How is his lead bigger with likely voters than registered voters? If anything, I would expect the opposite.
Democrats are more excited to vote. 99% you can blame that on Trump.
That seems to be the case here, this time. Feingold supporters probably didn't turn out for him in 2010, but are excited to get him back it seems. Outside groups need to write this race off. This seat (and Illinois and New Hampshire as well) is gone.
This is a ridiculous notion. At the end of the day, I don't see any reason why there would be a notable number of Trump/Feingold voters. Trump is going to try to win Wisconsin, and if he wins it, Johnson probably holds on. New Hampshire consistently polls within 1 or 2 percentage points - even if you can't get all the way to a victory, at least make dems think you can and keep them spending precious resources there. And nobody really knows what's going on in Illinois since it almost never gets polled.
Sure is a shame then that most polls, including this one, show Trump more than 10 points behind Clinton in Wisconsin.