Who wins Florida?

[sg0508]

I think we can agree that if Trump loses Florida, it's over and done.  The same thing was true of Romney in '12.  Even though FL was a moot point (called after Obama had clearly broken 270), every map for Romney included FL. 

Down here in south FL, there is definitely a hold your nose support for Hillary, but I do know people who may fill in the bubble for Trump, especially amongst white men who the past few cycles, have voted Democratic.

The Puerto Rican support swung the state Obama's way in '12.  GOP weakness amongst younger Cubans also hurt, but Trump is getting a break with Rubio being back on the ballot.  Even a point or two increase among Cubans could be big.

Thoughts?

[Devout Centrist]

Polls suggest a Clinton win and after alienating a lot of Latinos, the Cuban population may even trend slightly democratic.

Tilt/Lean D at the moment.

[Move Forward]

Lean Clinton

[Flake]

Clinton's going to win it by a big margin (compared to the 1-2 point win for either party most years). I'd say she wins it by 4-7 points.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

It's going to be a hard fought race. The way things stand right now, I'm guessing Hillary pulls it out by about 2%.

[Maxwell]

Hillary by a solid margin, maybe as much as 6 points.

[CivicParticipant]

Trump <1%

[Ljube]

I think Trump.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Lean Clinton

Hillary Clinton 52%
Donald Trump 44%
Other 4%

[Sir Mohamed]

Likely Clinton.

I think she'll beat the Trumpster by around two or three points (51.1% vs. 48.5% or so).

If the Trumpster fails to win the sunshine state, he’ll be finished.

[Gass3268]

Likely Clinton at this point, will probably move to Lean Clinton by election day however.

[Redban]

Florida has not voted more Democrat than the nation since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Are you guys predicting the end of that streak, or are you predicting that Trump will lose the national average by a wide margin? Romney lost Florida by less than 1%.

As for this topic, it's too early to answer definitively, as there are VP selections, conventions, and debates to come. However, I will comfortably predict that either Trump or Clinton will win the state by just 1-3%, which means Florida will be close no matter who the winner is.

[Sir Mohamed]

Florida has not voted more Democrat than the nation since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Are you guys predicting the end of that streak, or are you predicting that Trump will lose the national average by a wide margin? Romney lost Florida by less than 1%.

As for this topic, it's too early to answer definitively, as there are VP selections, conventions, and debates to come. However, I will comfortably predict that either Trump or Clinton will win the state by just 1-3%, which means Florida will be close no matter who the winner is.

It wouldn’t vote more Democratic if the Trumpster weren’t the nominee. He has angered too many latinos, even the more conservative Cuban Americans. Rubio or Kasich would have a good chance to win FL (maybe with a Kasich/Rubio ticket), but the narcissist fake billionaire hasn't a great shot for FL.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

I'm going to say Clinton by about 1% more than the nation.  Maybe 2%. MohamedChalid might be right in his angering of Latinos, but there are other cultural advantages he has there.  I think in the very unlikely scenario of Trump winning, it's the state we're waiting on.  It might not be the tipping point - that might be Pennsylvania, which he will also need - but Florida has this habit of being a nail-biter.

Realistically, however, Clinton is going to win by 5-6% nationally, which means she'll carry Florida by 7% or so, 52-45.

[pbrower2a]

Quite possibly more D than Iowa or Pennsylvania this time.

[Ljube]

Quite possibly more D than Iowa or Pennsylvania this time.

Oh, but a lot of former swing states are more D than Pennsylvania this time.

Soon we will be declaring Pennsylvania lean Trump.

[SingingAnalyst]

Clinton, making an uphill climb for Trump. If Trump loses FL he could win OH, IA, WI, NH, ME-2 and PA and still lose.

[HisGrace]

Cubans definitely shouldn't be lumped in with other Hispanics politically, but even they are upset about Trump's various comments. Clinton will probably narrowly win the Cuban vote. I really don't see how Trump has a chance.

[MIKESOWELL]

I think Hillary will win Florida by at least 200,000 votes this year.

[CivicParticipant]

Florida has not voted more Democrat than the nation since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Are you guys predicting the end of that streak, or are you predicting that Trump will lose the national average by a wide margin? Romney lost Florida by less than 1%.

As for this topic, it's too early to answer definitively, as there are VP selections, conventions, and debates to come. However, I will comfortably predict that either Trump or Clinton will win the state by just 1-3%, which means Florida will be close no matter who the winner is.