Predict the 2020 GOP primaries

[Senator-elect Spark]

2020 Republican Primary Calendar

Total delegates : 2435 delegates
Delegates needed to win the nomination : 1218 delegates

January

January 6 : Iowa (28 delegates)
January 13 : New Hampshire (21 delegates)
January 24 : South Carolina (48 delegates)
January 27 : North Carolina (71 delegates)
January 31 : Maine (22 delegates)

February

February 3 : Colorado (35 delegates), Minnesota (34 delegates)
February 6 : Nevada (29 delegates)
February 24 : Michigan (58 delegates), Wyoming (27 delegates)

March

March 3 (SUPER TUESDAY) : Alaska (26 delegates), Arkansas (38 delegates), Florida (98 delegates), Georgia (74 delegates), Idaho (32 delegates), Massachusetts (41 delegates), North Dakota (28 delegates), Oklahoma (41 delegates), Tennessee (56 delegates), Texas (153 delegates), Vermont (16 delegates), Virginia (49 delegates)
March 7 : Louisiana (46 delegates), Washington (43 delegates)
March 10 : Hawaii (19 delegates), Mississippi (38 delegates), Ohio (65 delegates), American Samoa (9 delegates)
March 14 : Kansas (40 delegates), Guam (9 delegates), Northern Marianas (9 delegates), U.S. Virgin Islands (9 delegates)
March 15 : Puerto Rico (23 delegates)
March 17 : Alabama (50 delegates), Illinois (69 delegates), Missouri (52 delegates)
March 24 : Arizona (56 delegates), Utah (40 delegates)

April

April 7 : Washington D.C. (19 delegates), Maryland (38 delegates), Wisconsin (42 delegates)
April 21 : Connecticut (28 delegates), Delaware (17 delegates), Rhode Island (19 delegates), New York (95 delegates), Pennsylvania (73 delegates)

May

May 5 : Indiana (57 delegates)
May 12 : Nebraska (34 delegates), West Virginia (32 delegates)
May 19 : Kentucky (46 delegates)
May 26 : Oregon (28 delegates)

June

June 9 : California (172 delegates), Montana (27 delegates), New Jersey (52 delegates), New Mexico (24 delegates), South Dakota (30 delegates)

2020 Republican National Convention

Date(s) : July 12-15 2020
City : Las Vegas, Nevada

GOP Primary Results:

Former Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR)- 36 states, 2095 delegates, Republican nominee
Former Senator Scott Brown (R-MA)- 10 states, 239 delegates, withdrew on 4/23/20 and endorsed Tom Cotton
Senator Cory Gardner (R-CO)- 4 states, 96 delegates, withdrew on 5/12/20
Former Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL)- 0 states, 0 delegates, withdrew on 3/3/20, and endorsed Scott Brown, later Tom Cotton
Former Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX)- 0 states, 2 delegates, withdrew on 1/26/20, and endorsed Cory Gardner
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)- 0 states, 1 delegates, withdrew on 1/6/20, and endorsed Cory Gardner
Former Governor Scott Walker (R-WI)- 0 states, 0 delegates, withdrew on 1/8/20, and endorsed Scott Brown, later Tom Cotton
Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE)- 0 states, 0 delegates, withdrew on 1/6/20, and endorsed Cory Gardner
Former Governor Mike Pence (R-IN)- 0 states, 0 delegates, withdrew on 12/27/19, and endorsed Scott Brown, later Tom Cotton
Former Governor Bruce Rauner (R-IL)- 0 states, 0 delegates, withdrew on 11/21/19, and endorsed Scott Brown, later Tom Cotton
Former Rep. Joe Walsh (R-IL)- 0 states, 0 delegates, withdrew on 10/24/19

[LLR]

Nikki Haley
Paul Ryan
Ted Cruz
Justin Amash

After New Hampshire, it comes down to these four. These four are all still in on Super Tuesday, when all did remotely well. Amash, in last place, received pressure to drop out, and did so. Cruz wins in Illinois and Missouri force Ryan out on March 17.

On June 9, Cruz and Haley are both still in. Cruz has 1065 delegates to Haley's 718, and a decent performance will win him the nomination. Wins in MT, NM, and SD coupled with a good showing in California push him over 1218. Haley respectfully drops out, and is given the VP nod.

Other (failed) candidates:

Tom Cotton
Rand Paul
Jon Huntsman Jr.
Mike Lee
Ben Sasse

[UWS]

Can you give me the link where we create maps like this?

