My "Peak Johnson" Map

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

Is this what a Gary Johnson best-case scenario map looks like?

[Deblano]

I'm guessing Johnson pulled a Perot in your map?

How much of the popular vote did Johnson get?

[sparkey]

So... basically he does so well in MT and AZ that they flip? And maybe puts TX into play?

I can definitely imagine MT being one of his best states, like top 3. But I don't see him taking so much from Trump that he flips a state, if for no other reason than that he seems to be taking more from Clinton in polls. Are you projecting that MT will go to Clinton regardless of Johnson?

(inb4 "hur hur his best-case scenario is zero states lulz")

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

I'm guessing Johnson pulled a Perot in your map?

How much of the popular vote did Johnson get?

Probably 15% nationally, but over 25% in some states.  AZ would be like 39-35-24.  TX would be 38-33-29.

[Crumpets]

Seems about right, although if he's getting ~20% nationwide, I think he might be able to flip Utah. Perot's problem, like UKIP's, is the lack of regionalized support. Johnson can at least bet on the inter-mountain west to be his best area regardless of how he does, and he'll focus his efforts there if he can raise money to run ads and stuff like that.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

So... basically he does so well in MT and AZ that they flip? And maybe puts TX into play?

I can definitely imagine MT being one of his best states, like top 3. But I don't see him taking so much from Trump that he flips a state, if for no other reason than that he seems to be taking more from Clinton in polls. Are you projecting that MT will go to Clinton regardless of Johnson?

(inb4 "hur hur his best-case scenario is zero states lulz")

This map probably represents Clinton 47% Trump 38% Johnson 15%

Johnson takes a slight bit more from from Clinton currently, but I'm assuming that Johnson has probably peaked with Clinton supporters, and any further gains will come from undecideds and a Trump collapse.

MT would go from maybe 54-46 Trump to 38-37-25 Clinton.

Arizona would go to Clinton in an 9-point national win anyway.  It probably would go from 51-49 to 39-35-26.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

Seems about right, although if he's getting ~20% nationwide, I think he might be able to flip Utah. Perot's problem, like UKIP's, is the lack of regionalized support. Johnson can at least bet on the inter-mountain west to be his best area regardless of how he does, and he'll focus his efforts there if he can raise money to run ads and stuff like that.

He's not as pan-regional as Perot was.  Some areas would be non-starters for Johnson.  He'll probably do very poorly in the Deep South (except for Georgia), and the Mid-Atlantic will also be terrible for him.

I still have Hillary Clinton getting >50% of the popular vote in states totaling 258 EVs.  As opposed to 1992, when Bill Clinton only took majorities in DC and Arkansas.

If Johnson does top 20%, his support is concentrated enough to pick up a couple of states (though it would also flip more states to Clinton):

Clinton 444 (44% PV)
Trump 80 (35% PV)
Johnson 14 (20% PV)

[Deblano]

Seems about right, although if he's getting ~20% nationwide, I think he might be able to flip Utah. Perot's problem, like UKIP's, is the lack of regionalized support. Johnson can at least bet on the inter-mountain west to be his best area regardless of how he does, and he'll focus his efforts there if he can raise money to run ads and stuff like that.

Yeah, If the Libertarians become a major party, I'd say that they would get a hearty amount of support in the Rocky Mountain regions, the Southwest, and Alaska.

[Young Conservative]

Mississippi is not a state johnson would do well in. If anything in a state like that Johnson would take more from Hillary!

[YaBoyNY]

Johnson isn't winning NH or ME-2 lol.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

Johnson isn't winning NH or ME-2 lol.

Johnson isn't getting 20% nationally, either.