NJ primary analysis

[jman123]

I've noticed while studying the NJ primary results that in areas that were heavily urban and hispanic in Bergen, Hudson ,and Passaic County Cruz came in a comfortable second. Cruz's base was evangelicals. Hispanics are not evangelicals to my knowledge   I noticed this in the Bronx in ny primary results in April in Hispanic areas there

[Crumpets]

Cruz is, however, Hispanic.

[cinyc]

Cruz is, however, Hispanic.

There is a sizeable Cuban community in Union City, Hudson County and surrounding communities.

[jman123]

Cruz is, however, Hispanic.

There is a sizeable Cuban community in Union City, Hudson County.

Think that accounted for his second place showing there where kasich was runner up everywhere else in NJ?

[cinyc]

Cruz is, however, Hispanic.

There is a sizeable Cuban community in Union City, Hudson County.

Think that accounted for his second place showing there where kasich was runner up everywhere else in NJ?

Where do you see Cruz came in second in Hudson County as a whole?  Official results put him in third countywide.  Cruz did overperform in the more Hispanic areas of the county (North Bergen (13.6%), West New York (12.0%), Jersey City (10.7%), Union City (10.7%)) than the more non-Hispanic white areas like Hoboken (6.7%) and Secaucus (3.76%), though.

I don't think there's any doubt being Hispanic was a benefit for Cruz in Hispanic areas, though.  He also came in second in the Bronx.

[jman123]

Cruz is, however, Hispanic.

There is a sizeable Cuban community in Union City, Hudson County.

Think that accounted for his second place showing there where kasich was runner up everywhere else in NJ?

Where do you see Cruz came in second in Hudson County as a whole?  Official results put him in third countywide.  Cruz did overperform in the more Hispanic areas of the county (North Bergen (13.6%), West New York (12.0%), Jersey City (10.7%), Union City (10.7%)) than the more non-Hispanic white areas like Hoboken (6.7%) and Secaucus (3.76%), though.

I don't think there's any doubt being Hispanic was a benefit for Cruz in Hispanic areas, though.  He also came in second in the Bronx.

I knew in Hudson kasich came second overall but Cruz did pretty well in the Hispanic majority areas

[The Night Owlditor]

Not that many Hispanics/Latinos vote Republican anymore...?

[cinyc]

Not that many Hispanics/Latinos vote Republican anymore...?

Well, some obviously do (especially Cubans), and unlike Non-Hispanic Whites in most of New York City and New Jersey, areas with big Hispanic populations preferred Cruz to Kasich enough to put him in second place there.  Trump still won most of those areas, though.

[The Night Owlditor]

Not that many Hispanics/Latinos vote Republican anymore...?

Well, some obviously do (especially Cubans), and unlike Non-Hispanic Whites in most of New York City and New Jersey, areas with big Hispanic populations preferred Cruz to Kasich enough to put him in second place there.  Trump still won most of those areas, though.

I know *some* do, that's why I didn't say "no Hispanics/Latinos vote Republican." I meant that the percentage of Hispanic/Latino Republicans is probably too small in those heavily urban areas in blue states to try to analyze or extrapolate.

Didn't Obama win Cubans in 2012, mainly younger Cubans? If that's the case, it looks like they'll be the last segment of the Hispanic/Latino community to leave the GOP tent.

[Seriously?]

Not that many Hispanics/Latinos vote Republican anymore...?

Well, some obviously do (especially Cubans), and unlike Non-Hispanic Whites in most of New York City and New Jersey, areas with big Hispanic populations preferred Cruz to Kasich enough to put him in second place there.  Trump still won most of those areas, though.

I know *some* do, that's why I didn't say "no Hispanics/Latinos vote Republican." I meant that the percentage of Hispanic/Latino Republicans is probably too small in those heavily urban areas in blue states to try to analyze or extrapolate.

Not really. Outside of a few areas of Manhattan, a lot of the NYC area is pretty racially stratified and you can drill down to the precinct level data in those places to tell exactly where the vote is coming from. (I can't speak for NJ or other states).

Cruz did do well in the 15th CD of NY, which encompasses the South Bronx, specifically in areas that had a good number of Hispanics in particular precincts in Bronx County. Of course, Republicans are few and far between there. Trump still had enough votes to take all three delegates from that CD.

[cinyc]

I know *some* do, that's why I didn't say "no Hispanics/Latinos vote Republican." I meant that the percentage of Hispanic/Latino Republicans is probably too small in those heavily urban areas in blue states to try to analyze or extrapolate.

Didn't Obama win Cubans in 2012, mainly younger Cubans? If that's the case, it looks like they'll be the last segment of the Hispanic/Latino community to leave the GOP tent.

But there is enough data to analyze the Hispanic vote.  Just take a look at Hudson County.  Hispanics are a majority in 5 towns - North Bergen, Union City, West New York, Guttenberg and East Newark.  East Newark is too small to extrapolate - there were just 6 Republican votes cast there.  Cruz beat Kasich for second in all the other 4 towns.  Over 100 Republican votes were cast in each of those towns.

On the other hand, Hoboken is 73% non-Hispanic White and only 15% Hispanic.  Kasich beat Cruz there by a 3:1 margin.

Cruz also squeaked into second in The Bronx, actually winning some sparsely populated precincts there (NYC precinct winner map), both in Hispanic and a few African-American areas of the borough.

Therefore, I can conclude that Cruz outperformed in areas of the NYC metro with high Hispanic populations. I don't doubt his last name helped at the margins there.  Could it have been due to non-Hispanics living in Hispanic neighborhoods?  I doubt it - the pattern is too uniform, and the percentage of non-Hispanics living in some of those neighborhoods is very small.  

Cruz also definitely did well with Orthodox Jews in NYC - but that's a different subject.

[jman123]

I know *some* do, that's why I didn't say "no Hispanics/Latinos vote Republican." I meant that the percentage of Hispanic/Latino Republicans is probably too small in those heavily urban areas in blue states to try to analyze or extrapolate.

Didn't Obama win Cubans in 2012, mainly younger Cubans? If that's the case, it looks like they'll be the last segment of the Hispanic/Latino community to leave the GOP tent.

But there is enough data to analyze the Hispanic vote.  Just take a look at Hudson County.  Hispanics are a majority in 5 towns - North Bergen, Union City, West New York, Guttenberg and East Newark.  East Newark is too small to extrapolate - there were just 6 Republican votes cast there.  Cruz beat Kasich for second in all the other 4 towns.  Over 100 Republican votes were cast in each of those towns.

On the other hand, Hoboken is 73% non-Hispanic White and only 15% Hispanic.  Kasich beat Cruz there by a 3:1 margin.

Cruz also squeaked into second in The Bronx, actually winning some sparsely populated precincts there (NYC precinct winner map), both in Hispanic and a few African-American areas of the borough.

Therefore, I can conclude that Cruz outperformed in areas of the NYC metro with high Hispanic populations. I don't doubt his last name helped at the margins there.  Could it have been due to non-Hispanics living in Hispanic neighborhoods?  I doubt it - the pattern is too uniform, and the percentage of non-Hispanics living in some of those neighborhoods is very small.  

Cruz also definitely did well with Orthodox Jews in NYC - but that's a different subject.

the white non hispanic vote is almost non existent in those hispanic areas. Cruz did pretty well to come in second in those urban areas in and around the nyc metro area with majority hispanic populations. Obviously trump won in those areas.