This is the map that goes with this poll (a Clinton 12-point lead with these demographics):
LMAO at Mississippi and South Carolina going to Clinton. Logically that would require a change in elasticity and a Democratic trend from 2012, just no.
Mississippi trended 5% Democrat in 2012. Straight-up margin has also gone from 19% to 13% to 11.5%. So, we can argue both a Democrat trend, and elasticity. Mississippi is also < 60% white, and we're talking about Trump here. So, all it would take is another 3.36% Democrat trend to flip the state if Clinton's margin is 12%.
South Carolina had a much smaller Democrat trend in 2012. However, a 2.33% Democratic trend would be all that is needed to flip the state, and that's not at all unreasonable given its demographics. The state has ranged in margin from 6% to 17%, hardly inelastic.
But my main point in drawing this map is that this poll is kind of ridiculous. I don't think a 12% margin nationally is going to happen.
