Open seat with a relatively moderate, populist Democrat (Campbell) favored to secure 1 spot in the runoff. John Edwards won by a pretty big margin with the same campaign strategy.
Does the likely Republican contender have his own baggage and last minute scandals too? I don't think it is fair to say that JBE won the race without significant help from Vitter's self-inflicted issues. Other LA Republicans won comfortably statewide in 2015, so the idea of a backlash against the GOP doesn't exactly hold up.
You're probably right, but I have LA-SEN as Likely R on a sort of "wait and see" thing. So does Larry Sabato. If you look at the other two 2015 statewide runoffs, The D in the Lt. Gov. Race had little funding, and Attorney General was R vs. R, even if there was a defacto Democrat candidate.