If Trump loses in 2016...

[Senator-elect Spark]

Who would be the Republican nominee against President Hillary Clinton in 2020?

[Matty]

[Fuzzy Bear]

A lot would depend on how Trump lost.  If he barely lost in a squeaker, that would be one thing.  If he got blown out somewhere between Dukakis and Mondale, that would be another thing.

If Trump loses and Hillary is unpopular in 2020, NO Republican would want to be blamed for "blowing it".  They will clear the field to nominate the safest, blandest conservative candidate they can find.  (I'm looking at Marco Rubio if he gets back in the Senate race and is reelected as at least VP.)

[LLR]

Sasse, Ryan, Haley or Tim Scott.

[Kingpoleon]

A lot would depend on how Trump lost.  If he barely lost in a squeaker, that would be one thing.  If he got blown out somewhere between Dukakis and Mondale, that would be another thing.

I agree. If he won 220+ Electoral Votes and 47.5%+ of the popular vote, I think Scott Brown or Jon Huntsman would win the nomination. Maybe Gingrich or Christie.

If he gets below 45% of the PV and under 191 EVs, Kasich or Sandoval or Amash would be the nominee probably. If he underperformed McCain in EV, I would expect Sasse and Baker to be the front runners.

[hopper]

A lot would depend on how Trump lost.  If he barely lost in a squeaker, that would be one thing.  If he got blown out somewhere between Dukakis and Mondale, that would be another thing.

I agree. If he won 220+ Electoral Votes and 47.5%+ of the popular vote, I think Scott Brown or Jon Huntsman would win the nomination. Maybe Gingrich or Christie.

If he gets below 45% of the PV and under 191 EVs, Kasich or Sandoval or Amash would be the nominee probably. If he underperformed McCain in EV, I would expect Sasse and Baker to be the front runners.

I don't think Baker would get the nomination. A Republican from a Dem State? Nah. Amash? Too Libertarian.  Sandoval? He has had a lot of tax increases as Governor I have heard. That may hurt him in a presidential primary.

I don't think Republicans would be ready for a Kasich-type till 2024 since they will get sick of losing by then just like the Dems by 1992.

[Kingpoleon]

A lot would depend on how Trump lost.  If he barely lost in a squeaker, that would be one thing.  If he got blown out somewhere between Dukakis and Mondale, that would be another thing.

I agree. If he won 220+ Electoral Votes and 47.5%+ of the popular vote, I think Scott Brown or Jon Huntsman would win the nomination. Maybe Gingrich or Christie.

If he gets below 45% of the PV and under 191 EVs, Kasich or Sandoval or Amash would be the nominee probably. If he underperformed McCain in EV, I would expect Sasse and Baker to be the front runners.

I don't think Baker would get the nomination. A Republican from a Dem State? Nah. Amash? Too Libertarian.  Sandoval? He has had a lot of tax increases as Governor I have heard. That may hurt him in a presidential primary.

I don't think Republicans would be ready for a Kasich-type till 2024 since they will get sick of losing by then just like the Dems by 1992.

"A Republican from a Dem State": Mitt Romney and Donald Trump. Amash could win the same way Rand Paul could have. I think Sandoval and Kasich would be seen as pretty good after twelve years of Democrats.

[Heisenberg]

I think Cruz is the single most likely individual given the fairly robust runner up tradition and his well known desire to try again.

Demographics will be different, and I think the GOP will want to become more inclusive. I can see Kasich, Ryan, or Sasse getting the nomination, with Rubio as a good VP choice f he's reelected to the Senate.

[Ljube]

Hopefully Tim Scott.

[Mr. Morden]

As shown in the Tea Leaves thread, the folks who are making the most noise about a 2020 run are Cotton, Cruz, Rubio, Sasse, and Walker.  Ryan a bit less so, but he’d be in a strong position if he does run.  I’m guessing Paul runs as well, since I’m kind of assuming he’ll keep running for president until he dies.  Kasich, OTOH, I’m not convinced he’s interested in giving it another go.

So, in any case, if we were doing power rankings—who would have the best chance to win *if* he were to run—then I’d put Ryan at the top of the power rankings.  But since I’m not as convinced that he’s going to run as I am that Cotton and Cruz are running, I don’t know if he’s actually the most likely.  Not sure who is the most likely.  Maybe Cruz?

Another question: Suppose a national poll is conducted just six months from now, December 2016, following a Clinton victory in November: Who is leading in the race for the 2020 GOP nomination in that poll?  And what about polls of Iowa and New Hamphire?

[Sir Mohamed]

Ted Cruz. I’m sure. He came close this time and a Trump defeat would finally confirm his own theory, that Republicans only lose because not enough to the right. He will say “Look, we lost the last three elections because we didn’t nominate a true conservative”.