Election predictions

[Human]

Here's my prediction:



Please comment on my prediction, and also make your own predictions.

[Dr. Arch]

Looks pretty much identical to my current map. I do have NE-02 as a Clinton pickup.

[Redban]

64% turnout!?!

[Devout Centrist]

Kinda early for a prediction, don't you think?

I'll post mine the week before election day.

[TomC]

64% turnout!?!

Yeah, the rest is good but turnout will be lower. If Clinton surpasses Obama's raw vote in 12, it won't be by much.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

If the email thing goes away (and it looks like it will, thank God), I have a feeling things will continue to roll Clinton's way.  I'm 80% confident Arizona will flip, and it wouldn't shock me if Missouri, Georgia, and NE-2 also flip (thought right now I have them going to Trump).

64% is a really high turnout.  I'm going to say this scenario (let's call it the "standard model") is more like 2008 (57%).

It's really hard to foresee what's going to happen with Donald Trump, though.  There's a "Trump tanks" model in my mind in which turnout falls to 50%, Clinton's raw vote stays the same, and she takes not only MO and GA, but also several of IN, SC, MS, MT, NE-1, KS, UT, and TX.

[TomC]

I'd guess Johnson, Stein et al will get more than 2.8% as well.

[IceSpear]

Around the same as yours.

[AGA]

NE-2 has a PVI of R+4. If Clinton wins by seven points, she will win NE-2 as well.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Clinton/Kaine (D) 270 EV  48%
Trump/Pence (R) 268 EV 46%

Maine and Nebraska will be priority states.

[heatcharger]

Clinton/Kaine (D) 270 EV  48%
Trump/Pence (R) 268 EV 46%

Maine and Nebraska will be priority states.

If Hillary lost Iowa and Colorado, NE-02 was already gone.

If Trump lost New Hampshire, conventional wisdom would tell you ME-02 is also gone, but who knows.

[CivicParticipant]

[Move Forward]

Damnnnnnmnn Hillary swept all the republican states while Trump got the democrat ones

[MIKESOWELL]

If turnout indeed reached 64 percent, I think Hillary would carry at least 35 states.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

If turnout indeed reached 64 percent, I think Hillary would carry at least 35 states.

Doesn't low turnout favor Democrats even more?  They will still come out for Clinton, while independents and Republicans will stay home in disgust.

[Sir Mohamed]

I still don't get it why this forum uses red for Dems and blue of the GOP

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

I still don't get it why this forum uses red for Dems and blue of the GOP

Be the change you want to see in the world.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Clinton/Kaine (D) 270 EV  48%
Trump/Pence (R) 268 EV 46%

Maine and Nebraska will be priority states.

If Hillary lost Iowa and Colorado, NE-02 was already gone.

If Trump lost New Hampshire, conventional wisdom would tell you ME-02 is also gone, but who knows.

I believe that there are forces at work that will shift the Electoral Map somewhat for this election.  Not realignments, but responses to situations different from what has been going on in Presidential races since 2000.

[HilLarry]

Here's my prediction:



Please comment on my prediction, and also make your own predictions.

how did you make this??

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Looks pretty similar to my prediction, though I'm guessing Clinton wins the PV by more like 5.5%.

[egalitt]

Much depends on running mates. If Trump choses the right person he can win 52:48 in popular vote.

[SingingAnalyst]

Clinton 49.6% / 347 EV (same map as yours)
Trump 45.1% / 191 EV
Johnson 3.5% / 0 EV

64% turnout sounds about right.

[Skye]

Around the same as yours, though nowhere near the same turnout.

[RINO Tom]

I still don't get it why this forum uses red for Dems and blue of the GOP

True blue conservatives vs. radical red, bro.

[President Johnson]

TRUMP is the underdog at this time, but I'm nevertheless optimistic and believe in him. Map now in Wikipedia-colors (D blue and R red).