[LLR]

Can you give me the link where we create maps like this?

Click the  on the top bar

[UWS]

After we complete these maps, how do we post them? On which button must we press to post the map?

[LLR]

After we complete these maps, how do we post them? On which button must we press to post the map?

"Show Map Link"

-copy that
-paste it in here

-voila!

[Kingpoleon]

Senator John Kasich - 55.6%
Senator Benjamin Sasse- 24.9%*
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich - 19.5%**

*Dropped out May 28, two days after losing Oregon with under 40%
**Dropped out March 24, after losing Utah

[cwt]

Paul Ryan (nominee)
Nikki Haley (withdrew April 21, 2020)
Ted Cruz (withdrew March 24, 2020)
John Kasich (withdrew March 3, 2020)

[UWS]

Total delegates : 2435 delegates
Delegates needed to win the nomination : 1218 delegates

• Marco Rubio : 1960 delegates, 41 states + D.C., PR, GU, NM, VI and AS, 63.1 % of the popular vote (Nominee)

• Paul Ryan : 329 delegates, 6 states, 23.4 % of the popular vote (withdrew on March 17, 2020)

• Scott Brown : 90 delegates, 3 states, 9.6 % of the popular vote (Withdrew on March 7, 2020)

• Mike Pence : 43 delegates, 0 state, 2.46 % of the popular vote  (withdrew on February 24, 2020)

• Ted Cruz : 7 delegates, 0 state, 0.87 % of the popular vote  (withdrew on January 24, 2020)

• John Kasich : 5 delegates, 0 state, 0.47 % of the popular vote (withdrew on January 13, 2020)

• Rand Paul : 1 delegate, 0 state, 0.1 % of the popular vote (withdrew on January 6, 2020)

After promising Iowan evangelicals to fight for freedom of religion by saving their coreligionists from ISIS' persecutions as well as by fighting ISIS with military action, Marco Rubio gets the support of many evangelicals. By promising tax credits for tractor companies and seed companies to help them create new jobs, innovate and produce more tractors and seeds, which will help Iowans to accomplish their agricultural activities and ensure their subsistence while reducing their dependence on food stamps. This strategy leads to Rubio's victory in Iowa on January 6th 2020. After finishing sixth with only 3 % of the vote, Rand Paul drops out.

Rubio's victory in Iowa boosts him in the polls in New Hampshire, so the first-in-the-nation primary becomes a three-man race between Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan and Scott Brown. Scott Brown has some advantages in New Hampshire : he's moderate, his home state of Massachusetts borders New Hampshire. But Paul Ryan also has advantages in this state : he was the running mate of Mitt Romney in 2012, Romney endorses him and campaigns for him in New Hampshire, a state where Romney is pretty popular. On January 13, Ryan narrowly wins the New Hampshire primary over Marco Rubio, who finished second, and Scott Brown, who finished third. After a dispointing fourth place, Senator John Kasich suspends his campaign.

Senator Rubio uses his foreign policy experience and accmomplishments to win votes among military veterans. He also reminded his policies empowering the United States Department of Veterans Affairs in order to care more about vets than bureaucrats. He gains the endorsements from former Governor Nikki Haley, Senator Tim Scott and Senator Lindsey Graham. Rubio wins handily in South Carolina on January 24. Ted Cruz withdraws and endorses Rubio.

Three days later, Rubio triumphs in North Carolina before Scott Brown wins the Maine caucuses on January 31. On February 3, Rubio wins again the Minnesota primary. The same day, he pulls off victory in Colorado thanks to the local Hispanic vote. On February 6th, we crushes his opponents by forming a coalition of Hispanics and Mormons and by the fact that he and his family lived in Las Vegas for a few years in the 1980s. Paul Ryan wins the Michigan on February 24 thanks to Wisconsin's neighborhood with the Wolverine State and to Romney's connections and name recognition in this state. The same day, he wins Wyoming with the support of the local Mormon community that was willing to back the running mate of the one who could have been the first Mormon President in 2012 : Mitt Romney. Mike Pence's disappointing results pushed him out of the race.

