Latest Latino Voter National Tracking Poll: Clinton 80%, Trump 13%

[IceSpear]

If Latinos start voting like blacks can someone explain to me how the hell will a Republican win in the future a presidential election?

Their goal is to turn the entire country into Mississippi, where your race determines your party. They'd still win in a landslide if that was the case.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Latinos start voting like blacks can someone explain to me how the hell will a Republican win in the future a presidential election?

Their goal is to turn the entire country into Mississippi, where your race determines your party. They'd still win in a landslide if that was the case.

It'd be a brilliant plan if only for the misogynism (bye, bye white women) and the anti-intellectualism (bye, bye college-educated whites).

[IceSpear]

If Latinos start voting like blacks can someone explain to me how the hell will a Republican win in the future a presidential election?

Their goal is to turn the entire country into Mississippi, where your race determines your party. They'd still win in a landslide if that was the case.

It'd be a brilliant plan if only for the misogynism (bye, bye white women) and the anti-intellectualism (bye, bye college-educated whites).

The white Misssissippi women and white Mississippi college grads don't seem to mind it.

[RINO Tom]

inb4 "Romney's performance among Latinos is the floor for a Republican"

It could have been.

[Maxwell]

If this is remotely true, then we have to have a serious conversation about polling in America and how better to reach out to Spanish speaking households. Because Hillary wins by a lot with these numbers.

[Sorenroy]

If Latinos start voting like blacks can someone explain to me how the hell will a Republican win in the future a presidential election?

Assuming Latinos start voting the same as African-Americans, and voter turnout goes back to where it was around 2004 (lets say because all the Obama support came from him being black and not that every group is voting more) for African-Americans and 2000 for Latinos and Republicans elect someone a little better then Bush for minority appeal, plus a fall for "others" in the same sense and a 5% Republican swing for whites and a 10% increase in turnout and you end up with this:

Republican — 52.9%, 354 EVs
Democrat — 45.4%, 184 EVs

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
Group — Support/Turnout
White, College-Educated — 61%R/82%
White, Non-College-Educated — 67%R/62%
Black — 86%D/58%
Hispanic/Latino — 86%D/37%
Asian/Other — 56%D/39%

Resources:

Party Support by Race

Voter Turnout by Race

[Suburbia]

If Latinos start voting like blacks can someone explain to me how the hell will a Republican win in the future a presidential election?

You can't have a one party country. Not only that, Democrats are weak with welfare spending. Welfare rolls would go up if the Democrats get four to twenty more years. You need party balance.

[Virginiá]

Assuming Latinos start voting the same as African-Americans, and voter turnout goes back to where it was around 2004 (lets say because all the Obama support came from him being black and not that every group is voting more) for African-Americans and 2000 for Latinos and Republicans elect someone a little better then Bush for minority appeal, plus a fall for "others" in the same sense and a 5% Republican swing for whites and a 10% increase in turnout and you end up with this:

I assume you're using that scenario for argument's sake, but African American turnout is not going to plummet to 2004 levels or worse. It was already trending higher before Obama. I don't doubt that Obama caused a huge boost, but studies also show that people who vote once tend to vote again, the habit reinforces itself every time they vote. I wouldn't be surprised if African American turnout does drop in the next cycle or two, but probably only by a point or two. Given the large amount of racial animosity and aggravation over police brutality in black communities since 2012, I also would not be surprised if African American turnout stays the same as 2012, if not edging a tiny bit higher. It's pretty clear the AA community is fired up, but whether that translates into votes is another question.

Republicans seem to have really staked a good bit of hope on the 2004 turnout scenario and/or the great white voter grab of 2016, but the truth is this country is diversifying much faster than they are picking up new white voters (or new voters of any kind actually), so Republicans should stop fooling themselves and start getting used to 2012-style electorates from now on, most likely with higher Hispanic turnout and deeper Democratic support from Hispanic voters.

[hopper]

It is simply astounding to look at where we are. 3 years ago the GOP was talking about fixing its problem with Latinos, working on immigration reform and declaring Rubio the 'Republican Savior'. If anyone told you that the GOP nominee would be running on a platform of building a wall and a 'deportation force' you would never have believed them. If you told them that nominee would be Donald Trump, you would have assumed they were on drugs.

Wow...you are going about building a freakin wall? Who cares. I agree with you on the deportation force thing though.

On the topic of Immmigration Reform "Conservative Talk Radio" put a fork into that not happening. Conservative Talk Radio has alot of power on the issue of beng anti-immigration reform for some reason.

[hopper]

RIP Battleground Nevada
Hello Battleground Arizona

Hillary isn't blowing out Trump in Nevada per Nate Silver's pollling. True Hillary is competitive in Arizona.

[hopper]

Assuming Latinos start voting the same as African-Americans, and voter turnout goes back to where it was around 2004 (lets say because all the Obama support came from him being black and not that every group is voting more) for African-Americans and 2000 for Latinos and Republicans elect someone a little better then Bush for minority appeal, plus a fall for "others" in the same sense and a 5% Republican swing for whites and a 10% increase in turnout and you end up with this:

I assume you're using that scenario for argument's sake, but African American turnout is not going to plummet to 2004 levels or worse. It was already trending higher before Obama. I don't doubt that Obama caused a huge boost, but studies also show that people who vote once tend to vote again, the habit reinforces itself every time they vote. I wouldn't be surprised if African American turnout does drop in the next cycle or two, but probably only by a point or two. Given the large amount of racial animosity and aggravation over police brutality in black communities since 2012, I also would not be surprised if African American turnout stays the same as 2012, if not edging a tiny bit higher. It's pretty clear the AA community is fired up, but whether that translates into votes is another question.

Republicans seem to have really staked a good bit of hope on the 2004 turnout scenario and/or the great white voter grab of 2016, but the truth is this country is diversifying much faster than they are picking up new white voters (or new voters of any kind actually), so Republicans should stop fooling themselves and start getting used to 2012-style electorates from now on, most likely with higher Hispanic turnout and deeper Democratic support from Hispanic voters.

Well for a few more Presidential Cycles they will lose 2012 style. I think by 2024 or 2028 the Republicans will win the Presidency.

Hispanic % of the electorate goes up by 1% every 4 years of each Presidential Cycle. If Trump wins only 15% of Hispanics it will be the worst showing with Hispanic Voters since Carter won in 1976.

[hopper]

If Latinos start voting like blacks can someone explain to me how the hell will a Republican win in the future a presidential election?

You can't have a one party country. Not only that, Democrats are weak with welfare spending. Welfare rolls would go up if the Democrats get four to twenty more years. You need party balance.

Yeah but without the US House Majority the Dems can't do anything on the issue of welfare spending."The Power of the Purse" starts in the US House.

[hopper]

If this is remotely true, then we have to have a serious conversation about polling in America and how better to reach out to Spanish speaking households. Because Hillary wins by a lot with these numbers.

Yeah but I think newer Hispanic Voters that are just entering the electorate speak English pretty well who happen to be pretty young. Of course their parents maybe be billingual or speak some english but aren't entirealy fluent in English.