Morning Consult national poll: Clinton 41% Trump 40%

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll, conducted June 30 - July 4:

https://morningconsult.com/2016/07/05/clinton-trump-nearly-tied-new-survey/

2-way:
Clinton 41%
Trump 40%

3-way:
Clinton 38%
Trump 37%
Johnson 11%

[IceSpear]

Who conducts a poll during a holiday weekend? Junk pollster.

[Fusionmunster]

I thought this looked familiar.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=239289.0

I'm not sure how I feel about Morning Consult, but until I see how they do this election I don't trust any of their numbers.

[HillOfANight]

I thought this looked familiar.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=239289.0

I'm not sure how I feel about Morning Consult, but until I see how they do this election I don't trust any of their numbers.

https://morningconsult.com/presidential-election-2016-electoral-college-projection/
They were prescient in the close ME-02 race lol

[Seriously?]

Who conducts a poll during a holiday weekend? Junk pollster.

Morning Consult, apparently.

This result isn't exactly shocking given the general narrowing of the election over the past week.

[Ljube]

The polls taken this week should have Trump leading, after the FBI report claiming that Clinton was "extremely careless".

[IceSpear]

The polls taken this week should have Trump leading, after the FBI report claiming that Clinton was "extremely careless".

Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if Trump leads for a large chunk of July. He has the Lynch/Clinton meeting + the Comey press conference + his VP choice coming any day now + the RNC. The DNC doesn't come until the tail end of the month.

[Mr. Morden]

While I do think it's sketchy to poll on a holiday, my naive guess would be that it wouldn't make quite as much of an impact on response rates for an internet poll as it would for a phone poll.  For a phone poll, you actually have to be there, answering the phone, at the moment that the call comes in.  Not quite the same for an internet poll.

That's not to say that Morning Consult is a good pollster.  I don't think it is.  But I'm not sure that we should be especially more skeptical of this one than any of their other polls.