UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
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  UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
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Author Topic: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play  (Read 5897 times)
JRP1994
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« Reply #25 on: June 12, 2016, 07:23:47 AM »

> In before IceSpear proclaims it a junk poll because neither candidate is at or above 45%.
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Wells
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« Reply #26 on: June 12, 2016, 08:36:39 AM »

I think Romney should attack Trump one more time.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #27 on: June 12, 2016, 09:03:25 AM »

This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

Because it became clear pretty quickly that this state wasn't gonna be Trump country. I think if Johnson can siphon off Trump votes, Hillary's got a chance.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #28 on: June 12, 2016, 10:42:01 AM »

This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

At this point I would like to see some polls of Nebraska and South Dakota -- and discover whether the Zogby poll in Kansas is valid. National polls are swinging wildly.
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Ljube
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« Reply #29 on: June 12, 2016, 11:01:27 AM »

This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

At this point I would like to see some polls of Nebraska and South Dakota -- and discover whether the Zogby poll in Kansas is valid. National polls are swinging wildly.

The Zogby poll in Kansas is not valid.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #30 on: June 12, 2016, 11:14:57 AM »

This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

At this point I would like to see some polls of Nebraska and South Dakota -- and discover whether the Zogby poll in Kansas is valid. National polls are swinging wildly.

The Zogby poll in Kansas is not valid.

There will be more polls of Kansas -- but long enough from now that the next poll will not need be averaged against the Zogby poll.

If you don't like the poll for some reason other than the poll being taken by a political party, pressure group, lobbying firm, union, or ethnic-advocacy group or that the pollster is a sham, then you will need to live with such polls as are available.

...Unlike some other poll-aggregators I do not offer running averages. A candidate can make a fool of himself; scandals can emerge.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #31 on: June 12, 2016, 11:32:55 AM »

This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

At this point I would like to see some polls of Nebraska and South Dakota -- and discover whether the Zogby poll in Kansas is valid. National polls are swinging wildly.

The Zogby poll in Kansas is not valid.

There will be more polls of Kansas -- but long enough from now that the next poll will not need be averaged against the Zogby poll.

If you don't like the poll for some reason other than the poll being taken by a political party, pressure group, lobbying firm, union, or ethnic-advocacy group or that the pollster is a sham, then you will need to live with such polls as are available.

...Unlike some other poll-aggregators I do not offer running averages. A candidate can make a fool of himself; scandals can emerge.

For Zogby polls, you would probably get more accurate polls if you flipped the leading margin to the other candidate, and then double it.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #32 on: June 12, 2016, 11:51:00 AM »

New Poll: Utah President by Survey USA on 2016-06-08

Summary: D: 35%, R: 35%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #33 on: June 12, 2016, 01:17:48 PM »

I could see Johnson getting up to 10 percent in Utah even if he only gets 2 or 3 percent nationwide.
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dax00
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« Reply #34 on: June 12, 2016, 01:27:16 PM »

I, for one, am taking this poll seriously. Trump should make it a point at the RNC to lambaste and completely humiliate Mitt Romney in any way possible.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #35 on: June 12, 2016, 01:46:10 PM »

I, for one, am taking this poll seriously. Trump should make it a point at the RNC to lambaste and completely humiliate Mitt Romney in any way possible.

I don't think that would help. I think most Utahns are Mormons/Romney lovers first and Republicans second. If anything it could drive a wedge between the GOP and the Mormons that lasts beyond a single election cycle.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #36 on: June 12, 2016, 01:47:07 PM »

> In before IceSpear proclaims it a junk poll because neither candidate is at or above 45%.

It at least makes sense in Utah, due to the unique dynamics in the state.
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Ljube
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« Reply #37 on: June 12, 2016, 02:23:41 PM »

This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

At this point I would like to see some polls of Nebraska and South Dakota -- and discover whether the Zogby poll in Kansas is valid. National polls are swinging wildly.

The Zogby poll in Kansas is not valid.

There will be more polls of Kansas -- but long enough from now that the next poll will not need be averaged against the Zogby poll.

If you don't like the poll for some reason other than the poll being taken by a political party, pressure group, lobbying firm, union, or ethnic-advocacy group or that the pollster is a sham, then you will need to live with such polls as are available.

...Unlike some other poll-aggregators I do not offer running averages. A candidate can make a fool of himself; scandals can emerge.

I'd like to remind you of Kansas polls in 2014. The average of polls was off by 12 points or so.

I would not trust any Kansas poll which is not in line with the state fundamentals.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #38 on: June 12, 2016, 02:31:21 PM »

Unless Romney himself runs independently, there's just no way that Clinton wins Utah. It's not happening folks.
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dspNY
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« Reply #39 on: June 12, 2016, 02:55:49 PM »

Unless Romney himself runs independently, there's just no way that Clinton wins Utah. It's not happening folks.

Romney would actually win Utah in that scenario
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IceSpear
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« Reply #40 on: June 12, 2016, 02:56:49 PM »

Unless Romney himself runs independently, there's just no way that Clinton wins Utah. It's not happening folks.

Romney would actually win Utah in that scenario

And probably comfortably, with Trump getting a distant 3rd. I could see something like:

Romney 50
Clinton 30
Trump 20
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #41 on: June 12, 2016, 03:00:01 PM »

Romney should just run on the ballot in Utah. If the election is super close, Utah's 6 EVs could potentially keep Trump and Clinton from reaching 270 and send this to the House.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #42 on: June 12, 2016, 11:29:47 PM »

This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

At this point I would like to see some polls of Nebraska and South Dakota -- and discover whether the Zogby poll in Kansas is valid. National polls are swinging wildly.