Super Tuesday is held on March 3, 2020. Senator Rubio easily wins his home state of Florida as well as Alaska, Arkansas (thanks to Mike Huckabee's and Tom Cotton's endorsements), Georgia (thanks to Georgia's neighborhood with Florida), Idaho, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas (with the support from the local Hispanic community, from the Bush family and from Ted Cruz) and Virginia. Speaker Ryan wins Tennessee with the support of the local evangelical christian electorate. Senator Brown wins his home state of Massachusetts as well as the state next door Vermont. Rubio has 649 delegates, Ryan has 230 delegates and Brown has 90 delegates.

On March 7, Brown loses both the Lousiana caucuses and the Washington state caucuses because of his opposition to International Trade Council to promote exports. Rubio wins both of these caucuses. Brown ends his campaign and supports Marco Rubio. Three days later, Rubio wins the crucial Ohio primary (because nobody won the White House without carrying Ohio in the general election and the Republican voters in the Buckeye State are willing to back a candidate who can win the general election and beat Hillary Clinton, while Paul Ryan lost Ohio and the 2012 election alongside Mitt Romney to Barack Obama) and the caucuses in Hawai and in the American Samoa while Ryan wins Mississippi. On March 14, while Ryan wins the Kansas caucuses, Rubio wins the ones in Guam, in the Northern Marianas and in the U.S. Virgin Islands. The next day, he easily wins the Puerto Rico primary with a massive support among the local Hispanic vote. In order to win the next contests, he casts Ryan's "Inner city" comments as offensive to the African-American community. On March 17, Senator Rubio wins the Alabama caucuses, the Illinois primary and, narrowly, the Missouri primary. Speaker Ryan drops out of the race and endorses Rubio. After winning the Arizona primary and the Utah caucuses on March 24 as well as the primaries in Wisconsin, in Maryland and in Washington D.C. on April 7, Marco Rubio clinches the Republican nomination for President of the United States of America after winning 1226 delegates, surpassing the requiring number of 1218 delegates on a total of 2435 delegates and becoming the first Hispanic to be nominated by one of the two major political parties in the United States.

In order to win among young people (because in 2020, all the Millenials will be eligible to vote), Hispanics, Asian-Americans and conservatives, Marco Rubio selects former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley as his running mate. They are officialy nominated at the 2020 Republican National Convention in Las Vegas held between July 12 and July 15. They went on to win the General Election on November 3 2020 over President Hillary Clinton and Vice-President Tim Kaine with 336 great electors, 34 states and 53 % of the popular vote against 202 great electors, 16 states (+ D.C.) and 45 % of the popular vote for the Democratic ticket.



 

[RINO Tom]

Why does everyone have Paul Ryan losing his own state?

[Senator-elect Spark]

Total delegates : 2435 delegates
Delegates needed to win the nomination : 1218 delegates

• Marco Rubio : 1960 delegates, 41 states + D.C., PR, GU, NM, VI and AS, 63.1 % of the popular vote (Nominee)

• Paul Ryan : 329 delegates, 6 states, 23.4 % of the popular vote (withdrew on March 17, 2020)

• Scott Brown : 90 delegates, 3 states, 9.6 % of the popular vote (Withdrew on March 7, 2020)

• Mike Pence : 43 delegates, 0 state, 2.46 % of the popular vote  (withdrew on February 24, 2020)

• Ted Cruz : 7 delegates, 0 state, 0.87 % of the popular vote  (withdrew on January 24, 2020)

• John Kasich : 5 delegates, 0 state, 0.47 % of the popular vote (withdrew on January 13, 2020)

• Rand Paul : 1 delegate, 0 state, 0.1 % of the popular vote (withdrew on January 6, 2020)

After promising Iowan evangelicals to fight for freedom of religion by saving their coreligionists from ISIS' persecutions as well as by fighting ISIS with military action, Marco Rubio gets the support of many evangelicals. By promising tax credits for tractor companies and seed companies to help them create new jobs, innovate and produce more tractors and seeds, which will help Iowans to accomplish their agricultural activities and ensure their subsistence while reducing their dependence on food stamps. This strategy leads to Rubio's victory in Iowa on January 6th 2020. After finishing sixth with only 3 % of the vote, Rand Paul drops out.

Rubio's victory in Iowa boosts him in the polls in New Hampshire, so the first-in-the-nation primary becomes a three-man race between Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan and Scott Brown. Scott Brown has some advantages in New Hampshire : he's moderate, his home state of Massachusetts borders New Hampshire. But Paul Ryan also has advantages in this state : he was the running mate of Mitt Romney in 2012, Romney endorses him and campaigns for him in New Hampshire, a state where Romney is pretty popular. On January 13, Ryan narrowly wins the New Hampshire primary over Marco Rubio, who finished second, and Scott Brown, who finished third. After a dispointing fourth place, Senator John Kasich suspends his campaign.

