Will Trump be able to flip Michigan and Wisconsin?

[CivicParticipant]

While I do believe that Minnesota is a little out of reach due to its very liberal reputation, I feel as if these two states would be susceptible to Trump's message. Although Trump lost WI in the primaries, I think due to his position on trade (NAFTA, TPP) he has a chance to flip it, explaining that these agreements send jobs overseas and hurt workers. While Hillary has not had a consistent position and adopted Sanders' because she had to run to the left. I also believe he can get about 11% of African Americans and do significantly better than Romney did in 2012. Since Obama is not on the ticket this time I believe that AA turnout will be lower. I think it is difficult for her to hold the Obama coalition together (Young people, independents, Hispanics, and AAs). She lost independents in the primaries while Trump did well, and performed worse with younger votes. I believe that Trump should win the election because of the Obama 2012 working class voters. George W. Bush almost won both of them but still fell a little short. Will these states go red in 2016?

[Dr. Arch]

Wisconsin? Never. Michigan? Almost never, but fractionally possible.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Not a chance. His best hope of winning a Kerry state is Pennsylvania.

[MIKESOWELL]

No, it will not happen, Captain.

[ElectionsGuy]

Very unlikely, he's going to see underwhelming support in SE Wisconsin and Western Michigan, which are already bad signs as those are the most Republican areas of the states.

[AGA]

Usually a typical Republican has a decent chance of winning Wisconsin, but Trump is quite unpopular there and is behind Clinton by 7.4 points in the RCP average. He has a very small chance of winning the state.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html

Michigan is more likely for him to win than Wisconsin, but Clinton still has a large advantage there.

It is very likely that Clinton will beat Trump in both of those states by a substantial margin, and the easiest Great Lakes states for Trump to flip are definitely Ohio and Pennsylvania.

[Seriously?]

WI and MI are the Midwest's versions of OR and NJ. They tease, but end up in the Democrat column by the end of the day.

Trump had a disastrous showing in the primaries in WI. MI would be the more likely pickup, but barring a pretty solid Trump win, it should not be attainable.

[evergreenarbor]

Wisconsin? Never. Michigan? Almost never, but fractionally possible.

[TJ in Oregon]

The Wisconsin Republican Party is scared half their supporters won't show up to vote for downballot races because of Trump. He's not about to win the state barring some epic collapse on Hillary's part.

[IceSpear]

No.

[ProudModerate2]

Highly doubtful to Michigan.
No to Wisconsin.

[wolfsblood07]

Yes.  Trump can win in every region of the country.  He proved it in the primaries and will prove it again in the general election.   Every state is in play for Trump.  He could win everywhere except D.C.  And if he really tried hard there he could sweep every electoral vote.

[Dr. Arch]

Yes.  Trump can win in every region of the country.  He proved it in the primaries and will prove it again in the general election.   Every state is in play.  Except the safe Republican states like Wyoming.

L o L

[wolfsblood07]

Yes.  Trump can win in every region of the country.  He proved it in the primaries and will prove it again in the general election.   Every state is in play.  Except the safe Republican states like Wyoming.

L o L

Bow down to his winning ways!

[CivicParticipant]

Yes.  Trump can win in every region of the country.  He proved it in the primaries and will prove it again in the general election.   Every state is in play.  Except the safe Republican states like Wyoming.

L o L

Bow down to his winning ways!

And he will build that wall and Make America Great Again!

[Ljube]

Michigan maybe.
Wisconsin no.

[MT Treasurer]

He definitely has a better chance of winning WI than MI.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Michigan maybe, Wisconsin no.

But this is if he significantly improves over the course of the campaign. Right now IMHO it's no to both.

[Nyvin]

No,  neither state is competitive.  

Hillary's average polling lead in Wisconsin:   9.6%

Hillary's average polling lead in Michigan:  11.7%

Yeah sure, you can say "polls change" and all that...but you aren't going to see a 12 point swing in the timespan of 4 months.    It's way too late in the game for something so huge to happen.

[Redban]

I think he can flip Michigan. Bush came close in 2004, McCain was polling closely to Obama before the economic collapse in 2008, and Romney lost largely because he opposed the auto bailout ("Let Detroit go bankrupt!"). At the very least, he should be competitive here. Michigan is more likely to flip than Virginia is.

Wisconsin, however, is looking tough. The influential talk radio still opposes Trump, and their dislike was one of the major causes of his massive defeat here. Trump's best hope is that Scott Walker, who will speak at the RNC, will make Wisconsin more accessible.

[Redban]

No,  neither state is competitive.  

Hillary's average polling lead in Wisconsin:   9.6%

Hillary's average polling lead in Michigan:  11.7%

Yeah sure, you can say "polls change" and all that...but you aren't going to see a 12 point swing in the timespan of 4 months.    It's way too late in the game for something so huge to happen.

Those numbers are not reliable because few reputable pollsters have polled those states as yet, and the few polls that are being averaged are old. Michigan, for example, has just one poll since March.

[Gass3268]

Hillary has been up at least 5 points in Wisconsin since last November. I have been saying since the beginning that it will tighten (same with the Senate race), but it is almost impossible for me to see a situation were either Clinton or Feingold lose.

It would be nice to have some recent polling from Michigan from a reputable outlet, not one of those crappy Michigan area firms.

[Sir Mohamed]

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

Wisconsin Republicans hate Trump, and despite the fact that Bernie won the D primary, Wisconsin Democrats are party loyalists and will fall in line and vote Clinton (I haven't seen that borne out in polls, but I haven't gone looking for this data).

Trump has a better shot in Michigan, but only if Clinton collapses and loses by 3-4%.

[Doomer]

No chance at either state.