Which result is more likely: Trump in 3rd in VT or Clinton in 3rd in UT?
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  Which result is more likely: Trump in 3rd in VT or Clinton in 3rd in UT?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Who's more likely to finish in 3rd in either VT or UT?
#1
Trump in Vermont		  
#2
Clinton in Utah		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 73

Author Topic: Which result is more likely: Trump in 3rd in VT or Clinton in 3rd in UT?  (Read 682 times)
heatcharger
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« on: July 07, 2016, 01:25:08 PM »
In 1992, Ross Perot finished in 2nd in Utah and Maine. Utah is a very conservative state but does not like the R nominee, and VT is a very liberal state but might not like the D nominee. If Johnson (or Stein) runs a really good campaign, I could see something like this happen:

UT:
Trump 40%
Johnson 30%
Clinton 29%

VT:
Clinton 50%
Johnson/Stein 25%
Trump 24%

I think I'd say Hillary in Utah because the third party vote won't be split as much as it would in Vermont.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #1 on: July 07, 2016, 07:51:50 PM »
I could see Trump finishing 3rd in Utah if there were a revolt and the GOP Establishment just endorsed Johnson/Weld.
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Vosem
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« Reply #2 on: July 07, 2016, 08:48:29 PM »
I voted for the latter, but I think Trump in third in Utah is likelier than either scenario. Polls have repeatedly shown that Johnson is very likely to break 15% in Utah, and considering his national numbers he should be >20. There is no actual polling evidence showing Stein actually doing so well in Vermont, even though logic suggests it should be the case.
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CivicParticipant
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« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2016, 08:54:06 PM »
Clinton in UT
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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #4 on: July 07, 2016, 09:03:34 PM »
Earlier on, I would have said Utah due to the slight chance of Romney running.  Now, the calculation is which candidate is more likely to completely implode, and that is Trump.
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HisGrace
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« Reply #5 on: July 08, 2016, 02:29:31 PM »
I could see Trump finishing even 4th in Vermont, behind Clinton and both Johnson/Stein.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #6 on: July 08, 2016, 05:32:56 PM »
Quote from: HisGrace on July 08, 2016, 02:29:31 PM
I could see Trump finishing even 4th in Vermont, behind Clinton and both Johnson/Stein.
Not inconceivable. I can certainly see Trump finishing 4th in Cambridge, Amherst, and Northampton MA.
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temmie b. <3
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« Reply #7 on: July 08, 2016, 05:51:04 PM »
Neither.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #8 on: July 08, 2016, 06:01:40 PM »
the new JOHNSON'S GONNA GET LIKE 35% OF THE VOTE meme is kind of annoying.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: July 08, 2016, 06:05:06 PM »
Quote from: Maxwell on July 08, 2016, 06:01:40 PM
the new JOHNSON'S GONNA GET LIKE 35% OF THE VOTE meme is kind of annoying.

You would've been loving it a couple years ago. Tongue
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Maxwell
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« Reply #10 on: July 08, 2016, 06:07:44 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on July 08, 2016, 06:05:06 PM
Quote from: Maxwell on July 08, 2016, 06:01:40 PM
the new JOHNSON'S GONNA GET LIKE 35% OF THE VOTE meme is kind of annoying.

You would've been loving it a couple years ago. Tongue

I (probably) wouldn't be believing it, though.
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Human
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« Reply #11 on: July 08, 2016, 07:05:43 PM »
Donald Trump coming third in VT
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