Senator Rubio uses his foreign policy experience and accomplishments to win votes among military veterans. He also reminded his policies empowering the United States Department of Veterans Affairs in order to care more about vets than bureaucrats. He gains the endorsements from former Governor Nikki Haley, Senator Tim Scott and Senator Lindsey Graham. Rubio wins handily in South Carolina on January 24. Ted Cruz withdraws and endorses Rubio.

Three days later, Rubio triumphs in North Carolina before Scott Brown wins the Maine caucuses on January 31. On February 3, Rubio wins again the Minnesota primary. The same day, he pulls off victory in Colorado thanks to the local Hispanic vote. On February 6th, we crushes his opponents by forming a coalition of Hispanics and Mormons and by the fact that he and his family lived in Las Vegas for a few years in the 1980s. Paul Ryan wins the Michigan on February 24 thanks to Wisconsin's neighborhood with the Wolverine State and to Romney's connections and name recognition in this state. The same day, he wins Wyoming with the support of the local Mormon community that was willing to back the running mate of the one who could have been the first Mormon President in 2012 : Mitt Romney. Mike Pence's disappointing results pushed him out of the race.

Super Tuesday is held on March 3, 2020. Senator Rubio easily wins his home state of Florida as well as Alaska, Arkansas (thanks to Mike Huckabee's and Tom Cotton's endorsements), Georgia (thanks to Georgia's neighborhood with Florida), Idaho, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas (with the support from the local Hispanic community, from the Bush family and from Ted Cruz) and Virginia. Speaker Ryan wins Tennessee with the support of the local evangelical christian electorate. Senator Brown wins his home state of Massachusetts as well as the state next door Vermont. Rubio has 649 delegates, Ryan has 230 delegates and Brown has 90 delegates.

On March 7, Brown loses both the Lousiana caucuses and the Washington state caucuses because of his opposition to International Trade Council to promote exports. Rubio wins both of these caucuses. Brown ends his campaign and supports Marco Rubio. Three days later, Rubio wins the crucial Ohio primary (because nobody won the White House without carrying Ohio in the general election and the Republican voters in the Buckeye State are willing to back a candidate who can win the general election and beat Hillary Clinton, while Paul Ryan lost Ohio and the 2012 election alongside Mitt Romney to Barack Obama) and the caucuses in Hawai and in the American Samoa while Ryan wins Mississippi. On March 14, while Ryan wins the Kansas caucuses, Rubio wins the ones in Guam, in the Northern Marianas and in the U.S. Virgin Islands. The next day, heeasily wins the Puerto Rico primary with a massive support among the local Hispanic vote. In order to win the next contests, he casts Ryan's "Inner city" comments as offensive to the African-American community. On March 17, Senator Rubio wins the Alabama caucuses, the Illinois primary and, narrowly, the Missouri primary. Speaker Ryan drops out of the race and endorses Rubio. After winning the Arizona primary and the Utah caucuses on March 24 as well as the primaries in Wisconsin, in Maryland and in Washington D.C., Marco Rubio clinches the Republican nomination for President of the United States of America after winning 1226 delegates, surpassing the requiring number of 1218 delegates on a total of 2435 delegates and becoming the first Hispanic to be nominated by one of the two major political parties in the United States.

In order to win among young people (because in 2020, all the Millenials will be eligible to vote), Hispanics, Asian-Americans and conservatives, Marco Rubio selects former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. They are officialy nominated at the 2020 Republican National Convention in Las Vegas held between July 12 and July 15. They went on to win the General Election on November 3 2020 over President Hillary Clinton and Vice-President Tim Kaine with 336 great electors, 34 states and 53 % of the popular vote against 202 great electors, 16 states (+ D.C.) and 45 % of the popular vote for the Democratic ticket.

Thought this was an excellent scenario, well explained.

[UWS]

Why does everyone have Paul Ryan losing his own state?

In my prediction's case, it's because Paul Ryan dropped out before the Wisconsin primary, so it clears the way for Marco Rubio to win this state. It's a few like what happened to Rick Santorum in 2012 : despite the fact that Pennsylvania is his home state, Mitt Romney has won the Pennsylvania primary because Santorum dropped out of the race before the Pennsylvania primary after losing the Wisconsin primary.

