ME-UNH: Clinton +7 overall, -2 in ME-02

[HillOfANight]

http://stateandcapitol.bangordailynews.com/2016/06/25/poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-maine-but-race-tied-in-2nd-district

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:http://www.pressherald.com/2016/06/24/maine-voters-dissatisfied-with-presidential-options/

Maine allocates two Electoral College votes to the overall winner and one each for the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district.

Clinton 42
Trump 35
Other 19
Undecided 4

In the 2nd District, 64 percent of voters had an unfavorable view of Clinton to 57 percent for Trump. Head to head, the race there is a virtual tie, with Trump getting 30 percent of support to Clinton’s 28 percent.

[HillOfANight]

So +7 in the state and -2 in ME-02? Rough math makes the swing between the two districts 16% to get a +7 statewide result. So it's Clinton +14 in ME-01.

Seriously?

There was a 7% difference in 2012. And there's a 7% difference with Cook PVI D+9 for ME-1 and D+2 for ME-2. So... ummmm. no...

Likely voters in Maine’s more urban, Democratic and southern 1st Congressional District favored Clinton over Trump, 42 percent to 27 percent. But the race appears to be more of a dead heat in the state’s more rural and northern 2nd Congressional District, where 30 percent of likely voters said they favor Trump compared to only 28 percent who favor Clinton.

[HillOfANight]

A lot of prognosticators have been sounding the alarm that Maine/Nebraska could share its delegates between both candidates, with most saying Trump more likely to lose Nebraska's than Clinton to lose Maine's, but that doesn't seem to be the case here.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-only-thing-that-matters/
http://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/first-read-battleground-map-shows-disadvantages-trump-n569266