What is Trump's realistic ceiling?
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Author Topic: What is Trump's realistic ceiling?  (Read 1608 times)
IceSpear
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« on: July 04, 2016, 07:47:52 PM »
By realistic, assume no indictment, 9/11-esque terrorist attack, or any other black swan event.

Although I think Trump can win, I also think demographics are too steep for him to win in any type of landslide. I think this would be his ceiling.



306-232
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: July 04, 2016, 07:53:23 PM »
« Edited: July 04, 2016, 07:56:21 PM by ElectionsGuy »


Trump: 306
Clinton: 232

Basically I'm just giving all the states that I see as competitive (up to Lean D) to Trump. I'm driving TNvolunteer insane right now I'm sure.

I just realized my map is exactly the same as yours. I think Clinton's ceiling is Obama 2012 + NC + AZ + NE-02. That would be 359-179 Clinton.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #2 on: July 04, 2016, 08:28:04 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on July 04, 2016, 07:47:52 PM
By realistic, assume no indictment, 9/11-esque terrorist attack, or any other black swan event.

Although I think Trump can win, I also think demographics are too steep for him to win in any type of landslide. I think this would be his ceiling.



306-232

I come up with the exact same map.

Trump MIGHT be able to add NJ if he selects Christie as his VP, but that's a longshot.  NJ is pretty Democratic now, and Christie is pretty unpopular now.
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CivicParticipant
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« Reply #3 on: July 04, 2016, 08:41:41 PM »


316-222
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Badger
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« Reply #4 on: July 04, 2016, 08:47:53 PM »
Quote from: Fuzzy Bear on July 04, 2016, 08:28:04 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on July 04, 2016, 07:47:52 PM
By realistic, assume no indictment, 9/11-esque terrorist attack, or any other black swan event.

Although I think Trump can win, I also think demographics are too steep for him to win in any type of landslide. I think this would be his ceiling.



306-232

I come up with the exact same map.

Trump MIGHT be able to add NJ if he selects Christie as his VP, but that's a longshot.  NJ is pretty Democratic now, and Christie is pretty unpopular now.

No way in hell.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: July 04, 2016, 09:02:56 PM »
Quote from: Fuzzy Bear on July 04, 2016, 08:28:04 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on July 04, 2016, 07:47:52 PM
By realistic, assume no indictment, 9/11-esque terrorist attack, or any other black swan event.

Although I think Trump can win, I also think demographics are too steep for him to win in any type of landslide. I think this would be his ceiling.



306-232

I come up with the exact same map.

Trump MIGHT be able to add NJ if he selects Christie as his VP, but that's a longshot.  NJ is pretty Democratic now, and Christie is pretty unpopular now.

"Unpopular" is an understatement. Toxic is more like it. According to the most recent poll, he has a 26-62 approval rating. Tongue

http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160630/

I actually think Trump will do better than Romney in NJ, but if he picked Christie as VP he might actually do worse.
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Ljube
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« Reply #6 on: July 05, 2016, 01:17:46 AM »
Quote from: IceSpear on July 04, 2016, 07:47:52 PM
By realistic, assume no indictment, 9/11-esque terrorist attack, or any other black swan event.

Although I think Trump can win, I also think demographics are too steep for him to win in any type of landslide. I think this would be his ceiling.



306-232

Add Nevada and you got your realistic ceiling. Add Michigan and Oregon for a slightly less realistic one. The rest is beyond Trump's reach.
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evergreenarbor
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« Reply #7 on: July 05, 2016, 01:18:38 AM »


Trump: 316
Clinton: 222
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Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #8 on: July 05, 2016, 01:23:43 AM »
Anything can happen in politics. Every candidate on the ballot has a floor of 0 electoral votes and a ceiling of 538 electoral votes.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #9 on: July 05, 2016, 01:57:14 AM »

This. Trump isn't winning NV or WI unless Hillary does something unthinkably bad.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #10 on: July 05, 2016, 02:01:02 AM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on July 05, 2016, 01:59:40 AM
Quote from: xingkerui on July 05, 2016, 01:57:14 AM
This. Trump isn't winning NV or WI unless Hillary does something unthinkably bad.

Okay, then why is he winning New Hampshire?!

Well, no answer could possibly satisfy you, so why bother? Wink
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: July 05, 2016, 02:02:12 AM »
Quote from: xingkerui on July 05, 2016, 02:01:02 AM
Quote from: TN volunteer on July 05, 2016, 01:59:40 AM
Quote from: xingkerui on July 05, 2016, 01:57:14 AM
This. Trump isn't winning NV or WI unless Hillary does something unthinkably bad.

