Why have there been less polls this election cycle?
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  Why have there been less polls this election cycle?
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Author Topic: Why have there been less polls this election cycle?  (Read 663 times)
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
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« on: July 05, 2016, 02:25:08 PM »

We're five days into July and only have two real national polls and a junk Gravis poll this month.
Also it seems like we've gotten way less state polling than 2012 at this point. It feels like we don't know anything about the status of NV, and a lot of other states like IA and CO have been underpolled to this point.

Will we start getting a lot more polls post-conventions or is this going to be a lingering trend?
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Ljube
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« Reply #1 on: July 05, 2016, 02:28:18 PM »

We don't need polling to tell which state is Trump territory and which isn't. I am only interested in FL, PA and OH polls.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #2 on: July 05, 2016, 02:29:48 PM »

We're five days into July and only have two real national polls and a junk Gravis poll this month.
Also it seems like we've gotten way less state polling than 2012 at this point. It feels like we don't know anything about the status of NV, and a lot of other states like IA and CO have been underpolled to this point.

Will we start getting a lot more polls post-conventions or is this going to be a lingering trend?
Ummm. The 4th of July weekend? There were a ton of poll releases on the 1st, but since the holiday was on a Monday this year, there was scant polling over the weekend?

You'll probably see more releases by the end of this week.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #3 on: July 05, 2016, 02:31:30 PM »

Ummm. The 4th of July weekend? There were a ton of poll releases on the 1st, but since the holiday was on a Monday this year, there was scant polling over the weekend?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2016, 02:41:10 PM »

$$$$
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: July 05, 2016, 04:51:53 PM »

The polling industry is on the decline. There were a lot more polls in 2012 than there are now, but there were way more in 2008 than in 2012. Some reasons:

1) It's getting harder and harder to get representative samples, due to cell phones, more people than ever declining to answer polls, among other reasons.

2) Polling in general has had a lot of major flubs lately, so people don't see as much value in them.

3) People don't want to shell out the money for a high quality poll.

4) IVR and internet polls aren't seen as particularly reliable, so less people are willing to commission them.

5) With sites like RCP, Pollster, and 538, pollsters have less incentive to poll. Before their poll would be the headline, but now it tends to just get thrown into the aggregate and diluted. In addition to that, with sites like 538 now keeping track of how well pollsters perform, they have extra pressure to fudge their own numbers to what they think looks closer to reality. Funnily enough, this also has the effect of making the aggregators less reliable.
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #6 on: July 05, 2016, 08:05:33 PM »

**fewer polls** (grammar nazi)
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #7 on: July 05, 2016, 09:33:08 PM »

I found one.

Reuters/Ipsos national poll conducted July 1-5. Reuters says, incl. “responses gathered mostly over the holiday weekend.”
Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46%-33% in general election matchup (13 point difference).
Nice lead !

Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0ZL2S6
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #8 on: July 06, 2016, 09:51:54 AM »

Here is another one from The Economist / YouGov, conducted from July 2-4  ...
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/40khyk3nw4/econToplines.pdf
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #9 on: July 06, 2016, 09:56:15 AM »

Random comment: I think it would be interesting to have an election cycle completely without polls.
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