NC-PPP: Burr +3

[The Other Castro]

Burr - 40%
Ross - 37%
Haugh - 5%
Undecided - 18%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_62316.pdf

[windjammer]

Burr was always going to be vulnerable. If Republicans win the trifecta (FL/OH/PA), NC might become a must-win for Democrats.

Of course there was the possibility that NC could be competitive, but I'm shocked to see how Burr doesn't fare better.

[pppolitics]

North Carolina rarely re-elect its senators    ...unless it Jess Helms

[SATW]

North Carolina rarely re-elect its senators    ...unless it Jess Helms

Burr's won twice already. NC does have an anti-incumbent streak but it's hardly an organized pattern.

[BuckeyeNut]

If Republicans win the trifecta (FL/OH/PA), NC might become a must-win for Democrats.

I'd inverse that statement.

[Heisenberg]

If Republicans win the trifecta (FL/OH/PA), NC might become a must-win for Democrats.

I'd inverse that statement.

Yeah, if Republicans win all three of the "trifecta" then they've probably already won NC and AZ. If Republicans win NC, AZ (and MO and IA) then Democrats need all three of FL, PA, and OH. After Grassley and McCain, I'd say Burr is the next strongest incumbent of the states I listed.

[tmthforu94]

If Republicans win the trifecta (FL/OH/PA), NC might become a must-win for Democrats.

I'd inverse that statement.

Yeah, if Republicans win all three of the "trifecta" then they've probably already won NC and AZ. If Republicans win NC, AZ (and MO and IA) then Democrats need all three of FL, PA, and OH. After Grassley and McCain, I'd say Burr is the next strongest incumbent of the states I listed.

Honestly, I think Toomey is in better shape than Burr. Burr has been in for 12 years and has been pretty invisible - has always had mediocre approval ratings and while I don't expect the race to change much, a 3 point lead over a mediocre opponent isn't good. Toomey has been a solid senator and has good favorability ratings - he hasn't trailed in a single poll so far and the last one had him by 9.

That being said, I've been following Phil's FB for the past few years, so I may be a bit biased/optimistic for Toomey.

[BuckeyeNut]

If Republicans win the trifecta (FL/OH/PA), NC might become a must-win for Democrats.

I'd inverse that statement.

Yeah, if Republicans win all three of the "trifecta" then they've probably already won NC and AZ. If Republicans win NC, AZ (and MO and IA) then Democrats need all three of FL, PA, and OH. After Grassley and McCain, I'd say Burr is the next strongest incumbent of the states I listed.

Well, yes. But also, if Democrats do win the "trifecta," Burr is going to be in for the fight of his life.

[Xing]

Looks like Burr might not overperform Trump that much. He's still definitely more likely to win than Toomey/Portman/Rubio, though. Still Lean R for now.

[heatcharger]

Pretty solid numbers for Ross considering she's unknown to 62% of voters. Once she gets her name ID up I think this race goes from Lean R to tossup.