Okay, then why is he winning New Hampshire?!

Well, no answer could possibly satisfy you, so why bother? Wink

Yes, because there is zero chance the Republicans win NH but lose WI. Smiley
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xingkerui
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« Reply #12 on: July 05, 2016, 02:04:16 AM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on July 05, 2016, 02:02:12 AM
Quote from: xingkerui on July 05, 2016, 02:01:02 AM
Quote from: TN volunteer on July 05, 2016, 01:59:40 AM
Quote from: xingkerui on July 05, 2016, 01:57:14 AM
This. Trump isn't winning NV or WI unless Hillary does something unthinkably bad.

Okay, then why is he winning New Hampshire?!

Well, no answer could possibly satisfy you, so why bother? Wink

Yes, because there is zero chance the Republicans win NH but lose WI. Smiley

Funny to see you say that, and then look at your sig. Tongue
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IceSpear
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« Reply #13 on: July 05, 2016, 02:39:19 AM »
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on July 05, 2016, 01:23:43 AM
Anything can happen in politics. Every candidate on the ballot has a floor of 0 electoral votes and a ceiling of 538 electoral votes.

That's why I said "realistic"
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Beef
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« Reply #14 on: July 05, 2016, 08:38:04 AM »
2012 + OH, FL, CO, IA = 268 EV



Which means his ceiling is still losing.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #15 on: July 05, 2016, 08:48:36 AM »
Quote from: Fuzzy Bear on July 04, 2016, 08:28:04 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on July 04, 2016, 07:47:52 PM
By realistic, assume no indictment, 9/11-esque terrorist attack, or any other black swan event.

Although I think Trump can win, I also think demographics are too steep for him to win in any type of landslide. I think this would be his ceiling.



306-232

I come up with the exact same map.

Trump MIGHT be able to add NJ if he selects Christie as his VP, but that's a longshot.  NJ is pretty Democratic now, and Christie is pretty unpopular now.

Trump might actually do worse in NJ if he adds Christie to his ticket f.y.i.
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Redban
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« Reply #16 on: July 05, 2016, 08:52:50 AM »
Hurricane Sandy likely influenced the vote totals in New Jersey in 2012, and 2008 was simply a tough year for the GOP. Typically, the GOP comes within 10-15% in New Jersey. Bush came remarkably close in 2004.
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Ljube
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« Reply #17 on: July 05, 2016, 01:21:03 PM »
Quote from: Beef on July 05, 2016, 08:38:04 AM
2012 + OH, FL, CO, IA = 268 EV



Which means his ceiling is still losing.



Which means that you are a hack.
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Beef
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« Reply #18 on: July 05, 2016, 01:39:43 PM »
Quote from: Ljube on July 05, 2016, 01:21:03 PM
Quote from: Beef on July 05, 2016, 08:38:04 AM
2012 + OH, FL, CO, IA = 268 EV



Which means his ceiling is still losing.



Which means that you are a hack.


It's possible for him to do better than this, but it's not very realistic.  It involves Trump winning one of the following:

Virginia
Pennsylvania
Nevada
Wisconsin
New Hampshire

None of these is likely at this point.  Coming within 2% in any of these is unlikely.  His closest bet is Pennsylvania, and that is probably a pipe dream.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #19 on: July 05, 2016, 01:43:31 PM »
Romney 2012, and that's being generous to Trump.
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Horus
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« Reply #20 on: July 05, 2016, 02:01:24 PM »
55% and a 45 state landslide.
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Beef
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« Reply #21 on: July 05, 2016, 02:17:01 PM »

Trump 55% would be 40 states, not 45.
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Ljube
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« Reply #22 on: July 05, 2016, 02:21:21 PM »
It is not realistic that Trump could win 55%.

He is at 40% now with some 30% of Pubs outstanding. Let's say he gets them all. That's 48-49% at most.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #23 on: July 05, 2016, 02:22:44 PM »
Quote from: Beef on July 05, 2016, 08:38:04 AM
2012 + OH, FL, CO, IA = 268 EV



Which means his ceiling is still losing.



I might give him NH or the ME CD depending on how polarized whites end up being, but this is basically it.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #24 on: July 05, 2016, 06:28:37 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on July 05, 2016, 01:51:42 AM
LOL@people saying Trump can win New Hampshire but not Wisconsin. Roll Eyes

NH is very swingy, elastic, and independent. You never know what they'll do. Wink

Anyway, we all know the good people of Wisconsin DESPISE Trump.
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