Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[ObserverIE]

So I take it final numbers are finally out now? What are they?

FG 50, FF 44 (-1 as speaker), SF 23, Lab 7, Alphabet Left 6 (SP 3, SWP 3), SD 3, GP 2, Oth 23.

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From five years ago with appropriate modifications:

Which type of politicAL distirbution the new independents are.

On the left:

Five from the United Left Alliance:
Joe Higgins (Dublin West), Clare Daly (Dublin NorthFingal) - both Socialist Party.  Daly left the SP over her political and personal associations with Mick Wallace (see below). Has developed a reputation, along with Wallace, as a general ferreter-out of various types of wrongdoing and dodgy dealings (property transactions, police corruption, the use of airport facilities for prisoner renditions). Probably the brains of the pair.

Richard Boyd-Barrett (Dún Laoghaire), Joan Collins (Dublin South Central) - both People Before Profit (Boyd-Barrett is a member of the Socialist Workers' Party, whose front organisation People Before Profit is, while Collins is a former member of the Socialist Party). Collins left PBP, was involved in an abortive attempt with Daly to form another grouping called United Left, and is loosely associated with Daly, Wallace and Tommy Broughan (see below) in a very loose grouping called Independents4Change. Heavily involved in protests over water charges and had been acquitted on a public order charge in relation to same during the course of the campaign.

Séamus Healy (Tipperary]s] South[/s]) - Workers and Unemployed Action Group (local group in Clonmel town). Left the ULA early and has remained unattached from the other groupings. Republican/Trotskyist leanings.

Other left:
Maureen O'Sullivan (Dublin Central) and Finian McGrath (Dublin North CentralBay North) - both associated with the late Tony Gregory, would be generally left of Labour but pragmatic where local issues are concerned. McGrath is part of Shane Ross's "Independent Alliance".

Catherine Murphy (Kildare North) - former member of the Workers' Party,Democratic Left and Labour who left the latter party in 2004. Now with the Social Democrats.

John Halligan (Waterford) - former member of the Workers' Party who left due to disagreements on local service charges, was unsucessfully wooed by Labour as a candidate earlier this year. Now part of the "Independent Alliance".

Tommy Broughan (Dublin Bay North) - Long-term former Labour TD who was opposed to going into coalition from the start and left the party early over a U-turn over the renewal of the Bank Guarantee. Part of Independents4Change.

Thomas Pringle (Donegal South West) - originally elected as an independent to the local county council and then self-described as a "republican socialist", then joined and subsequently left Sinn Féin. Narrowly re-elected this time in a larger constituency.

Catherine Connolly (Galway West) - former Labour councillor who left the party in the 2000s to stand as an independent due to being outmanouevred in the local succession battle to Michael D. Higgins.

Katherine Zappone (Dublin South West) - American-born, prominent in the same-sex marriage debate (she had married her Irish spouse in Canada and had sought recognition of the union in the Irish courts, only to be rebuffed). Appointed a senator by Éamonn Gilmore and was perceived as being close to Labour, but has been active in education initiatives in Tallaght, so was not just a culture-war candidate, and took what would formerly have been the last Labour seat in the constituency.

Mick Wallace (Wexford) - building contractor and property developer who runs the local soccer team and who was noted during the last decade for using properties to host banners opposing Irish facilitation of the US invasion of Iraq and the war in Kosovo among other causes. Leftish but maverick. Closely associated with Daly politically and personally. Doesn't do constituency work, which saw his vote share go down noticeably this time. Part of Independents4Change.

"Gene-pool" FF:
Mattie McGrath (Tipperary South) - spent four years as a semi-permanent stone in the shoe of successive Fianna Fáil leaders before finally jumping ship in 2011. Canny operator. Socially conservative but concentrates on rural issues.

Healy-Rae (X 2) (Kerry South) - no more need be said.

Kevin "Boxer" Moran (Longford-Westmeath) - former FF councillor in Athlone who had the temerity to challenge Mary "Mammy" O'Rourke and got run out of the local organisation as a reward. Ran as an independent in 2011, taking most of the local FF vote with him, but failed to be elected then and at the 2014 by-election. Was prominent when the town suffered badly from flooding this winter (the government parties were viewed as taking a hands-off approach for too long) and swept the boards locally this time. Part of the "Independent Alliance".

