So much for Trump's rust belt breakthrough.
There is a difference between the potentially competitive areas of the upper midwest (WI/MN/IA) and of the rust belt (PA/OH/MI). They are not the same region. They have different history and different politics, and a candidate can do well in the first group and poorly in the latter, or vice versa.
This. I've been to both, and worked politics (in a limited way) in both. VERY different.
(The cheese curds are much better in the upper midwest than the rust belt, for example)