The calm before the storm-2016 Mini election timeline
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  The calm before the storm-2016 Mini election timeline
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« on: June 25, 2016, 07:39:14 PM »
« edited: June 25, 2016, 09:37:51 PM by Registrar General 1184AZ »

Please note that I will be getting back to the GOP at a crossroads is  is just on hold for a little while. This timeline will just cover the election campaign and election night 2016. Hope you enjoy!

July 14th-Trump Makes his Running Mate Selection
After months of speculation Donald Trump has announced his running mate. To the Surprise of many Trump chooses New Jersey Governor Chris Christie as his running mate. Immediately after the announcement it is speculated that some delegates are considering an attempt at blocking Chris Christies nomination at the convention.
 



RNC 2016


Despite concerns from some in the Republican Party, the convention was conducted in an orderly fashion with no major problems. Ben Carson got the key note, giving a rousing speech to delegates and Republican Supporters. Despite calls to unbind the delegates by some a motion to unbind failed 76%-24%. Chris Christie himself was confirmed by a voice vote of approximately 65%-35%. In his speech Trump spoke about the need for the GOP to come together in order to be successful in November. Trump ended by stating how his plan to would   lead America down a path of prosperity for the next four years.  


The 2016  DNC



Despite worries of potential protests, the DNC ended up being a major success Elizabeth Warren got the key note address giving a touching speech to the many delegates in attendance. Delegates approved a motion abolishing caucuses with the exception of Iowa by a vote of 67-33, as well as a vote to abolish super delegates 57-43.





Hillary Clinton unveiled her VP choice at the convention, selecting former Massachusetts Governor   Deval Patrick as her running mate. Hillary Clinton spoke of the need to remain united as country, and how her plan was inclusive towards all Americans.          

I have switched from yellow to green for readability.
Polling Averages after both Conventions

National
Hillary Clinton/Deval Patrick 41%
Donald Trump/Christ Christie 33%
Gary Johnson/William Weld 13%
Other/Undecided 13%

State polling average map
90% Shading Strong
70% Shading Likely
30% Shading Lean
Grey Tossup


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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2016, 07:57:03 PM »

Before I get to the Debates I will put up some results for the major Senate Primaries.Please feel free to ask about results for the other Primary Results.  
Major Primary Results

Colorado-GOP
Ryan Frazier 40%
Darryl Glenn 37%
Jon Keyser 25%
Other 8%

Arizona-GOP
John McCain 53%
Kelli Ward 43%
Other 4%

Florida-GOP
Marco Rubio 60%
Carlos Beruff 35%
Other 5%

Florida-Democratic
Alan Grayson 51%
Patrick Murphy 44%
Other 4%

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LLR
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« Reply #2 on: June 25, 2016, 08:05:39 PM »

CLINTON/PATRICK 2016

Beautiful VP choice!
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2016, 08:39:57 PM »

Gary Johnson narrowly missed making the first debate falling .5% short.
Debate 1

The first Debate was considered by many to be a draw, some audience members were turned off by the negative nature of the debate. Trump attacked Clinton on her past scandals as well as her past flip flopping on policy issues. Clinton would attack Trump on Trump University, his past bankruptcies as well as some of his past controversial statements.

Who won Debate #1
Tie 45%
Clinton 30%
Trump 25%

Gary Johnson and William Weld would qualify for the remaining  debates
Debate #2-VP Debate
Chris Christie would go on to win the second debate, exceeding media expectations, giving a bit of a boost to the Trump/Christie ticket. Deval Patrick  himself however also had a good debate, meanwhile William Weld was able to use his limited speaking time somewhat effectively, but was noted as having somewhat of a disappointing debate.

Who won Debate #2
Christie 50%
Patrick  25%
Tie 17%
Weld 8%

Debate #3
In the first debate with Gary Johnson in it, it would end up being Hillary  Clinton that would be the big winner. Clinton came off as knowledgeable and charismatic, showing herself to be a leader ready to lead American for the next four years, would be how one columnist summed up the debate. Johnson generally met expectations, however did not have a stand out moment. Meanwhile Trump was noted to have had a disappointing evening.
 Who won Debate #3
Clinton 70%
Trump 15%
Johnson 10%
Tie 5%

Debate #4
The final debate, this was a chance for Clinton to follow up last debate performance with a strong closing performance. However it was Johnson that would give many voters pause to take a second thought on their voting intention. Johnson would use his time very effectively to position himself as   a viable third option. In the aftermath of the debate a few #NeverTrump politicians joined Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse in endorsing Gary Johnson.
Who won Debate #4
Johnson  60%
Clinton 20%
Trump 15%
Tie 5%

I will post final polls and maps next post, then I will go into the results.
 
