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  UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play (search mode)
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Author Topic: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play  (Read 4083 times)
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Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

« on: June 13, 2016, 08:14:32 pm »
« edited: June 13, 2016, 08:18:29 pm by Virginia »

State fundamentals can change. West Virginia went for Carter in 1980 and Dukakis in 1988, It was hard for many of us to believe that the state would go for Dubya in 2000... but has become one of the most reliably R states in the US.  Now let me tell you how reliably Republican Vermont used to be.

On the other side, I was astonished to see Virginia give small lead after small lead to Barack Obama in 2008. No, the only former Confederate state to vote against Carter in 1976, a state that voted twice against Bill Clinton, and a state that had gone only once for a Republican nominee for President since 1948 (the Goldwater fiasco)... no... Virginia was not going Democratic in 2008. The fundamentals just weren't right.

Just wait for another poll of Kansas if you dislike the Zogby poll. "43" is the typical ceiling for a Democratic nominee in a Presidential election.    

Honestly, the signs for Virginia were there years beforehand. Neither age group in Virginia voted as heavily Republican as other southern states - Mostly 40% - 47%, with an average of maybe 44% or so. In 2000, Bush won 18-29yr olds comfortably. In 2004, Bush then lost 18-29yr olds by 10 points. That was a dramatic flip, and Obama's campaign clearly saw what was going on. Young voters are mostly the reason Obama won Virginia and they are the ones continuing to make Virginia Democratic as they age. Obama won 18-29yr olds by 60% and 61% in 2008, 2012, respectively. It's safe to say that the emerging voter base in VA has significantly different political choices than their parents. Combined with favorable population movement, it's a disaster for the state GOP.

Contrast to West Virginia, where Gore got blown out in 2000 among 18-29yr olds - 57 - 37 Bush, and in 2004, it was closer but almost all other age groups went hard against Democrats.

I don't think Utah has any of these characteristics - A Clinton win here, or a bare Trump win would be something of a fluke - A victim of circumstances. Not to say it couldn't set the state on a new course down the line, though. Impossible to say right now. I just wanted to add that these trends are very rarely spontaneous.
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