Nym90
nym90
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Posts: 16,260
Political Matrix E: -5.55, S: -2.96
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« on: June 28, 2016, 12:35:38 PM » |
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The economy of the Great Plains/farm belt was if anything possibly better in 1992 than it was in 1988, which helps explain why all of the counties that Bush gained were in this swath. Many of the Dukakis 1988 voters in these areas may have been voting for him as a generic protest vote rather than for ideological reasons and thus switched to Perot in 1992.
The fact that Clinton received about 3 percentage points less of the popular vote nationally than Dukakis shows that the Dukakis '88/Perot '92 voters were actually more numerous than the Bush '88/Clinton '92 voters nationally.
I doubt there were very many voters who actually switched from Dukakis to Bush, but obviously there are always some in any election who switch in either direction. Voters who cared about ethics/honesty above all else would have been the most logical (remember that the Iran Contra scandal sullied Bush in this regard 1988, and then of course Clinton's ethical issues were already well known by 1992).
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