 on: July 13, 2016, 08:48:56 AM »

NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist will be releasing polls for OH and PA today at 5pm ET. Will be interesting to compare. They will also be releasing a poll from Iowa.

And we have CO, VA, NC, FL later in the week. MU Law around mid-day today and then FOX news are releasing 3 "swing state" polls today(unsure which one). My guess will be around 6 eastern. CO-Monmouth and MO-PPP.
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Wells
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« Reply #30 on: July 13, 2016, 08:51:24 AM »

I'm not worried. Trump is a Democratic plant and will find a way to sabotage himself.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #31 on: July 13, 2016, 08:53:53 AM »

Yeah no, the sky is not falling because of a July Quinnipiac poll.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #32 on: July 13, 2016, 08:55:02 AM »

I'm not worried. Trump is a Democratic plant and will find a way to sabotage himself.

He's just a plant.
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dspNY
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« Reply #33 on: July 13, 2016, 09:02:09 AM »

Once again the crosstabs on these polls are way off

In 2012 the Ohio electorate was 79% white, 15% black. Q has the white vote at 82% and the black vote at 12% here

Ohio's 2012 electorate was D+8 (D38/R30/I31). Q has an even electorate (30D/30R/34I)

In 2012 the Florida electorate was D+2 (35D/33R/32I). Q has an R+2 electorate here (31R/29D/32I)

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dspNY
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« Reply #34 on: July 13, 2016, 09:10:58 AM »

Additionally, read these extra questions. This is polling malpractice and almost sounds like a push poll for Trump

23. The government has gone too far in assisting minority groups

The proper way to ask that question is "Do you believe the government has not gone far enough in assisting minority groups, has gone too far in assisting minority groups, or has a proper balance on assisting minority groups? (OPTIONS ROTATED)"

24. Public officials don't care much what people like me think

Instead, "Do you believe public officials care about what the American people think or do not care about what the American people think? (OPTIONS ROTATED)"

25. The old way of doing things no longer works and we need radical change.

26. Leaders don't worry about what other people say, they follow their own path.

27. The news media is part of the Washington, D.C. establishment, which is out of touch with the rest of the country.

28. Prejudice against minority groups is a big problem in the United States today.

29. I believe trade agreements with other countries have hurt my and my family's financial situation.

All the questions except for 28 are worded for a pro-Trump response
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #35 on: July 13, 2016, 09:13:17 AM »

Uhhh, how can it be a push poll if those questions came after the presidential poll itself.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #36 on: July 13, 2016, 09:44:54 AM »

Once again the crosstabs on these polls are way off

In 2012 the Ohio electorate was 79% white, 15% black. Q has the white vote at 82% and the black vote at 12% here

Ohio's 2012 electorate was D+8 (D38/R30/I31). Q has an even electorate (30D/30R/34I)

In 2012 the Florida electorate was D+2 (35D/33R/32I). Q has an R+2 electorate here (31R/29D/32I)



Simple -- they're assuming a higher turnout among Republicans, as they had record turnout in the primaries and Trump is getting all of the attention.

In 2012, Republicans were making the same argument that you're making now (i.e. "the polls are oversampling the other party").
But the pollsters that did the whole "unskew" idea lost big time on Election Day.
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Xing
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« Reply #37 on: July 13, 2016, 09:50:09 AM »

Yeah, Trump's state polls have been a bit better this week, but one poll from a pollster who's had interesting results doesn't make Hillary DOA. Do people really think PA will be significantly more Republican than OH?
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #38 on: July 13, 2016, 10:10:35 AM »

Trump will ruin the momentum as usual, but it really shows how weak a candidate Clinton is in this era of backlash against the elite establishment.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #39 on: July 13, 2016, 10:32:25 AM »

I'm not worried. Trump is a Democratic plant and will find a way to sabotage himself.

He's just a plant.

Yeah. He's a Turnip.
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Xing
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« Reply #40 on: July 13, 2016, 10:34:51 AM »

Yeah, Trump's state polls have been a bit better this week, but one poll from a pollster who's had interesting results doesn't make Hillary DOA. Do people really think PA will be significantly more Republican than OH?

