Election Night Scenarios- a GOP Bias?
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: #CriminalizeSobriety, Dereich)
  Election Night Scenarios- a GOP Bias?
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Author Topic: Election Night Scenarios- a GOP Bias?  (Read 402 times)
BL53931
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« on: July 04, 2016, 01:03:13 PM »

Right now all the polls I am seeing are indicating what may be a wave election with the GOP being decimated in November. It is way early to predict much for sure but most of the threads simulating election results seem to be more or less tilted toward the GOP.

I'm a newbie here and find this board entertaining and enjoyable. I know spinning a narrative about a close election is vastly more interesting than one about a blowout would be. Maybe that's it. Just my opinion..

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Mike Thick
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« Reply #1 on: July 04, 2016, 01:18:31 PM »

Well:
-Most polls are indicating mid-single-digit Clinton leads, which is a comfortable win but not exactly a decimating wave
-It's unlikely IMO but entirely possible for Trump to catch up
-Close elections are generally more exciting to watch/read about
-The general rule in What-Ifs is that authors can do what they want with their timelines -- we've had very Republican-friendly ones like ExtremeRepublicans, and very Democrat-friendly ones like one called "The Weasel in the White House" that I read a while back.
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BL53931
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« Reply #2 on: July 04, 2016, 01:27:10 PM »

OK, that was pretty much my thinking upon reflection.

I did note that a couple I read seemed to indicate many of the marginal Senate seats going GOP. My personal feeling is that they will lose the Senate and the Dems will pick up anywhere from 6-8 seats.
I think both McCain and Grassley are in big trouble with 3-4 other seats being easy pick offs (IL, WI).

It's all in fun- gotta remember..
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #3 on: July 04, 2016, 02:07:02 PM »

OK, that was pretty much my thinking upon reflection.

I did note that a couple I read seemed to indicate many of the marginal Senate seats going GOP. My personal feeling is that they will lose the Senate and the Dems will pick up anywhere from 6-8 seats.
I think both McCain and Grassley are in big trouble with 3-4 other seats being easy pick offs (IL, WI).

It's all in fun- gotta remember..
One other timeline of note is KingSweden's "Era of the New Majority," which has 2016 as a massive Democratc wave. Even if Trump does lose in a landslide, the unique circumstances of this election make it likely that Democratic success does not necessarily translate downballot, especially in House races. But timelines are always fun to read.,
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #4 on: July 04, 2016, 03:06:09 PM »

OK, that was pretty much my thinking upon reflection.

I did note that a couple I read seemed to indicate many of the marginal Senate seats going GOP. My personal feeling is that they will lose the Senate and the Dems will pick up anywhere from 6-8 seats.
I think both McCain and Grassley are in big trouble with 3-4 other seats being easy pick offs (IL, WI).

It's all in fun- gotta remember..
Yeah, but Grassley won't lose. He has visited every single county in Iowa at least thirty times if I'm remembering right. In 1980, Grassley won 55% of the vote. Every time since then, he's won between 64% and 70% of the vote. In his last three elections, he's only lost one county total.
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