ABC-Washngton Post: Clinton up by 12
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 10:34:38 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  ABC-Washngton Post: Clinton up by 12
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: ABC-Washngton Post: Clinton up by 12  (Read 3389 times)
Desroko
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 346
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: June 26, 2016, 10:41:18 AM »

FWIW,

PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
Based on everything we're doing publicly and privately believe NBC/WSJ a lot more than ABC/WP
9:21 AM - 26 Jun 2016

Yepp. There's no credible explanation why Hillary would be up by 12 when she's so unpopular ...

Yeah, none at all. I can't think of any reason why Clinton would have a wide lead in this referendum, in which she has no opponent, certainly not one that is far more unpopular than she is.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: June 26, 2016, 10:50:25 AM »

FWIW,

PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
Based on everything we're doing publicly and privately believe NBC/WSJ a lot more than ABC/WP
9:21 AM - 26 Jun 2016

Yepp. There's no credible explanation why Hillary would be up by 12 when she's so unpopular ...

Yeah, none at all. I can't think of any reason why Clinton would have a wide lead in this referendum, in which she has no opponent, certainly not one that is far more unpopular than she is.

Hillary is at 42-54 and Trump at 36-60.

That's not "far" more unpopular. In line with a 6-point national Clinton lead, but certainly not 12 points ...
Logged
Desroko
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 346
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: June 26, 2016, 11:02:20 AM »

FWIW,

PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
Based on everything we're doing publicly and privately believe NBC/WSJ a lot more than ABC/WP
9:21 AM - 26 Jun 2016

Yepp. There's no credible explanation why Hillary would be up by 12 when she's so unpopular ...

Yeah, none at all. I can't think of any reason why Clinton would have a wide lead in this referendum, in which she has no opponent, certainly not one that is far more unpopular than she is.

Hillary is at 42-54 and Trump at 36-60.

That's not "far" more unpopular. In line with a 6-point national Clinton lead, but certainly not 12 points ...

...He is literally 12 points more unpopular according to the numbers you just posted. Did you even read what you just copy-pasted?
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: June 26, 2016, 11:02:39 AM »
« Edited: June 26, 2016, 11:12:33 AM by Seriously? »

FWIW,

PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
Based on everything we're doing publicly and privately believe NBC/WSJ a lot more than ABC/WP
9:21 AM - 26 Jun 2016

Yepp. There's no credible explanation why Hillary would be up by 12 when she's so unpopular ...

You're wasting your breath with these red avatars. They don't realize that Republicans and some of the progressive left hate Hillary! as much, if not more than Democrats dislike Trump.

With that said, this poll is the outlier of the bunch. Most other reputable pollsters have it about a 5-6 point race right now.

Additionally, we're talking RV and not LV at this point, this A+ rating that is claimed is more for the final poll not some poll in June.
Logged
Fusionmunster
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,483


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: June 26, 2016, 11:06:30 AM »

FWIW,

PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
Based on everything we're doing publicly and privately believe NBC/WSJ a lot more than ABC/WP
9:21 AM - 26 Jun 2016

Average pollster takes issue with above average pollster.
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,802
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: June 26, 2016, 11:11:08 AM »

12 points is probably too lopsided a lead but I think she's up by more than what NBC/WSJ says. Something like +7 or +8 nationally sounds right
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: June 26, 2016, 01:09:12 PM »
« Edited: June 26, 2016, 01:18:16 PM by Ebsy »

This poll isn't an outlier considering that Bloomberg and Reuters have both shown her with similar leads.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: June 26, 2016, 02:16:18 PM »

What a nice poll!
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: June 26, 2016, 11:02:05 PM »

I do find it interesting how consistently Clinton's lead has been coming from doing better than Obama with white voters, with the Hispanic vote barely budging from 2012.  Trump is consistently at or over 20% with Hispanics, so I think we need to start taking that possibility seriously.
Most national polls don't do a very consistent job of capturing a good picture of how Latino voters will actually break on election day.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: June 27, 2016, 06:37:47 AM »
« Edited: June 27, 2016, 06:49:41 AM by pbrower2a »

I do find it interesting how consistently Clinton's lead has been coming from doing better than Obama with white voters, with the Hispanic vote barely budging from 2012.  Trump is consistently at or over 20% with Hispanics, so I think we need to start taking that possibility seriously.
Most national polls don't do a very consistent job of capturing a good picture of how Latino voters will actually break on election day.

Distribution of partisanship within an ethnic group is well established. What is hard to predict at times is voter turnout. So if Democrats are successful in getting Hispanics out to vote in high numbers, then they can get more electoral successes.   But this is not predictable.

...Barack Obama may be one of the slickest politicians ever, but he also got strong negatives from white voters in the Mountain and Deep South. The white vote for Obama was about normal for a Democrat in the northeastern quadrant of the US and the far and Mountain West, but far below average for a Democrat -- almost in McGovern-Mondale territory -- in Mississippi (the definition of the Deep South), West Virginia (the definition of the Mountain South), and Georgia (which straddles both regions). It will take a huge rebound for any Democratic nominee to make states in the Mountain and Deep South competitive again. 

