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September 30, 2020, 02:59:10 am
News: First US presidential debate discussion thread link:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=400306.0

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI (search mode)
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Author Topic: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI  (Read 3795 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 55,068
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P

« on: June 26, 2016, 09:35:11 am »









http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-poll-florida-north-carolina-wisconsin-colorado-battleground-states
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 55,068
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P

« Reply #1 on: June 26, 2016, 09:38:20 am »

Full results with 3rd party candidates:



https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/06/26/battleground-colorado-florida-north-carolina-wisco
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 55,068
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P

« Reply #2 on: June 26, 2016, 09:42:40 am »

I find it hard to believe that Clinton does better in North Carolina than in Colorado.

Previous polls in CO had her down by 10, so +1 is definitely an improvement for her.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 55,068
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P

« Reply #3 on: June 26, 2016, 10:16:21 am »

It's hard to imagine a world where Clinton is up ~7 points nationally, and up 1 in CO or up only 5 in WI.  And I don't think you can really blame RV/LV split, because from what we've seen from polls that have given us both RV and LV results, there is little-to-no Repub LV advantage this year. 

I know she's not a great fit for CO, but neither is Trump.  We have seen Dems well overperform their polling in CO and NV, so that could be going on.

You guys are forgetting the MoE: Clinton could be leading by 9 in WI right now (which is what Marquette showed). I think she's eventually favoured in CO as well (it usually underpolls for the Dem. candidate). But in general, all these state polls recently match up with a 5-6% national lead ... and not a 12-point lead (like that garbage WaPo poll says).
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