Trump focusing on 17 states (including IN, ME, MN, MO)

[HillOfANight]

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/07/06/donald-trump-campaign-to-target-17-states-in-november-election/

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[Gass3268]

Amazing how New Mexico has gone from a Bush state in 2004 to Safe Dem in just 3 cycles.

[Red Willow]

Another example of the cluelessness of this campaign.

[psychprofessor]

lots of red states to keep trump focused on...arizona, georgia, indiana, missouri, north carolina...

[dspNY]

The fact that he has to focus on Arizona, Georgia, Indiana!, Missouri and to a lesser extent North Carolina shows the profound weakness of his position. Maine, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin are pipe dreams and Pennsylvania is almost a pipe dream

[AGA]

He still does not have much of a campaign structure in these states.

[Adam Griffin]

I assume he means in the Bushie way of "focusing on" states? One-third of those electoral votes are in otherwise reliably GOP states. Are we sure it's not the RNC focusing on these states (i.e.: trying to prevent the Trump Train from costing them valuable Senate, House and Governor seats in states like IN, MO, AZ, GA, NC)?

[ProudModerate2]

Maine !!??

[IceSpear]

#BattlegroundIndiana

[Crumpets]

17 states is a lot to "focus" on.

[HillOfANight]

#BattlegroundIndiana

What happened to #BattlegroundUtah?

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Not Oregon!? B-b-b-but muh trend R whites

Trump's not winning NV, MN, WI, MI, or ME, but I'm not surprised he's trying to. I'm a bit surprised that he's worried about MO/IN, though. Those should be safe for him if he's not losing in a landslide.

[Likely Voter]

I suspect 'focus' means staffing up, but not necessarily spending money on TV ads. Since the Trump campaign has yet to spend any money on TV, we don't know where he will spend that money. Now that he has some, the answer to that may come soon.

The big question is, will he spend big TV money beyond the 10 states that Romney spent on (NC, FL, OH, VA, CO, IA, NV, NH, PA, WI)? If the Clinton campaign goes after some of his defense states (IN, MO, GA, AZ), he may have no choice but to follow. But will he really be spending significantly (or at all) on the 3 new offense states (ME, MI and MN)? Probably not.

[Mallow]

According to FiveThirtyEight, here are the states sorted by how likely it is the current favorite will win (per the polls-plus forecast):
NC: 53.0%
OH: 56.3%
CO: 59.6%
FL: 61.8%
NH: 63.7%
AZ: 66.3%
NV: 66.4%
IA: 68.2%
MO: 70.5%
VA: 70.6%
PA: 73.2%
GA: 75.9%
MN: 79.8%
ME: 80.5%
SC: 80.9%
OR: 82.7%
SD: 83.0%
WI: 83.6%
MT: 83.9%
ND: 84.1%
IN: 84.9%
NM: 84.9%
MS: 86.9%
AK: 86.9%
CT: 88.1%
KS: 88.2%
TX: 89.4%
MI: 89.7%
NJ: 89.8%
WA: 91.2%
DE: 93.1%
UT: 94.6%
TN: 94.6%
NE: 95.0%
RI: 95.8%
KY: 95.9%
IL: 96.7%
AR: 96.8%
LA: 97.6%
VT: 97.7%
WY: 97.8%
AL: 98.0%
CA: 98.8%
WV: 99.0%
ID: 99.0%
NY: 99.1%
MA: 99.1%
OK: 99.8%
HI: 99.8%
MD:>99.9%
DC:>99.9%

Most of them look pretty sane. The only egregious ones are MI, IN, and WI. FiveThirtyEight thinks Clinton has a better shot in TX than Trump does in MI. I agree.

[Landslide Lyndon]

No Utah?

[Iowa+3]

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I'm not. Indiana did go for Obama in 2008. Surprised they have MS and TX rated so solid though.

I'd probably expand to MS, MT, TX, AK.

I wouldn't bother with Wisconsin, Minnesota or Maine.

According to that chart, the most effective use for dollars are:

North Carolina
Ohio
Colorado
Florida
Arizona
Missouri
Georgia
Virginia
Pennsylvania
Iowa
Nevada
New Hampshire

Georgia and Missouri before Virginia and Pennsylvania because he cannot win without Georgia and Missouri. Losing either means Trump loses.

[Ronnie]

It could be worse, but he'd be stretching himself really thin with this list.  If he's losing Missouri and Indiana, he's already losing the popular vote by a significant margin.

I can't say the same thing about Utah, though.  They really hate him there.

[PaperKooper]

The list is entirely normal. 

[Ljube]

The new list is still not the actual list of states he will focus on.

It's not like he is going to tell which states he will target.

[heatcharger]

The new list is still not the actual list of states he will focus on.

It's not like he is going to tell which states he will target.

Um eventually he's going to have to tell someone, preferably his supporters so he can hold rallies and fundraise and stuff...

[Ebsy]

We'll see where he runs ads if he ever gets around to doing that.

[The Night Owlditor]

When he says Maine, is he going to focus on winning the whole state or just the 2nd District?

[Classic Conservative]

When he says Maine, is he going to focus on winning the whole state or just the 2nd District?

Probably ME-2, but he will probably have rallies in ME-1 too.

[C r a b c a k e]

Is it even possible to hold a rally in Maine 2nd? That district basically would require retail politicking around the small towns which a) is more trouble than it's worth for one EV and b) not really what Trump thrives on.

[Gass3268]

Trump now saying he will put Connecticut, Michigan, Oregon and Washington in play

Lol, this guy as no clue whatsoever!