Republican Landslide if Latinos start Voting Like African-Americans

[Sorenroy]

It does not need to be for this election, but, basically, what is the best a Republican could do against a Democrat minus a scandal/collapse or major realignment if Latinos start voting like African-Americans.

Inspired by my post over on the new Latino poll thread.

If Latinos start voting like blacks can someone explain to me how the hell will a Republican win in the future a presidential election?

Assuming Latinos start voting the same as African-Americans, and voter turnout goes back to where it was around 2004 (lets say because all the Obama support came from him being black and not that every group is voting more) for African-Americans and 2000 for Latinos and Republicans elect someone a little better then Bush for minority appeal, plus a fall for "others" in the same sense and a 10% Republican swing for whites and a 5% increase in turnout and you end up with this:

Republican — 52.9%, 354 EVs
Democrat — 45.4%, 184 EVs

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
Group — Support/Turnout
White, College-Educated — 61%R/82%
White, Non-College-Educated — 67%R/62%
Black — 86%D/58%
Hispanic/Latino — 86%D/37%
Asian/Other — 56%D/39%

Resources:

Party Support by Race

Voter Turnout by Race

I would suggest using 538's 2016 swing tool as that is a simple, easy way to enter in the numbers.

This is a far better demographic calculator tool...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html

Same numbers (whites as a whole 64%R/73%), different tool:

Republican — 53.4%, 341 EVs
Democrat — 44.6%, 197 EVs

[Human]

[ElectionsGuy]

Republicans would have to win around 70% of the white vote to get a margin near Obama '08.

[Sorenroy]

[Big Image]

I know, and I don't expect that it will happen, but, just like about 90% of the other maps on this forum, it's a hypothetical.

Republicans would have to win around 70% of the white vote to get a margin near Obama '08.

According to the 2012 exits, a 10% shift to Republicans would result in a 64-34 Republican white win, which is what my map has.

[Vega]

This is a far better demographic calculator tool...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html

[ElectionsGuy]

[Big Image]

I know, and I don't expect that it will happen, but, just like about 90% of the other maps on this forum, it's a hypothetical.

Republicans would have to win around 70% of the white vote to get a margin near Obama '08.

According to the 2012 exits, a 10% shift to Republicans would result in a 64-34 Republican white win, which is what my map has.

Ah yes the way I was calculating it I was assuming blacks and Latinos voted over 90% D, whereas you have 86%.

[Devout Centrist]

Possible? Sure. Lightning could strike you while you're having sex, but the odds are higher that will happen than the above scenario.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Polling from outfits that specialize in Latino matters shows a much bleaker picture for TRUMP with him consistently getting only 10-15% of the Hispanic vote.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Even the above map is probably too generous, since white voters wouldn't trend uniformly Republican across the nation.

[Meclazine for Israel]

"if Latinos start Voting Like African-Americans"

Then it would be a Democratic landslide logically.

[Boston Bread]

If Hispanics also turned out like African Americans, Texas would be a blue state.

[ElectionsGuy]

If Hispanics also turned out like African Americans, Texas would be a blue state.

Actually, no. Wendy Davis would've gotten 45-46% if that was the case, but not close to a win. Even if Hispanics made up much more of the electorate (say 22%) it would be something like 49-50% (enough for a purple state, but not enough if Dems keep shedding rural whites).

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Questions we need to be asking (and tbh I ask these questions to all Permanent Majority Demographic Wave lolbros, so apologies if I'm unnecessarily catty):

1) Is the experience of Latinos identical to the experience of African Americans?

2) Is the experience of Latinos uniform across the regions of the United States?

3) (really a corollary to 1) Is the experience of Latinos unlikely to change over the next 20-50 years?

4) Is immigration from Latin American countries likely to continue at the rate that it has for the past 30 years?  

For a real Democratic Demographic wave, you need all 4 of those questions to be a resounding 'yes.' I'm of the opinion that the answer to all 4 of those questions is 'no.'

The corollary for this particular flavor is:

"Is opinion of Latinos uniform across the country?"

I also suspect the answer to this question is no.

[Boston Bread]

If Hispanics also turned out like African Americans, Texas would be a blue state.

Actually, no. Wendy Davis would've gotten 45-46% if that was the case, but not close to a win. Even if Hispanics made up much more of the electorate (say 22%) it would be something like 49-50% (enough for a purple state, but not enough if Dems keep shedding rural whites).

True, although I meant if Hispanics turned out and voted at the same rate as blacks then Democrats would usually win Texas. And I don't think Dems have any rural whites left to shed in Texas.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

so just for fun, i took the thread title literally and set hispanic vote-share and turnout equal to african-americans, and then inched up the white republican vote until republicans win again. this was the result:


the tipping point was texas.

[Devout Centrist]

If Hispanics also turned out like African Americans, Texas would be a blue state.

Actually, no. Wendy Davis would've gotten 45-46% if that was the case, but not close to a win. Even if Hispanics made up much more of the electorate (say 22%) it would be something like 49-50% (enough for a purple state, but not enough if Dems keep shedding rural whites).

But the turnout and white vote swing suggested is so illogical and ludicrous that it makes the scenario meaningless.

[ElectionsGuy]

If Hispanics also turned out like African Americans, Texas would be a blue state.

Actually, no. Wendy Davis would've gotten 45-46% if that was the case, but not close to a win. Even if Hispanics made up much more of the electorate (say 22%) it would be something like 49-50% (enough for a purple state, but not enough if Dems keep shedding rural whites).

True, although I meant if Hispanics turned out and voted at the same rate as blacks then Democrats would usually win Texas. And I don't think Dems have any rural whites left to shed in Texas.

Very true, the biggest thing holding Democrats in Texas is terrible turnout, bad nationally too but worse in Texas.

No biggie

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[Devout Centrist]

If Hispanics also turned out like African Americans, Texas would be a blue state.

Actually, no. Wendy Davis would've gotten 45-46% if that was the case, but not close to a win. Even if Hispanics made up much more of the electorate (say 22%) it would be something like 49-50% (enough for a purple state, but not enough if Dems keep shedding rural whites).

But the turnout and white vote swing suggested is so illogical and ludicrous that it makes the scenario meaningless.

I don't suggest white vote swings, and Latino turnout at 22% of the electorate (not turnout rate) is realistic for 2016, no?

I was referencing the OP, I apologize.

[Oak Hills]

so just for fun, i took the thread title literally and set hispanic vote-share and turnout equal to african-americans, and then inched up the white republican vote until republicans win again. this was the result:


the tipping point was texas.

How much of the white vote did you have to give to the Republicans?

[Young Conservative]

If Hispanics also turned out like African Americans, Texas would be a blue state.

Actually i tried that and texas remained republican. Texas hispanics are also far more conservative than the national average.

[Devout Centrist]

If Hispanics also turned out like African Americans, Texas would be a blue state.

Actually i tried that and texas remained republican. Texas hispanics are also far more conservative than the national average.

If all other demographics voted and turned out exactly the same, Texas goes blue, barely.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Something like this

Democratic Candidate 205 EV 50%
Republican Candidate 235 EV 47%