What Would it Take For a Republican to Win in the Northeast?

[HisGrace]

Republicans losing in the Northeast so badly in presidential elections is something that statistically shouldn't happen given that it's the whitest and most wealthy part of the country. You'd think it would be their base.

1. How incompetent/extreme of a Democrat would it take to lose northeastern states in this day and age? Would it be possible for there to be a Democratic version of Trump who would appeal to red state voters but turn off people in the northeast by being too populist?

2. Could a socially/culturally liberal (pro-choice, pro gay marriage, thinks climate change and evolution are real exc.) who is center right on other things win middle/upper class white voters in the northeast by neutralizing the social issue?

3. Could a Republican actually from New York/Boston win in that part of the country? It obviously didn't work for Mitt Romney, but what about someone who was a local hero?

If you look at recent history, it's not uncommon for socially moderate/liberal Republicans to win elections in the northeast, so it's a little odd that it hasn't ever translated to presidential elections.

[IceSpear]

It would take a realignment or massive black swan event such as an economic collapse under an incumbent Democrat, 9/11-esque terrorist attack, a serious and grave scandal, etc.

Republicans can win local elections like governorships because people eventually get tired of one party rule, and those politicians are not forced to pander to the evangelicals and other far righties like those running for president have to.

Also, New England =/= the Northeast. PA/NJ/NY/DE/MD are hardly lily white.

[Kingpoleon]

New England? I could see in 2028 Connecticut, New Hampshire, and Maine all voting Republican, alongside the Northeastern state, Pennsylvania.

Let's say the Presidentjal list is:
2017-2021: Hillary Clinton/Elizabeth Warren
2021-2029: John Kasich/Senator Richard Tisei

The Republican ticket(VP Richard Tisei/Governor Marilinda Garcia) faces off against Carte Goodwin and Ben McAdams.

288 - 250 Democratic win.

[Camaro33]

It is going to take a major realignment of the parties and their views for New England to even be close to competitive for Republicans. No serving Republican in the United States today could win more than New Hampshire (even that's a long shot) in the region today.

[hopper]

Actually run on a competent agenda and do not call Mexicans rapists. Rhetoric like that is a no-go in the Northeast even with White Voters yes even White Males. Bush W. didn't do that bad in the Northeast in 2004 except for RI, MA and VT even though he lost every Northeastern State. He got 43% in MD, 44% in CT and 46% in NJ. Thats not that bad. If Republicans could have built off of that from 2008-2016 they could have had something good going in the Northeast but they didn't do that at all. Instead their Presidential Nominees do stupid things like saying things like self-deportation and calling Mexicans rapists.

[Blue3]

Also, New England =/= the Northeast. PA/NJ/NY/DE/MD are hardly lily white.

...neither is New England.

Rhode Island is like 33% Hispanic.

[Blue3]

Also, New England =/= the Northeast. PA/NJ/NY/DE/MD are hardly lily white.

...neither is New England.

Rhode Island is like 33% Hispanic.

More like 12% buddy. And we all know that's more Portuguese than Mexican. You guys don't have as many minorities as the other Northeastern states do.

Nice try though.

Um, no. The urban core of RI is over 20% Hispanic (Providence, Pawtucket, Central Falls). And if you look at school-age children in those areas, it's closer to 50%.

And Portuguese aren't Hispanic. And they're from a totally different immigration wave. The Portuguese here are from Portugal itself or the islands.

[pppolitics]

There would have to be a realignment where the Republicans would win the northeast and the Democrats would win the south.