"Gene-pool" PD:
Noel Grealish (Galway West) - was elected as a PD in 2002 in succession to the long-term TD and Minister Bobby Molloy and has held on ever since. Constituency grafter rather than orator.

"Gene-pool" FG:
Michael Lowry (Tipperary North) - former FG cabinet minister who was forced to stand down and subsequently resigned as a party member due to questionable business links, has acted as a "sugar daddy" for his constituency. Was condemned by the Moriarty judicial tribunal at the start of the last Dáil and was publicly censured, but felt no need to consider his position as a result. FG's tar-baby - he will support them but they don't want to be publicly associated with him.

Denis Naughten (Roscommon-Galway) - former FG TD who left the party when FG reneged on a promise to keep the local A&E unit open. Was associated with Lucinda Creighton in the "Reform Alliance" (the precursor to Renua) but didn't join the party. May return to FG but not while Kenny is in charge.

Other right:

Shane Ross (Dublin South) - stockbroker, business journalist and general commentator and campaigner on shareholder issues. Has gained notice for his criticism of the business culture that led to the current crash (although he was less critical of some of the major figures involved during the time of the bubble itself). Member of the Senate for Trinity College Dublin and briefly a member of Fine Gael in the early 90s, which liaison ended badly. Anglo-Irish self-publicist and prime mover in the "Independent Alliance", whose main aim seems to be to get him a cabinet position.

Stephen Donnelly (Wicklow) - former management consultant with McKinsey and Harvard Kennedy School of Government graduate, campaigned on economic issues in generally vague terms. Now with the Social Democrats.

Both of these are highly critical of the terms of the EU/IMF bailout and general banking policy.

Others:
Michael Fitzmaurice (Roscommon-Galway) - succeeded Luke "Ming" Flanagan after the latter was elected to the European Parliament in 2014. Doesn't share his predecessor's views on herb, but is active in opposition to restrictions on turf-cutting brought in by EU regulations (the ability to cut and use turf as fuel instead of other fuels being a major issue in rural areas). Generally vocal on the run-down of services in rural areas and the lack of any perceived economic recovery outside of Dublin. Part of the "Independent Alliance".

Michael Harty (Clare) - local general practitioner, stood on a platform of opposition to cuts in rural medical services and rural neglect more generally.

Michael Collins (Cork South West) - no, not that Michael Collins. Farmer from far west Cork standing on a platform protesting neglect of rural areas.

Seán Canney (Galway East) - another rural independent and member of the "Independent Alliance".

[ilikeverin]

Lovely, very helpful!

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Btw if anyone could post some tallies here that would be great. I already have Dublin Bay South, Longford-Westmeath and Sligo-Leitrim. I'm especially looking for Dublin Rathdown, Dublin Central, and Dun Laoghaire.

Also if anyone (shot in the dark here) has a blank map of Longford-Westmeath or Sligo-Leitrim, or any constituency for that matte, that would be great.

[Kevinstat]

So I take it final numbers are finally out now? What are they?

FG 50, FF 44 (-1 as speaker), SF 23, Lab 7, Alphabet Left 6 (SP 3, SWP 3), SD 3, GP 2, Oth 23.

Did Ó Fearghaíl have any competition for the post?  I just learned of his election and that such elections are by secret ballot.  Wikipedia's listing him as the Ceann Comhairle on the members list while in the past they've listed the one (if any) who was CC going into the election in which that Dáil was elected and was thus elected unopposed.

From five years ago with appropriate modifications:
...
Other right:
...
Stephen Donnelly (Wicklow) - former management consultant with McKinsey and Harvard Kennedy School of Government graduate, campaigned on economic issues in generally vague terms. Now with the Social Democrats.

Both of these are highly critical of the terms of the EU/IMF bailout and general banking policy.

Quite a contrast, at first glance anyway.  Although I know the member(s) of the Social Democrats who was/were in Labour went along with a fair amount of austerity measures in the Fine Gael-Labour government before bolting.  And you did say Donnelly had "campaigned on economic issues in generally vague terms" in 2011.

Does he fit in well with his current party?  Ideologically?  Personally (with the other two SD TDs)?