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2016, 09:45:15 PM »

For Senate and Governor Green is Tossup  
Final polling averages

Hillary Clinton/Deval Patrick 38% (-3%)
Donald Trump/Christ Christie 33% (N/C)
Gary Johnson/William Weld 25% (+12%)
Other/Undecided 4%

President



Senate


Governor

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LLR
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« Reply #5 on: June 26, 2016, 06:01:30 AM »

If Johnson/Weld is at 25%, they're leading in more than just Utah.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #6 on: June 26, 2016, 11:19:06 AM »

If Johnson/Weld is at 25%, they're leading in more than just Utah.
As in the other maps  those are just state ratings (90% shading is safe, 70% sharing is likely, 30% shading is lean and grey is toss up), also in 1992 Perot got almost 19% and did not come close to winning a seat, so it depends how spread out your vote is, I promise you this election night will be far more interesting then 1992.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #7 on: June 26, 2016, 06:42:41 PM »

GOP primary result for Missouri's governor race? Also, who are the gubernatorial nominees in New Hampshire?
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #8 on: June 27, 2016, 07:56:14 PM »

GOP primary result for Missouri's governor race? Also, who are the gubernatorial nominees in New Hampshire?

Missouri: Peter Kinder wins the primary, and faces  Chris Koster in the General.

New Hampshire: Colin Van Ostern wins the Democratic Nomination
Chris Sununu wins the Republican Nomination.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #9 on: July 02, 2016, 05:51:49 PM »

Instead of doing a traditional election results show, I will go through state by state results, Starting with Maine. For this timeline I will assume the Libertarian Party and Green Party have ballot access in all 50 States plus DC.


Maine

Presidency-Maine was expected to be one of the most third party friendly states, while Johnson as expected had an excellent showing, Green party nominee Jill Stein had an strong fourth place finish. Hillary Clinton would win Maine narrowly on the strength of the 1st Congressional. The 2end Congressional district ended up being a close two way race with Donald Trump narrowly wining the Districts 1 EV.

State wide
Hillary Clinton 41%   
Donald Trump 38%
Gary Johnson 13%
Jill Stein 8%

Main 1 CD
Hillary Clinton 44%   
Donald Trump 36%
Gary Johnson 11%
Jill Stein 9%

Main 2CD
Donald Trump 42%
Hillary Clinton 37%   
Gary Johnson 15%
Jill Stein 6%

House
Both house races would end up breaking the same way as on the Presidential Level.  With Democrats retaining the 1st CD and Republicans retaining the 2 CD.

Maine 1 CD
 Chellie Pingree 58%
Mark Holbrook 42%

Maine 2 CD
Bruce Poliquin 52%
Emily Cain 46%
Other 1%
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #10 on: July 02, 2016, 06:21:50 PM »

New Hampshire

Presidency
The race in NH like Maine was unexpectedly close with a strong third party showing. However unlike in Maine's 2 Congressional District, Hillary Clinton would pull off a narrow victory.

State wide
Hillary Clinton 43%
Donald Trump 40%
Gary Johnson 13%
Jill Stein 4%

Senate
Despite having an comfortable victory in 2010, Kelly Ayotte faced what would be close campaign against NH Governor Maggie Hassan. With some calling it one of the closest Senate race in NH history. This race would live up to the hype with Ayotte pulling off a victory by the  narrowest of margins.

Senate
Kelly Ayotte 50.3%     
Maggie Hassan 49.7%

House
In the House Race both incumbents would go on to win, with Frank Guinta winning by only a handful of votes.

NH CD1
Frank Guinta 50% (+88 votes)
Carol Shea-Porter 50%

NH CD 2
Ann McLane Kuster 56%
Gary Lambert 44%

Governor Race
In another close race Colin Van Ostern would beat Chris Sununu to hold the Governors race for the Democratic Party.

Governor
Colin Van Ostern 50.1%
Chris Sununu 49.9%
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #11 on: July 02, 2016, 06:36:31 PM »

Vermont

Presidency
As expected Hillary Clinton would win what was once a Republican stronghold in an landslide. Vermont would also be one of two  where Jill Stein would finish ahead of Gary Johnson.

State wide
Hillary Clinton 60%
Donald Trump 30%
Jill Stein 6%
Gary Johnson 4%

Senate
Like the Presidential race, Patrick Leahy would win in an landslide.

Senate
Patrick Leahy 59%
Scott Milne 40%
Other 1%

House
With no Republican Candidate Peter Welch only faced a third party candidate.
Peter Welch 88%
Other 12%

Governor
In a tight race popular LT Governor Phil Scott beat Sue Minter gaining the Governors mansion for the GOP.
Phil Scott 50%
Sue Minter 47%
Other 3%
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msnmllr
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« Reply #12 on: July 04, 2016, 05:11:47 PM »

Looking great so far. Really hoping Johnson can win some states!
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