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if PA will be significantly more Republican than OH this time round.

Why? That really wouldn't make a lot of sense, since PA and OH are demographically similar, but PA has a higher percentage of minorities and urban voters. It would be like VA ending up much more Republican than NC, or WA ending up much more Republican than OR.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #41 on: July 13, 2016, 11:06:11 AM »

Given the totality of the polls, it's fair to say there's been some shift to Trump over the last week.  But really this is a bad time to be reading too much into the polls.  Hillary's e-mails have been dominating the news, Sanders just endorsed Clinton, and the conventions are less than a week away.  So the numbers right now don't really matter.

Give it about 3-4 weeks, enough time for a potential Clinton DNC bounce to subside, and then the polls really start to matter.

Also, LOL at Q's absurd swings in Florida.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #42 on: July 13, 2016, 11:08:00 AM »

Gotta love how 75% agree that prejudice against minorities is a HUGE problem across these states, and they still vote for that bigot racist sexist Donald Trump. Glad to see the media meme is not fooling some people.

I don't need the media to tell me that everything that spews forth from his mouth is ignorant, devoid of substance, and playing to the very worst impulses of white America.  His words.  Not the media's take.  How can anyone watch a Trump speech and not be appalled and terrified?

Fifteen years of "reality TV" and "infotainment" has decayed any discernment among Americans.  It's utterly tragic.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #43 on: July 13, 2016, 11:12:39 AM »

Glorious, Glorious, Glorious polls! Get aboard the Trump train, red avatars!

Trump-mentum....
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Reginald
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« Reply #44 on: July 13, 2016, 11:21:01 AM »

lol the first thing I did was check the PA partisan topline, because:

QU is routinely undersampling Democrats in PA and I don't know why. Registration statistics and the 2012 exit poll show about a ten point margin for Democrats, but this poll has a (weighted!) four point margin, last month's had a five point margin, and the one in April had a Republican plurality.

And lo and behold, Dems have a one-point advantage over Republicans for this (weighted) sample. Baffling.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #45 on: July 13, 2016, 11:21:44 AM »

Quinnipiac is garbage, garbage, garbage. The stupid thing is that people will harp on these polls for months and then be shocked when Trump loses. No one has learned anything from 2012.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #46 on: July 13, 2016, 11:23:39 AM »

I wonder if NBC feels embarrassed for putting Florida in the lean clinton column last week... http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html RCP has Trump in the lead in the average now...
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Seriously?
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« Reply #47 on: July 13, 2016, 11:25:47 AM »

Quinnipiac is garbage, garbage, garbage. The stupid thing is that people will harp on these polls for months and then be shocked when Trump loses. No one has learned anything from 2012.
A 538 "A-" pollster is garbage because you don't like the messenger. Gotcha.

Look, it's three data points. There's nothing really to get excited about. However, this reinforces the narrative of basically a slim lead for Lying Crooked Hillary! at this point in time. If you are a red avatar, the next few weeks shouldn't be very fun. But things will come back to equilibrium post conventions.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #48 on: July 13, 2016, 11:26:45 AM »

All of these polls dramatically overstate the white vote from 2012. Remember that Gallup messed up in 2012 because they dramatically overstated the white vote in their poll sample.

It's amazing how some people here are excited because a white supremacist is leading a crappy poll. The truth is coming to light and it is ugly.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #49 on: July 13, 2016, 11:28:24 AM »

Quinnipiac is garbage, garbage, garbage. The stupid thing is that people will harp on these polls for months and then be shocked when Trump loses. No one has learned anything from 2012.
A 538 "A-" pollster is garbage because you don't like the messenger. Gotcha.

Look, it's three data points. There's nothing really to get excited about. However, this reinforces the narrative of basically a slim lead for Lying Crooked Hillary! at this point in time. If you are a red avatar, the next few weeks shouldn't be very fun. But things will come back to equilibrium post conventions.

It's a crappy poll. It has the white vote higher than it was in 2012, which is not going to happen. The white vote drops every cycle, it doesn't go up.

If you really want a white supremacist to be President, you have issues. I put you on ignore, so don't bother replying to any of my posts anymore.
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