[ObserverIE]

So I take it final numbers are finally out now? What are they?

FG 50, FF 44 (-1 as speaker), SF 23, Lab 7, Alphabet Left 6 (SP 3, SWP 3), SD 3, GP 2, Oth 23.

Did Ó Fearghaíl have any competition for the post?  I just learned of his election and that such elections are by secret ballot.  Wikipedia's listing him as the Ceann Comhairle on the members list while in the past they've listed the one (if any) who was CC going into the election in which that Dáil was elected and was thus elected unopposed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceann_Comhairle_election,_2016

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Quite a contrast, at first glance anyway.  Although I know the member(s) of the Social Democrats who was/were in Labour went along with a fair amount of austerity measures in the Fine Gael-Labour government before bolting.  And you did say Donnelly had "campaigned on economic issues in generally vague terms" in 2011.

Does he fit in well with his current party?  Ideologically?  Personally (with the other two SD TDs)?
[/quote]

He campaigned in 2011 on vaguely technocratic themes rather than being explicitly right-wing, and he was, once elected, more centrist and more critical of the impact of austerity measures than one might have expected.

Shortall was the only one of the three leaders to have been a Labour TD in the last Dáil and was a junior minister in the Health department before resigning in September 2012 after her party failed to support her in a row over the placement of primary care centres (she wanted to go with a ranking based on objective needs criteria while her senior - FG - minister insisted on placing centres in his own and the constituencies of political allies within FG). She would have voted for the measures in the 2011 budget but not for subsequent budgets. She had a notable spat with the odious Pat Rabbitte over this point during the election results programme.

My impression of the Social Democrats so far is that they're essentially a clone of the middle-class wing of Labour, but more focussed on good governance and social justice and while being socially liberal and secular, not (at least yet) fixated on the culture wars to the exclusion of all else in the way that Labour became. What they don't seem to have is a working-class base beyond whatever personal support Shortall and Murphy have.

[joevsimp]

so a couple of questions re: the upcoming Seanad elections.

Does Enda still get to appoint his 11 senators if there's no permanent Taoiseach is chosen by then?

It seems that our old friend, Senator Power is hoping that the graduates of Trinity College will return her to her lofty perch, any chance of success?

[Јas]

so a couple of questions re: the upcoming Seanad elections.

Does Enda still get to appoint his 11 senators if there's no permanent Taoiseach is chosen by then?

No, I shouldn't think so.

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https://www.constitution.ie/Documents/Bhunreacht_na_hEireann_web.pdf


Enda Kenny having not yet been re-appointed would not appear to have the authority to make such appointments until the Dáil re-elects him as Taoiseach, if it chooses to do so.


The question hasn't arisen before.

This is the third time we've had an acting Taoiseach.

First was Haughey from 29 June to 12 July 1989.
Second was Reynolds from 14 Dec 1992 to 12 Jan 1993.

In 89, the Dáil took 4 sittings to elect a Taoiseach, and conducted essentially no other business during those sittings than to debate that matter.

In 92/93, the Dáil took 6 sittings to elect a Taoiseach, and did conduct some substantive legislative business during those sittings including a Finance Bill. The acting Government also made its nomination to the European Commission during that period.

In both cases the Seanad elections occurred after the Dáil had elected a Taoiseach - so the question didn't arise.

Today, the 32nd Dáil meets for the second time - but the nomination of a Taoiseach is not on the agenda.

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http://www.oireachtas.ie/viewdoc.asp?fn=/documents/thisweek/business-2016/document12.htm



On a point of quite trivial interest, I notice on the proposed Private Members Business of the Order of Business, that the Independents4Change have put down a serious of motions with the support of Thomas Pringle (i-Donegal) and Catherine Connolly (i-Galway West). None of the other parties have, that I have seen, put down any motions which gained the support of any independents or non-party members.

It seems that our old friend, Senator Power is hoping that the graduates of Trinity College will return her to her lofty perch, any chance of success?

I've yet to really look at the Seanad nominations; hopefully will do in the coming week or two.

[ObserverIE]

It seems that our old friend, Senator Power is hoping that the graduates of Trinity College will return her to her lofty perch, any chance of success?