The Zogby poll in Kansas is not valid.

There will be more polls of Kansas -- but long enough from now that the next poll will not need be averaged against the Zogby poll.

If you don't like the poll for some reason other than the poll being taken by a political party, pressure group, lobbying firm, union, or ethnic-advocacy group or that the pollster is a sham, then you will need to live with such polls as are available.

...Unlike some other poll-aggregators I do not offer running averages. A candidate can make a fool of himself; scandals can emerge.

I'd like to remind you of Kansas polls in 2014. The average of polls was off by 12 points or so.

I would not trust any Kansas poll which is not in line with the state fundamentals.

State fundamentals can change. West Virginia went for Carter in 1980 and Dukakis in 1988, It was hard for many of us to believe that the state would go for Dubya in 2000... but has become one of the most reliably R states in the US.  Now let me tell you how reliably Republican Vermont used to be.

On the other side, I was astonished to see Virginia give small lead after small lead to Barack Obama in 2008. No, the only former Confederate state to vote against Carter in 1976, a state that voted twice against Bill Clinton, and a state that had gone only once for a Republican nominee for President since 1948 (the Goldwater fiasco)... no... Virginia was not going Democratic in 2008. The fundamentals just weren't right.

Just wait for another poll of Kansas if you dislike the Zogby poll. "43" is the typical ceiling for a Democratic nominee in a Presidential election.   
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Zioneer
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« Reply #43 on: June 12, 2016, 11:56:38 PM »

This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

Mainly because the results are wildly out of the ordinary for Utah, and they want to confirm or deny this surprising result. When Utah of all places polls like a swing state, you want to make sure the results are legitimate.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #44 on: June 13, 2016, 09:08:58 AM »

I do find it odd that she is polling 10 points better than Obama with a 20% approval rating.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #45 on: June 13, 2016, 11:51:55 AM »

This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

When one of the deepest "red" states all the sudden looks competitive it should warrant a good number of polls from other sources to confirm it. And if it is indeed a battleground state this year then it would make sense to track it at least as much as the other fools gold states like PA and AZ.
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15 Down, 35 To Go
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« Reply #46 on: June 13, 2016, 08:11:52 PM »

Romney should just run on the ballot in Utah. If the election is super close, Utah's 6 EVs could potentially keep Trump and Clinton from reaching 270 and send this to the House.

That's been a pet idea of mine for a while
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Virginiá
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« Reply #47 on: June 13, 2016, 08:14:32 PM »
« Edited: June 13, 2016, 08:18:29 PM by Virginia »

State fundamentals can change. West Virginia went for Carter in 1980 and Dukakis in 1988, It was hard for many of us to believe that the state would go for Dubya in 2000... but has become one of the most reliably R states in the US.  Now let me tell you how reliably Republican Vermont used to be.

On the other side, I was astonished to see Virginia give small lead after small lead to Barack Obama in 2008. No, the only former Confederate state to vote against Carter in 1976, a state that voted twice against Bill Clinton, and a state that had gone only once for a Republican nominee for President since 1948 (the Goldwater fiasco)... no... Virginia was not going Democratic in 2008. The fundamentals just weren't right.

Just wait for another poll of Kansas if you dislike the Zogby poll. "43" is the typical ceiling for a Democratic nominee in a Presidential election.    

Honestly, the signs for Virginia were there years beforehand. Neither age group in Virginia voted as heavily Republican as other southern states - Mostly 40% - 47%, with an average of maybe 44% or so. In 2000, Bush won 18-29yr olds comfortably. In 2004, Bush then lost 18-29yr olds by 10 points. That was a dramatic flip, and Obama's campaign clearly saw what was going on. Young voters are mostly the reason Obama won Virginia and they are the ones continuing to make Virginia Democratic as they age. Obama won 18-29yr olds by 60% and 61% in 2008, 2012, respectively. It's safe to say that the emerging voter base in VA has significantly different political choices than their parents. Combined with favorable population movement, it's a disaster for the state GOP.

Contrast to West Virginia, where Gore got blown out in 2000 among 18-29yr olds - 57 - 37 Bush, and in 2004, it was closer but almost all other age groups went hard against Democrats.

I don't think Utah has any of these characteristics - A Clinton win here, or a bare Trump win would be something of a fluke - A victim of circumstances. Not to say it couldn't set the state on a new course down the line, though. Impossible to say right now. I just wanted to add that these trends are very rarely spontaneous.
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #48 on: June 14, 2016, 01:32:01 AM »

I, for one, am taking this poll seriously. Trump should make it a point at the RNC to lambaste and completely humiliate Mitt Romney in any way possible.

Lmao and you think that'll increase his numbers in Utah of all places?! By all means, please encourage him to do so. Maybe Gary Johnson will finish second in Utah if Trumpet continues to bash and ridicule their favorite son Willard. 
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #49 on: June 14, 2016, 09:51:13 AM »

Crosstabs up.

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2016/06/14/could-bright-red-utah-go-blue-for-first-time-in-52-years-clinton-starts-off-tied-with-trump/
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fd3a327c-92e3-437a-867c-b90ec9179363

Trump leads in Congressional District #1 39-32, trails in Congressional District #3 31-35, and runs effectively even with Clinton in Congressional District #2 36-36 and #4 34-36.

Trump leads by 19 points among Mormon voters, Clinton leads by 15 points among Non-Mormon voters, and by 38 points among voters who are not a member of an organized religion.

Trump leads by 12 among voters with a high school education. Clinton leads by 9 among voters with a 4-year college degree. Trump leads by 5 among men; Clinton leads by 5 among women.

Also amazing is that on landlines, Clinton leads 38-35, while Trump leads the online polling 36-19.
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