ABC-Washngton Post: Clinton up by 12 (user search)
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  ABC-Washngton Post: Clinton up by 12 (search mode)
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Author Topic: ABC-Washngton Post: Clinton up by 12  (Read 3447 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: June 26, 2016, 09:36:15 AM »
Nope.

She's not up by more than 5 nationally.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: June 26, 2016, 09:47:57 AM »
Quote from: Holmes on June 26, 2016, 09:44:59 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on June 26, 2016, 09:36:15 AM
Nope.

She's not up by more than 5 nationally.

No. You're underestimating the Blaxicasians the same way Sanders did. Election is Safe D.

There are certainly enough Blaxicasians out there to lift her to a 5-point win, but not a 12-point win.

A 12-point win would only be possible if Hillary were actually popular with people (=> she's not).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: June 26, 2016, 09:55:33 AM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on June 26, 2016, 09:52:17 AM
The primaries are over. You can drop the anti-Hillary charade.

I'm not anti-Hillary here, I'm just posting facts. (I'd also vote for her, for example if I'd live in CO).

Quote from: Holmes on June 26, 2016, 09:53:10 AM
At least we won't come 30k votes close to electing a fascist for President (=> like Austria).

Who knows ... don't count the chickens before they hatch.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #3 on: June 26, 2016, 09:59:30 AM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on June 26, 2016, 09:57:18 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on June 26, 2016, 09:55:33 AM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on June 26, 2016, 09:52:17 AM
The primaries are over. You can drop the anti-Hillary charade.

I'm not anti-Hillary here, I'm just posting facts. (I'd also vote for her, for example if I'd live in CO).

No you don't. Polling averages show her ahead by 7, so I don't really know where you get your 5 point "prediction" other than your gut.

Exactly: RCP has her ahead by 5-6% nationally, which makes sense considering the state polls.

But not a 12-point lead ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #4 on: June 26, 2016, 10:24:29 AM »
This poll is likely an outlier:

It has Obama's approval at 56%, but it's at 51% on the RCP average.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #5 on: June 26, 2016, 10:38:39 AM »
Quote from: john cage bubblegum on June 26, 2016, 10:36:42 AM
FWIW,

PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
Based on everything we're doing publicly and privately believe NBC/WSJ a lot more than ABC/WP
9:21 AM - 26 Jun 2016

Yepp. There's no credible explanation why Hillary would be up by 12 when she's so unpopular ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #6 on: June 26, 2016, 10:50:25 AM »
Quote from: Desroko on June 26, 2016, 10:41:18 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on June 26, 2016, 10:38:39 AM
Quote from: john cage bubblegum on June 26, 2016, 10:36:42 AM
FWIW,

PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
Based on everything we're doing publicly and privately believe NBC/WSJ a lot more than ABC/WP
9:21 AM - 26 Jun 2016

Yepp. There's no credible explanation why Hillary would be up by 12 when she's so unpopular ...

Yeah, none at all. I can't think of any reason why Clinton would have a wide lead in this referendum, in which she has no opponent, certainly not one that is far more unpopular than she is.

Hillary is at 42-54 and Trump at 36-60.

That's not "far" more unpopular. In line with a 6-point national Clinton lead, but certainly not 12 points ...
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