[evergreenarbor]

Paul Ryan: 1272 delegates, nominee
Nikki Haley: 649 delegates, withdrew June 9, 2020
Ted Cruz: 417 delegates, withdrew April 21, 2020
Marco Rubio: 97 delegates, withdrew March 3, 2020

[AGA]

Senator John Kasich - 55.6%
Senator Benjamin Sasse- 24.9%*
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich - 19.5%**

*Dropped out May 28, two days after losing Oregon with under 40%
**Dropped out March 24, after losing Utah

Newt Gingrich will be 76 at the start of the 2020 primaries; I doubt that he will try to run again.

[Kingpoleon]

Senator John Kasich - 55.6%
Senator Benjamin Sasse- 24.9%*
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich - 19.5%**

*Dropped out May 28, two days after losing Oregon with under 40%
**Dropped out March 24, after losing Utah

Newt Gingrich will be 76 at the start of the 2020 primaries; I doubt that he will try to run again.

I have him there to essentially meld Gingrich 2012/Trump 2016 primary voters. The only other candidates who might be able to pull it off are Bobby Jindal and Rick Scott, who are both pretty unpopular. Sessions doesn't seem like a national candidate to me. I don't think he'd try it.

Maybe if Andre Bauer gets elected in 2018, he could do it. Otherwise, Gingrich is the main Deep Southern/Eastern Southern Republican who endorsed Trump with charisma.

[heatcharger]

Senator Ted Cruz - 39.1%*
Former Governor Nikki Haley - 40.0%
Conspiracy Theorist Alex Jones - 15.9%
Former Speaker Paul Ryan - 3.2%**
Former Senator Marco Rubio - 0.9%***
Senator Ben Sasse - 0.4%****

*Wins on 2nd ballot
**Drops out after getting embarrassed in many states, endorses Haley
***Drops out after NH, endorses Haley
****Drops out after IA, endorses Cruz

Jones appeals to a similar electorate to Trump, yet gets 1/20th of the media coverage.
Kansas hates establishment Republicans.

[RINO Tom]

Senator Ted Cruz - 39.1%*
Former Governor Nikki Haley - 40.0%
Conspiracy Theorist Alex Jones - 15.9%
Former Speaker Paul Ryan - 3.2%**
Former Senator Marco Rubio - 0.9%***
Senator Ben Sasse - 0.4%****

*Wins on 2nd ballot
**Drops out after getting embarrassed in many states, endorses Haley
***Drops out after NH, endorses Haley
****Drops out after IA, endorses Cruz

Jones appeals to a similar electorate to Trump, yet gets 1/20th of the media coverage.
Kansas hates establishment Republicans.

KS hates establishment Republicans?!

[DKrol]

Senator John Kasich - 55.6%
Senator Benjamin Sasse- 24.9%*
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich - 19.5%**

*Dropped out May 28, two days after losing Oregon with under 40%
**Dropped out March 24, after losing Utah

I will kiss you if John Kasich runs again and wins the nomination.

[Kingpoleon]

Senator John Kasich - 55.6%
Senator Benjamin Sasse- 24.9%*
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich - 19.5%**

*Dropped out May 28, two days after losing Oregon with under 40%
**Dropped out March 24, after losing Utah

Newt Gingrich will be 76 at the start of the 2020 primaries; I doubt that he will try to run again.

I have him there to essentially meld Gingrich 2012/Trump 2016 primary voters. The only other candidates who might be able to pull it off are Bobby Jindal and Rick Scott, who are both pretty unpopular. Sessions doesn't seem like a national candidate to me. I don't think he'd try it.

Maybe if Andre Bauer gets elected in 2018, he could do it. Otherwise, Gingrich is the main Deep Southern/Eastern Southern Republican who endorsed Trump with charisma.

Now I'd say Henry McMaster, being the keynote speaker this year, could become Representative or Governor in 2018. The latter could definitely boost him up to where I had Gingrich.

[Kingpoleon]

Senator John Kasich - 55.6%
Senator Benjamin Sasse- 24.9%*
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich - 19.5%**

*Dropped out May 28, two days after losing Oregon with under 40%
**Dropped out March 24, after losing Utah

I will kiss you if John Kasich runs again and wins the nomination.

... Can I take a rain check? IIRC you're about five years older than me.