Misouri and Bellewether Row
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  Misouri and Bellewether Row
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jimrtex
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« Reply #25 on: June 22, 2005, 04:10:16 PM »

Right. In any case, it's still a pretty remarkable phenomenon. Since 1840, the state with the mean center of population has gone with the winner in all except for 1916, which was kind of a strange election because Wilson narrowly won on the basis of his incumbency, which he only had in the first place because of Roosevelt's ultra-successful third-party challenge in 1912... probably the most successful "third party" challenge since 1860, at least.
1788-1808 Maryland.  In 1800 when the electoral votes were split (Maryland usually elected its electors by district), Jefferson had a bare majority of the popular vote.

1812-1852 Virginia.   Went for favorite son Crawford in 1824Voted for Van Buren in 1840, and Cass in 1848

1856 (Virginia or Ohio).  The mean center crossed the Ohio River into Ohio between 1850 and 1860.  Fremont carrried Ohio in 1856

1860-1876.  Ohio.  No misses.

1880 Kentucky (just south of Cincinnati, Ohio)).  Hancock carried Kentucky

1884-1940.  Indiana Hughes in 1916  It helps that Indiana was slightly more Democrat than other NW states such that Cleveland carried it in 1884 and 1892, but not 1888.

1944-1976.  Illinois  Ford in 1976

1980-2004.  Missouri.   No misses.

6 or 7 misses in 55 elections.  Has any single state done better?
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jimrtex
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« Reply #26 on: June 22, 2005, 04:25:33 PM »

1/2 of the population is within 676 miles of the 2000 median center of population.   

This includes everything east of the Mississippi except Florida south of Gainesville; extreme eastern Maryland (Ocean City); Delaware, New Jersey, and New England; all but the eastern edge of Pennsylvania (Chester County but not Delaware County, Allentown but not Bethlehem, Wilkes-Barre but not Scranton); and New York east of roughly Binghamton and Rome.

West of the Mississipi: Louisiana except the extreme SW corner (Lake Charles); Arkansas; Missouri; Iowa; Minnesota except the northwest (roughly from International Falls to just south of the MN-ND-SD intersection; less than 50 miles of eastern South Dakota; Nebraska east of Grand Island; Kansas east of Hutchison; Oklahoma east of just west of OKC; northeastern Texas, including the NE suburbs of Dallas, Sherman-Denison, Rusk, and Lufkin.

Circular Area Profiles
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #27 on: June 23, 2005, 08:30:57 AM »

I don't know.  Considering that Kerry could have very probably won the 2004 election without winning Missouri, the same situation could very likely happen in 2008 as well and it would lose it's status.

That's not the point.  A lot of other peopel could have one the race without Missouri.  Missouri simply tends to side with the winner.  As Missoui goes, so goes the rest of America.  Missouri also has a tendency to overstate the majority of the winning candidate, which I would say acctually improves it's status as a bellewether, because it will swing more than a lot of other states to hand its EV's to the winning candidate.

I too have noticed the potential of using the MIMIL states in presidential races.  In fact, an alternative primary proposal that I once drew up proposed that, rather than simply have Iowa go first, the MIMAL states should all go first on the same day, thus obtaining a better idea of what voters all over America really want.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #28 on: June 23, 2005, 07:45:44 PM »

Right. In any case, it's still a pretty remarkable phenomenon. Since 1840, the state with the mean center of population has gone with the winner in all except for 1916, which was kind of a strange election because Wilson narrowly won on the basis of his incumbency, which he only had in the first place because of Roosevelt's ultra-successful third-party challenge in 1912... probably the most successful "third party" challenge since 1860, at least.
1788-1808 Maryland.  In 1800 when the electoral votes were split (Maryland usually elected its electors by district), Jefferson had a bare majority of the popular vote.

1812-1852 Virginia.   Went for favorite son Crawford in 1824Voted for Van Buren in 1840, and Cass in 1848

1856 (Virginia or Ohio).  The mean center crossed the Ohio River into Ohio between 1850 and 1860.  Fremont carrried Ohio in 1856

1860-1876.  Ohio.  No misses.

1880 Kentucky (just south of Cincinnati, Ohio)).  Hancock carried Kentucky

1884-1940.  Indiana Hughes in 1916  It helps that Indiana was slightly more Democrat than other NW states such that Cleveland carried it in 1884 and 1892, but not 1888.

1944-1976.  Illinois  Ford in 1976

1980-2004.  Missouri.   No misses.

6 or 7 misses in 55 elections.  Has any single state done better?

The state containing the mean center of population appears to have been a  better bellwether than any fixed state.

The mean center state has missed 7 elections (if the center had crossed into Ohio by 1856) or 6 (if the center was still in western Virginia in 1856).

No state east of the Mississippi has missed 7 or fewer elections.  There are 11 western states (plus the District of Columbia) that have missed 7 or fewer elections, but they have participated in fewer elections:

California (first election 1852, 7 misses in 39 tries, 82% right, 3 for center).   Since California became a state, the mean center state has only missed 3 times, 1880 (KY for Hancock), 1916 (IN for Hughes), and 1976 (IL for Ford).

Nevada (1864, 7/36, 81%, 3 for center).

Montana (1892, 6/29, 83%, 2)

Wyoming (1892, 6/29, 83%, 2)

Idaho (1892, 7/29, 76%, 2)

Utah (1896, 6/28, 79%, 2)

Oklahoma (1908, 5/25, 80%, 2)

New Mexico (1912, 2/24, 92%, 2)

New Mexico is the only state to have a better percentage than the center state, and has matched its performance since statehood.

Arizona (1912, 4/24, 83%, 2)

Alaska (1960, 4/12, 67%, 1)

Hawaii (1960, 5/12, 58%, 1)

District of Columbia (1964, 7/11, 36%, 1)
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Beet
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« Reply #29 on: June 23, 2005, 08:44:57 PM »

Hmm, very interesting. Especially since it's mean and not median.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #30 on: July 29, 2005, 05:36:12 PM »

ive found that peoria county illinois votes nearly the same as the nation as a whole.

although kerry did win peoria, by less than 100 votes.
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tarheel-leftist85
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« Reply #31 on: July 29, 2005, 09:42:06 PM »

ive found that peoria county illinois votes nearly the same as the nation as a whole.

although kerry did win peoria, by less than 100 votes.
I think that place (as well as Illinois) is trending liberal...and not surprisingly losing electoral votes in the process.
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