2006 Democratic Wave? Yes, says secret poll....

[socaldem]

The DCCC has been recruiting like mad this year in House races and now they claim they have polls showing Republicans vulnerable.  Sure, its still early in the cycle but with Bush's poll numbers in the tank and after two horrible cycles, Democrats in the House finally have reason to cheer.

To me, the House is the most important seat of government for Democrats to hold because it controls the power of the purse and, thus, those bread and butter issues that are so near and dear to me and to my fellow liberals/populists...

--
Dems cheer House poll
By Josephine Hearn

 
Recent Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) polling shows that seven Republican members would be easily defeated if their reelection took place today, the committee’s chairman told House Democrats yesterday at a closed-door meeting.

While Rep. Rahm Emanuel (Ill.) did not name the members, who are from districts “around the country,” he said all polled at 43 percent or less when voters were asked if they would vote today to reelect their congressional representative, sources at the meeting told The Hill.
 
Emanuel said three of the Republicans polled below 40 percent, including one, from a Western state, at 32 percent and another, a Californian, at 34 percent. The DCCC has targeted three California members: Reps. David Dreier, Richard Pombo and Randy “Duke” Cunningham.

The numbers created a palpable buzz in the room, said one attendee, as the assembled Democrats mulled the prospect of unseating a handful of vulnerable Republicans. Democrats have seized on recent nationwide polls showing high disapproval ratings for Congress and the president.

Carl Forti, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, questioned the validity of the Democrats’ numbers.

“I’m not sure we have any that are polling at 43 percent or below,” he said. “If I’m the Democrats, I’m trying to show momentum any way I can get it. So if I have to commission a poll that is slightly tilted, I would do that.”

Some observers have suggested that Americans’ disaffection with Congress could rub off on Democrats as well as Republicans, leading to depressed poll numbers across the board. Emanuel dismissed that assertion, saying that polling in the districts of Democratic incumbents has not been as low as in the seven GOP districts.

“Let’s just say they [the Democratic poll numbers] are not trading in that band,” he told The Hill.

Emanuel also asserted that the party’s recruiting efforts have been progressing at a fast clip. So far, the DCCC has recruited 19 candidates to challenge incumbents or run for open seats, well ahead of the three candidates the committee had at this time last cycle, he said.

“The political environment has attracted a lot of well-qualified candidates,” said Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), who chairs the DCCC’s recruiting efforts. “We’ve been focused on getting lots of challengers and having them file early so that if there is a mood-swing election, we’re ready for it.”

Democrats are hoping that their efforts to highlight what they regard as “Republican abuse of power” in Congress, in particular the decision to intervene in the Terri Schiavo case and the ongoing impasse over House ethics procedures, will resonate with voters. Democrats also have sought to appeal to voters with their stand against private accounts in Social Security and in favor of stem-cell research.

“The national political climate has changed,” said Rep. Artur Davis (Ala.), one of the DCCC’s 10 regional recruitment chairs. “There is a perception that Bush is an albatross instead of an asset for Republicans.”

He added, “It was a challenge recruiting in ’03. Now, because of the opposition to Bush, we’re getting candidates to believe in the viability of the district.”

Montana state Rep. Monica Lindeen is expected to announce her candidacy against Rep. Dennis Rehberg (R) next week, Emanuel told the caucus meeting.

Emanuel also said he would closely monitor the political fallout from Cunningham’s sale of his Del Mar, Calif., home to a defense contractor. The watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington yesterday called on the House ethics committee to investigate the sale.

A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll showed that, although Americans have a poor view of Congress as a whole, they still support their own members of Congress. Sixty-one percent of respondents said they approved of the job their elected representatives were doing, while only 41 percent approved of Congress as a whole.

Sarah Feinberg, a DCCC spokeswoman, said those results do not contradict the DCCC polling, which showed a lack of support for members from their own constituents.

“I think that first of all [the high approval rating] is just not the case in these districts,” she said. “What we’re seeing nationally is that Americans are dissatisfied with Republican leadership. Their priorities are out of sync with Americans, and I think these polls show that.”
 
 

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Obviously it's a bit tilted just like the Republican polls.

[Jake]

I wouldn't trust a secret Democratic poll more than the WV poll that put Capito close.

[socaldem]

I wonder who the Republicans with the "under 40" poll numbers are....

If one's from California, it may be Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham because of the scandal, though, I'm not sure that would have impacted so soon...  Maybe its Rep. David Dreier R-26, then...

I'm betting Cunningham will either retire or be pushed out before the primary....and the district's fairly Republican, but I've heard that frmer Dem. State Sen. DeDe Alpert may run, though there's only a little overlap from her former district.

The other CA Republican to watch, apparently, is Richard Pombo R-CA11.  Apparently Dem STate sen. Michael Machado is being recruited to run against him.  They don't really share much turf, but for Machado its a free shot and Pombo has some negatives that can be exploited on the environment...and in a dem wave, who knows?  (Though I suspect if there is a Dem wave, it wont be in CA)...

As for the Western Democrat below 40, some are suggesting that it may be Washington Rep. Reichert R-08.  I've heard it might be Colorado's perennially troubled Musgrove as well, which is pretty much all there is in terms of Western republicans except for say Heather Wilson who probably has decent approvals.

I'm thinking the other Republican with low approvals is probably a freshman...perhaps Sodrel in IN-09 or Boustany down in LA-07....

Your thoughts?

[Jake]

Possibly Gerlach in PA

[WMS]

Probably not Heather Wilson, like you said. Musgrove, on the other hand...

[socaldem]

Oops...I meant Musgrave, not former Mississippi Gov. Ronnie Musgrove...

[WMS]

Oops...I meant Musgrave, not former Mississippi Gov. Ronnie Musgrove...

And I should've caught it as well.

[A18]

I'd be more likely to believe a secret poll by Libertarians.

[socaldem]

I'd be more likely to believe a secret poll by Libertarians.

Good... I hope Republicans get complacent because all the polls are indicating that people are hollerin' mad at the way your yahoos are running this place and I'd like to give y'all a nasty suprise!

[A18]

Oh, I get it. So a lot like 2002 and 2004, right?

If all the polls indicated it, you wouldn't cite a "secret poll" (i.e. absolute joke).

[Defarge]

I remember "secret polls" last year which said Bush was surrendering Ohio and that Kerry was ahead 10 in Florida...

[King]

I wouldn't trust a secret Democratic poll more than the WV poll that put Capito close.

In 1996, the Democratic candidate came within a few points of beating Strom Thurmond in SC.  I guess this means it will be Byrd's final term before he retires and dies.

[Alcon]

I remember "secret polls" last year which said Bush was surrendering Ohio and that Kerry was ahead 10 in Florida...

Shut up! Those are inconvenient and thus secret again!