As this election approached I thought that Hillary Clinton would do about as well as Obama did in 2012 in the northeastern quadrant and the West, which is good enough to win. I also expected her to get rebounds to levels of support characteristic of Al Gore in the Mountain and Deep South, which would not be enough to win there. This assumed a reasonably-competent Republican capable of holding the recent GOP coalition together.

Of course we all know how assumptions go. She is doing about as well as Obama in the Northeast and the West.  But Trump is simply awful.     
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,468
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: June 27, 2016, 08:33:52 AM »

That is fantastic news! Drumpf is in decline and Democrats unite.
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: June 27, 2016, 01:46:24 PM »

Trump leads 45-43 among independents?  What's all that about?
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: June 27, 2016, 10:25:49 PM »
« Edited: June 27, 2016, 10:29:08 PM by Beef »

This is the map that goes with this poll (a Clinton 12-point lead with these demographics):



Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: June 27, 2016, 10:27:34 PM »

Trump leads 45-43 among independents?  What's all that about?

Romney won independents 50-45 and still lost.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: June 28, 2016, 02:32:17 AM »

Trump leads 45-43 among independents?  What's all that about?

Romney won independents 50-45 and still lost.

Trump is going to do relatively well with Independents since people who reject the party system are more likely to dislike Clinton and support someone like him.

Note that she crushes him among Moderates so it doesn't reflect swing voter popularity. There are lot of hard right and hard left Independents.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: June 29, 2016, 06:47:20 AM »

This is the map that goes with this poll (a Clinton 12-point lead with these demographics):





LMAO at Mississippi and South Carolina going to Clinton. Logically that would require a change in elasticity and a Democratic trend from 2012, just no.
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: June 29, 2016, 10:23:47 AM »

This is the map that goes with this poll (a Clinton 12-point lead with these demographics):





LMAO at Mississippi and South Carolina going to Clinton. Logically that would require a change in elasticity and a Democratic trend from 2012, just no.

Mississippi trended 5% Democrat in 2012.  Straight-up margin has also gone from 19% to 13% to 11.5%.  So, we can argue both a Democrat trend, and elasticity.  Mississippi is also < 60% white, and we're talking about Trump here.  So, all it would take is another 3.36% Democrat trend to flip the state if Clinton's margin is 12%.

South Carolina had a much smaller Democrat trend in 2012.  However, a 2.33% Democratic trend would be all that is needed to flip the state, and that's not at all unreasonable given its demographics.  The state has ranged in margin from 6% to 17%, hardly inelastic.

But my main point in drawing this map is that this poll is kind of ridiculous.  I don't think a 12% margin nationally is going to happen.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: June 29, 2016, 06:21:33 PM »

Sorry guys, but this isn't some Dem hack pollster. Remember they showed Trump up 2 in May, which many people used as ammunition for their "HILLARY IS DOOMED!" prophecies.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: June 29, 2016, 07:38:30 PM »

Sorry guys, but this isn't some Dem hack pollster. Remember they showed Trump up 2 in May, which many people used as ammunition for their "HILLARY IS DOOMED!" prophecies.

This x100.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: June 29, 2016, 09:07:47 PM »

Sorry guys, but this isn't some Dem hack pollster. Remember they showed Trump up 2 in May, which many people used as ammunition for their "HILLARY IS DOOMED!" prophecies.
Yeah, because all the other pollsters are pushing polls with a D+10 electorate and self-identified Republicans at 27%, which hasn't happened in any cycle from 2004-2012.

This just happens to be the outlier of the bunch. It happens.

And I don't want to hear but but but the Reuter's Interwebs polls, which to me aren't really good for anything other than tracking movement.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: June 29, 2016, 09:10:29 PM »

Sorry guys, but this isn't some Dem hack pollster. Remember they showed Trump up 2 in May, which many people used as ammunition for their "HILLARY IS DOOMED!" prophecies.
Yeah, because all the other pollsters are pushing polls with a D+10 electorate and self-identified Republicans at 27%, which hasn't happened in any cycle from 2004-2012.

This just happens to be the outlier of the bunch. It happens.

And I don't want to hear but but but the Reuter's Interwebs polls, which to me aren't really good for anything other than tracking movement.

Bloomberg has also had results around this number. So that's 3 polls. Just put them all in an average, which is currently at 6%. That seems about right.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: June 29, 2016, 09:20:00 PM »

Sorry guys, but this isn't some Dem hack pollster. Remember they showed Trump up 2 in May, which many people used as ammunition for their "HILLARY IS DOOMED!" prophecies.
Yeah, because all the other pollsters are pushing polls with a D+10 electorate and self-identified Republicans at 27%, which hasn't happened in any cycle from 2004-2012.

This just happens to be the outlier of the bunch. It happens.

And I don't want to hear but but but the Reuter's Interwebs polls, which to me aren't really good for anything other than tracking movement.

Bloomberg has also had results around this number. So that's 3 polls. Just put them all in an average, which is currently at 6%. That seems about right.
Seltzer is the gold standard for Iowa, but still has a bit of work to do nationally with these Bloomberg polls. She never seems to have it tweaked right. On the other side, you have a +2 and +4 today, so my guess is the 5-7 point narrative is truer than not.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.061 seconds with 12 queries.