It All Comes Down to ________

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It's Wednesday morning, November 9.  You turn on the TV, and you hear the anchor saying "It all comes down to...".  Finish the sentence!

[Joe Kakistocracy]

"...Wyoming!  Could it be #50 for the clean sweep?!"

[Mallow]

Pennsylvania (Florida in a normal election).

[Devout Centrist]

Whether the Libertarians get above 5%.

They called the race for Clinton 10 hours ago.

[TDAS04]

It looks like Pennsylvania this time.

[Ljube]

Probably Florida.

[CivicParticipant]

PA

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

The Supreme Court. I have to wonder how a 2000-like scenario would play out with our current incomplete Supreme Court...

[Flake]

Ohio or Pennsylvania, I'm thinking the former.

[President Johnson]

Probably Florida.

[SillyAmerican]

It looks like Pennsylvania this time.

Yes, Pennsylvania.

[Phony Moderate]

Nevada, where a 30,000 vote margin will be considered recount territory for some reason.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

FL

259 - 206

Trump can win OH and PA and still lose if he doesn't have FL.  IA, with only 6 EVs, is unlikely to make a difference one way or another.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

If Trump has any chance of winning, it involves picking up Florida and either Virginia or Pennsylvania.  In this scenario he wins Ohio handily (it's called by 10 PM EST).

I'm guessing Clinton wins Virginia, Pennsylvania is called late in the night for Trump, and Florida is once again the one that takes forever to call.

November 9 A.M. Map:

Clinton 243 (+ Oregon mail-ins)
Trump 259

It is possible FL is called for Trump and we have to wait on PA, however.

[Consciously Unconscious]

Voted PA, but FL is definitely a possibility.

[IceSpear]

PA or FL - really not sure which one...

[ProudModerate2]

Voted PA.
I think trump/GOP is going to spend extremely heavy (time, money & resources) in Pennsylvania for the general election.
If they cant win it, they're dead in the water.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Probably Pennsylvania, but I doubt the election will still be undecided Wednesday morning.

[ElectionsGuy]

PA

[Sir Mohamed]

Like in 2012: As soon as OH is called for Clinton, the race is over. FL will be called later on. PA won’t be as close as expected and called before OH.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

Like in 2012: As soon as OH is called for Clinton, the race is over. FL will be called later on. PA won’t be as close as expected and called before OH.

If OH is even close, PA, VA, and NH will already have been called for Clinton, and there will be only one path left for Trump: The Perfect Six.  FL+NC+OH+IA+CO+NV.  So any of those states being called for Clinton ends the race.  Trump has to have this map to get to exactly 270:

The unlikeliness of this occurring is such that, I would say that once PA and VA go for Clinton, it's over.  The likelihood of Trump picking up all six of those states is <1%.

[Dwarven Dragon]

The winner of Pennsylvania will win the election.

[Redban]

Pennsylvania is the most charming state to follow in this election because of the history ("fool's gold"), demographics, and position in the Northeast / Midwest.

However, the election doesn't come down to PA because Hillary has many pathways to victory without it. If she takes Florida, for example, then PA becomes irrelevant.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

The winner of Pennsylvania will win the election.

90% likely.  But not entirely certain.  I see four blocs of states:

1. PA>OH
2. NC>VA
3. FL
4. CO>IA>NV

The states within each bloc are correlated with one another, but the blocs are roughly independent.  Thus, you could lose PA/OH but win everything else.  PA is more critical to Clinton because PA is the gateway to OH, but she still has a bunch of other paths.  This is still realistic:

Clinton 273

Trump could lose PA but still win OH.  And still have other avenues.

Trump 275

[yankeesfan]

Crucial Waukesha county