Adorable Averil has been endorsed by Leo Varadkar. I fully expect to see her standing as a FG candidate at the next Dáil election, whenever that comes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Still no government in sight?

[ObserverIE]

Still no government in sight?

No.

FG is currently in round-table talks with every independent in sight, promising a kinder, gentler Blueshirtism washed clean of any taint of Toryism and with added consideration for rural Ireland. Whatever results would still need the acquiescence of FF for survival beyond the first budget so this is essentially shadow-boxing for the moment.

[ObserverIE]

We're still waiting for a Taoiseach to be elected, by the way. Third set of nominations today which will all be voted down like the last two sets. No rush.

The FG/Independent talks have meandered on and on until FG bit the bullet last week and arranged talks between Kenny and Martin. At this 20-minute meeting, Kenny offered Martin the role of mudguardequal partner in a FG/FF/Ind government that would not, absoutely not, be a coalition but rather an "equal partnership" and entirely new type of government which would just happen to have Enda as Taoiseach. FG helpfully started briefing the national media as to the correct line to take while the meeting was still going on.

The FF parliamentary party, unenthusiastic about any coalition to begin with and further cheesed off with the attempted spin, rejected a coalition the next day. They are instead pushing for a minority government arrangement which would be led by one party (theoretically this could be FF but in practice would be FG) but where the other main party would either support government measures or constructively abstain in order to let legislation pass as long as the policies were to their taste. There were talks about this type of framework between the two main parties last night which broke up prematurely. FG holding the structure and pricing of Irish Water to their breasts as a must-have, along with their rejection of the notion of their supporting a theoretical minority FF government, are not improving the atmosphere, and FF are absolutely determined to avoid being associated with a FG government. Square that circle if you can.

The various independents, particularly the rural ones, are apparently wary of being seen to reinstall FG (and Kenny in particular) in power and have supposedly been getting it in the neck from their support bases at the prospect. The FG would-be leaders (Varadkar, Coveney, Fitzgerald), meanwhile, are waiting to see if Kenny succeeds in getting enough votes to become Taoiseach before considering the possibility of a palace coup.

Off to the side, the suppurating corpse of the Labour Party is continuing to provide amusement. Brendan Howlin (Public Expenditure minister and mini-me to FG's finance minister) is anxious to take over the leadership but only if he is unopposed. Meanwhile, Joan Burton and her deputy Alan Kelly are supposedly prepared to overcome their mutual loathing to nominate and second each other for a leadership contest - because no one else among the TDs would be prepared to do so.

Update: Kenny gets the support of Lowry (corrupt ex-FG minister) and Zappone. Martin gets only his own TDs. The rest of the independents abstain on both. FF have more or less said that they won't propose Martin as Taoiseach again, so its now up to the independents and FG to try to reach a deal that FF will tolerate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I guess at this point the talks of new elections must have started?

[ObserverIE]

I guess at this point the talks of new elections must have started?

2017 still more likely. Kenny likely to muddle through until some scandal/fyck-up/change in public support brings him down.

[ObserverIE]

Another poll from Behaviour and Attitudes for the Sunday Times, for what it's worth. Changes in comparison with the last B&A before the general election:

FF 26 (+4)
FG 23 (-7)
Ind/Oth 18 (+3)
SF 17 (+2)
Lab 4 (-)
SP/SWP 4 (-1)
GP 3 (+1)
WP 3 (+2) (bwaahaahaa...)
SD 2 (-1)
Renua 1 (-2)

FF's failure to take up FG's offer of junior partnership clearly doing them immense damage, exactly as predicted by the pol. corrs.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Another poll from Behaviour and Attitudes for the Sunday Times, for what it's worth. Changes in comparison with the last B&A before the general election:

FF 26 (+4)
FG 23 (-7)
Ind/Oth 18 (+3)
SF 17 (+2)
Lab 4 (-)
SP/SWP 4 (-1)
GP 3 (+1)
WP 3 (+2) (bwaahaahaa...)
SD 2 (-1)
Renua 1 (-2)

FF's failure to take up FG's offer of junior partnership clearly doing them immense damage, exactly as predicted by the pol. corrs.

OTOH that's basically Margin of Errors changes from the GE result. Need more polls, methinks.

