IA PPP Senate Grassley +7 (user search)
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  IA PPP Senate Grassley +7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA PPP Senate Grassley +7  (Read 2977 times)
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« on: June 16, 2016, 11:55:30 AM »

I really don't think he's beatable, but if we get a 2008 style wave, who knows? Moved out of Safe R out of an abundance of caution.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2016, 03:12:21 PM »

Open seat with a relatively moderate, populist Democrat (Campbell) favored to secure 1 spot in the runoff. John Edwards won by a pretty big margin with the same campaign strategy.

Does the likely Republican contender have his own baggage and last minute scandals too? I don't think it is fair to say that JBE won the race without significant help from Vitter's self-inflicted issues. Other LA Republicans won comfortably statewide in 2015, so the idea of a backlash against the GOP doesn't exactly hold up.

You're probably right, but I have LA-SEN as Likely R on a sort of "wait and see" thing. So does Larry Sabato. If you look at the other two 2015 statewide runoffs, The D in the Lt. Gov. Race had little funding, and Attorney General was R vs. R, even if there was a defacto Democrat candidate.
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