Nate Silver prediction

[SingingAnalyst]

Nate Silver prediction as of July 6: Clinton 48.6% / 347 EV (2012 + NC); Trump 42.3% / 191 EV; Johnson 7.7%

[TomC]

Trump gets about a third of Johnson's 7.7%- gets him to about 44.5. Clinton takes AZ.

[SingingAnalyst]

Trump gets about a third of Johnson's 7.7%- gets him to about 44.5. Clinton takes AZ.

Interesting. Clinton taking AZ would represent a sea change, though Silver sees it as quite likely.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

Trump gets about a third of Johnson's 7.7%- gets him to about 44.5. Clinton takes AZ.

If the election is 48.6% to 44.5% and Clinton picks up AZ, Trump must make gains elsewhere to offset.  Which means he keeps NC and gains OH, at the very least.  358-180 is not a realistic EV result from a 4-point victory.

[SingingAnalyst]

Trump gets about a third of Johnson's 7.7%- gets him to about 44.5. Clinton takes AZ.

If the election is 48.6% to 44.5% and Clinton picks up AZ, Trump must make gains elsewhere to offset.  Which means he keeps NC and gains OH, at the very least.  358-180 is not a realistic EV result from a 4-point victory.

If I may, I think the commenter meant Trump would pick up 1/3 of Johnson's support, not necessarily that Clinton would not pick up any. He may even think Clinton would pick up most of the other 2/3, putting her at 52-53% in which case picking up AZ is reasonable.

[Devout Centrist]

This is merely the look today. I don't see much of an issue with the current predictions, although I see Clinton picking up some of Johnson's support given the demographics that the Pew poll suggest support him.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

Trump gets about a third of Johnson's 7.7%- gets him to about 44.5. Clinton takes AZ.

If the election is 48.6% to 44.5% and Clinton picks up AZ, Trump must make gains elsewhere to offset.  Which means he keeps NC and gains OH, at the very least.  358-180 is not a realistic EV result from a 4-point victory.

If I may, I think the commenter meant Trump would pick up 1/3 of Johnson's support, not necessarily that Clinton would not pick up any. He may even think Clinton would pick up most of the other 2/3, putting her at 52-53% in which case picking up AZ is reasonable.

Ah, I see.  An 8-point spread would almost certainly flip AZ, the way things are looking right now.

[SingingAnalyst]

This is merely the look today. I don't see much of an issue with the current predictions, although I see Clinton picking up some of Johnson's support given the demographics that the Pew poll suggest support him.

True; the Pew poll has Trump third, at 21%, among 18-29 year olds, behind Clinton (47%) and Johnson (22%).

[CivicParticipant]

Totally off and biased

[TomC]

Trump gets about a third of Johnson's 7.7%- gets him to about 44.5. Clinton takes AZ.

If the election is 48.6% to 44.5% and Clinton picks up AZ, Trump must make gains elsewhere to offset.  Which means he keeps NC and gains OH, at the very least.  358-180 is not a realistic EV result from a 4-point victory.

If I may, I think the commenter meant Trump would pick up 1/3 of Johnson's support, not necessarily that Clinton would not pick up any. He may even think Clinton would pick up most of the other 2/3, putting her at 52-53% in which case picking up AZ is reasonable.

I meant Trump would get better than 42.3 and Johnson would get less than 7.7 (though I think he'll do considerably better in the southwest), not saying these hypothetical voters hypothetically move to someone else. It's as much about who doesn't show up as it is who shifts from one candidate to another.

On the other about where Trump gains if Clinton takes AZ- from 2012 he gains in the Midwest but doesn't necessarily flip any states, though i think Iowa is possible as is NC. But my view is AZ will trend towards Clinton so if you are using the 2012 formula, AZ will go Dem with a smaller national Dem margin *than it would have* four years ago. Trump is a bad fit for the state, Johnson will do better here than in the east, McCain in struggling comparatively against a female democrat, and Hispanic voters, who there are more of and will turn out in better numbers, will move towards Clinton.

[IceSpear]

PV - Both Trump and Clinton pick up most of Johnson's support
EV - Spot on

[Devout Centrist]

Totally off and biased

Do show me the statistics and model you built.

I'll wait.

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

Now, he is an underestimating by how much Trump will lose in the U.S. Popular Vote and Electoral College.

And you know this - how?

Favorable vs. Unfavorable Spread, among other things.

Clinton is 15 down, TrumpMillerBarron is down 27.


It's difficult for cultists to grasp, but rightly or wrongly, their orange billionaire conman leader is hated by over half the nation. That makes winning against anything other than a totally eviscerated opponent extremely difficult. At this point I think it would take a combination of disasters that could be blamed on the Democrats and Clinton for her to have a real chance to lose. (A war with Russia combined with an economic collapse domestically could probably do it.)

[Sir Mohamed]

The PV is way way off. Johnson isn't anywhere near seven. I think he'll end up with around two percent of the vote.

[Dabeav]

The PV is way way off. Johnson isn't anywhere near seven. I think he'll end up with around two percent of the vote.

Considering how many hate Trump and Clinton? I'm not sure it's that far off. But a lot can change at the DNC and RNCs (is Bernie gonna go rogue?  Are they going to try to dump Trump?).