538 Model Megathread

[Crumpets]

McMullin added to the Utah model!

[dspNY]

McMullin added to the Utah model!

McMullin's color in Utah is purple

[Dr. Arch]

McMullin added to the Utah model!

McMullin's color in Utah is McPurple

FTFY

[Gass3268]

Depending on what Monmouth shows, this could get close fast here.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Nice to see that HP out of Rasmussen has moved the needle not a whit.  A C+ rated pollster with a +2 R house effect doesn't mean much to the model.

I hope Rasmussen tracks back to Clinton, but in the meantime the Trumpistas have a reason to claim he's in the lead.

[Sorenroy]

Decided to make a map of all the states that have never dipped below an 80% chance of the leading candidate winning for more than a week in the polls-plus model:

Clinton — 176
Trump — 146
tossup* — 216

*Edit: I do not think the grey are tossup (that's just what it says in the calculator), I think they are the not-titanium-[party here] states.

Edit #2: I used the polls-plus model for this map.

[Slander and/or Libel]

Decided to make a map of all the states that have never dipped below an 80% chance of the leading candidate winning for more than a week:

Clinton — 176
Trump — 146
tossup — 216

This is the most farcical definition of "tossup" I've seen in a long, long time.

[Sorenroy]

Decided to make a map of all the states that have never dipped below an 80% chance of the leading candidate winning for more than a week:

Clinton — 176
Trump — 146
tossup — 216

This is the most farcical definition of "tossup" I've seen in a long, long time.

Never said they were*. I actually tend to go with safe over 80%, lean over 66.6% and tossups being less than 66.6%.

*Edit: fixed.

[Slander and/or Libel]

Your post literally says the word tossup.

[Sorenroy]

Your post literally says the word tossup.

Fixed. I just have it that way because that's what it said in the calculator.

[dspNY]

Decided to make a map of all the states that have never dipped below an 80% chance of the leading candidate winning for more than a week:

Clinton — 176
Trump — 146
tossup* — 216

*Edit: I do not think the grey are tossup, I think they are the not-titanium-[party here] states.

This would probably be an improvement on your map

50% red: Clinton 60% or greater chance to win at all times
30% red: Clinton always in the lead, but under 60% chance to win at one point
Gray: Candidates have exchanged the lead
30% blue: Trump always in the lead, but under 60% chance to win at one point
50% blue: Trump 60% or greater chance at all times

[GeorgiaModerate]

Decided to make a map of all the states that have never dipped below an 80% chance of the leading candidate winning for more than a week in the polls-plus model:

Clinton — 176
Trump — 146
tossup* — 216

*Edit: I do not think the grey are tossup (that's just what it says in the calculator), I think they are the not-titanium-[party here] states.

Edit #2: I used the polls-plus model for this map.

What's interesting about this map is that Trump has zero chance of winning any of the red states, but some of the blue states are close enough that Clinton has a non-trivial chance in them: SC, TX, UT, IN, MO.

[AGA]

The polls-only forecast gives McMullin a 3.3% chance of winning Utah.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The polls-only forecast gives McMullin a 3.3% chance of winning Utah.

It's reasonable based on polls, but I think that underestimates him. 3-way races are a lot more volatile.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The polls-only forecast gives McMullin a 3.3% chance of winning Utah.

It's reasonable based on polls, but I think that underestimates him. 3-way races are a lot more volatile.

This, plus I don't think it accounts for his recent momentum in Utah.

[hopper]

Interesting that Arizona's gone back in Clinton's direction after leaving her after the convention bounce but Georgia hasn't

I think Hillary will win AZ by a thin margin but lose GA because the White Vote is more D in AZ than it is in GA.

[ProudModerate2]

538 just adjusted all their models from a very large inclusion of polls from Ipsos, about 1 hour ago (Sat Oct 15th @ 5:31 PM EDT).
I was hoping the Arizona poll from Ipsos would be more Clinton friendly.

[dspNY]

Clinton's slipped to 86% in the Nowcast, 85% in the polls-only and 81-82% in the polls-plus.

The Senate forecast has shifted to the Democrats (now over 60% in all three models) because Cortez-Masto has taken the lead in Nevada

[Dr. Arch]

Clinton's slipped to 86% in the Nowcast, 85% in the polls-only and 81-82% in the polls-plus.

The Senate forecast has shifted to the Democrats (now over 60% in all three models) because Cortez-Masto has taken the lead in Nevada

With the latest polls, she got about a 2% bump again.

[Mallow]

Decided to make a map of all the states that have never dipped below an 80% chance of the leading candidate winning for more than a week:


Clinton — 176
Trump — 146
tossup* — 216

*Edit: I do not think the grey are tossup, I think they are the not-titanium-[party here] states.

This would probably be an improvement on your map


50% red: Clinton 60% or greater chance to win at all times
30% red: Clinton always in the lead, but under 60% chance to win at one point
Gray: Candidates have exchanged the lead
30% blue: Trump always in the lead, but under 60% chance to win at one point
50% blue: Trump 60% or greater chance at all times

My own take, using the polls-plus version:

Here, tossups are states where the lead has changed. Otherwise, states are colored depending on the lowest percentage that the leader had to win the state (>50%, >60%, >70%, >80%, or >90%, from the lighter colors to the darker colors, respectively).

That's...
Clinton: 268 (176 safe, 63 likely, 29 lean)
Trump: 190 (137 safe, 42 likely, 11 lean)
Tossup: 80

[nclib]

Why is South Dakota less safe than the other Plains states?

[Gass3268]

Why is South Dakota less safe than the other Plains states?

Google Consumer Surveys has had the race in the low single digits for Trump over the course of the last month.

[LLR]

Why is South Dakota less safe than the other Plains states?

Not sure about the model, but it and North Dakota have always voted less Republican than KS and NE in recent cycles, and recently the ND oil boom made it more conservative

[Middle-aged Europe]

Pulls-plus forecast is at a new record high with a 84.3% chance for Hillary to win the election, beating the previous record of 83.3% from last Wednesday.

Polls-only at 87.3% for Hillary, which is the highest number since August 17.

[Blackacre]

In addition, Clinton's chances in Arizona in Polls-Plus are now the best they've ever been, at 42.6%. The previous high was 42.3% on June 22nd