How is his lead bigger with likely voters than registered voters? If anything, I would expect the opposite.
Democrats are more excited to vote. 99% you can blame that on Trump.
That seems to be the case here, this time. Feingold supporters probably didn't turn out for him in 2010, but are excited to get him back it seems. Outside groups need to write this race off. This seat (and Illinois and New Hampshire as well) is gone.
I wouldn't write off Illinois just yet. And New Hampshire is most certainly NOT gone. Ayotte is tied with Hassan right now, while Duckworth and Feingold seem to have pretty decent leads. I'd expect Wisconsin and Illinois to go D this year long before New Hampshire.
I agree, I wouldn't write off Illinois (or Wisconsin) just yet, but I still think they are lean D and we'll likely see a Senator Duckworth and Feingold in November. NH, on the other hand, is a pure tossup, anyone's guess who will win that. Hassan and Ayotte are tied pretty much, and they are both popular. If I had to predict, I say Hassan wins narrowly because I expect Clinton to win the state and NH is slightly more democratic in presidential years, but it really could go either way.