[ObserverIE]

Another poll from Behaviour and Attitudes for the Sunday Times, for what it's worth. Changes in comparison with the last B&A before the general election:

FF 26 (+4)
FG 23 (-7)
Ind/Oth 18 (+3)
SF 17 (+2)
Lab 4 (-)
SP/SWP 4 (-1)
GP 3 (+1)
WP 3 (+2) (bwaahaahaa...)
SD 2 (-1)
Renua 1 (-2)

FF's failure to take up FG's offer of junior partnership clearly doing them immense damage, exactly as predicted by the pol. corrs.

OTOH that's basically Margin of Errors changes from the GE result. Need more polls, methinks.

True, but OTOOH these are pollsters which overestimated FG (and in the case of RedC underestimated FF) in the run-up to the election, and I'm not convinced yet that that particular failing has been fixed or even addressed. An MRBI would be nice

[ObserverIE]

Two notes of update here.

The counting for the Seanad elections is complete.

...

It also means that observer will be particularly disappointed as Longford's favourite son, James Bannon, somehow failed to get enough support from his fellow politicians to get returned to Leinster House by the back door.

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Independents currently seem likely to be offered four cabinet positions (one for Zappone, one for the "Rural Alliance", two for the "Independent Alliance"). I doubt if the "Rural Alliance" one will materialise - I can't see either the Healys-Rae or Mattie McGrath ultimately supporting Kenny for Taoiseach.

I suspect FF's calculation is that they won't need to explicitly bring down this government because it will fall asunder under its own steam. Get ready for Election 2017.

[ObserverIE]

Kenny finally crawls over line to be elected Taoiseach.

Yes 59 No 49 Abstain 49

The 59 is FG (50) + Lowry + Zappone + 5 of the Independent Alliance (Fitzmaurice abstained) + 2 of the Rural Alliance (Naughten and Harty)

The 49 against are SF (23) + Lab (7) + Alphabet Left (6) + SD (3) + Independents for Change (4) + Seamus Healy, Catherine Connolly, Mattie McGrath, Michael Collins, Thomas Pringle, Healy-Rae The Beard

The 49 abstaining are FF (43) + Greens (2) + Fitzmaurice, Grealish, Maureen O'Sullivan and Healy-Rae The Cap

[aross]

Was the Healy-Rae split arranged, or is this an indication Beard may be developing a brain of his own? I presume the former, but why?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Cabinet

[joevsimp]

Is that a demotion for Varadkar? He was at Health before no? and being talked up as a future leader

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Is that a demotion for Varadkar? He was at Health before no? and being talked up as a future leader

This is generally seen as a demotion for Vardakar. But OTOH it might be an indication that the government is about to get 'tough(er than it already is)' on welfare spending.

[ObserverIE]

Is that a demotion for Varadkar? He was at Health before no? and being talked up as a future leader

This is generally seen as a demotion for Vardakar. But OTOH it might be an indication that the government is about to get 'tough(er than it already is)' on welfare spending.

You could argue that with Varadkar in charge of welfare spending, Bruton Minor in charge of education, Harris in charge of health and Donohoe in charge of the overall purse strings at public expenditure/reform, the metropolitan Toryboy wing of the party has been given a lot of the reins of public spending.

It will be interesting to see how their instincts square with all the guff that we heard during the talks with the independents and FF about a kinder, gentler Fine Gael that realised that its harshness and arrogance had turned off the electorate beyond SoCoDu.

Personally, I don't think FG is psychologically capable of realising that "it wasn't you, it was me" where its relationship with the electorate is concerned, and I expect the Toryboys to revert to type soon enough, at which point some of the rural independents may pull the plug and we're back to the polls sometime next year, while FF practices its "more in sorrow than in anger" face on the opposition benches.

[ObserverIE]

As another thought, with the promotions of Donohoe and Harris (both consummate arse-lickers to Kenny) and the landing of Coveney and Varadkar with the task of dealing with the housing/homelessness problem, it may well be that Kenny is trying to increase the number of ministers who fancy themselves as his successor, all with the purpose of ensuring that none of them can establish a clear lead as the anointed one, enabling him to continue on as Taoiseach into the next election campaign.

[Kevinstat]

(Republic of) Ireland constituency review 2016-17 (a thread I've started that folks visiting this thread might be interested in)