Strategic Vision poll - Florida Gov./Sen., many other things

[Sam Spade]

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/florida_poll_0615.htm

This is a long poll.  Fairly large sample size though.  Of key interest of course, are the Governor and Senate questions, specifically questions 18-29 for Governor and 30-39 for Senator.
Below are the poll results based on telephone interviews with 1200 registered voters in Florida, aged 18+, and conducted June 9 - 13, 2005. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

1. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's overall job performance?
Approve 48%
Disapprove 40%
Undecided 12%

2. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the economy?
Approve 47%
Disapprove 42%
Undecided 11%

3. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of Iraq?
Approve 52%
Disapprove 37%
Undecided 11%

4. Do you support or oppose President Bush's Social Security reform?
Support 42%
Oppose 42%
Undecided 16%

5. Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jeb Bush's job performance?
Approve 55%
Disapprove 38%
Undecided 7%

6. Would you like to see Governor Jeb Bush run for President in 2008?
Yes 40%
No 46%
Undecided 14%

7. Would you like to see Governor Jeb Bush as a Vice Presidential Candidate in 2008?
Yes 45%
No 38%
Undecided 17%

8. Who is your choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008? (Jeb Bush included. Republicans only)
Rudy Guliani 24%
Jeb Bush 22%
John McCain 15%
Newt Gingrich 8%
Bill Frist 6%
George Allen 4%
Mitt Romney 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Bill Owens 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 1%
Undecided 16%

9. If Jeb Bush were not to run for President in 2008, who would you support for the Republican nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)
Rudy Guliani 27%
John McCain 18%
Newt Gingrich 8%
Bill Frist 7%
George Allen 5%
Mitt Romney 1%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Bill Owens 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Undecided 30%

10. Who is your first choice for the Democratic nomination in 2008? (Democrats only)
Hillary Clinton 32%
Al Gore 18%
John Kerry 15%
John Edwards 5%
Wesley Clark 5%
Joseph Biden 3%
Bill Richardson 1%
Ed Rendell 1%
Tom Vilsak 1%
Evan Bayh 1%
Barbara Boxer 1%
Undecided 17%

11. Do you approve or disapprove of Lt. Governor Toni Jennings' job performance?
Approve 50%
Disapprove 22%
Undecided 28%

12. Do you approve or disapprove of Attorney General Charlie Crist's job performance?
Approve 55%
Disapprove 36%
Undecided 9%

13. Do you approve or disapprove of Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher's job performance?
Approve 55%
Disapprove 32%
Undecided 13%

14. Do you approve or disapprove of Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Bronson's job performance?
Approve 48%
Disapprove 18%
Undecided 34%

15. Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill Nelson's job performance?
Approve 46%
Disapprove 40%
Undecided 14%

16. Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mel Martinez's job performance?
Approve 48%
Disapprove 39%
Undecided 13%

17. Do you approve or disapprove of the Florida Legislature's performance this year?
Approve 45%
Disapprove 40%
Undecided 15%

18. Who is your first choice for the Republican nomination for Governor in 2006? (Republicans only)
Charlie Crist 37%
Tom Gallagher 34%
Toni Jennings 12%
Undecided 17%

19. Who is your first choice for the Republican nomination for Governor in 2006? (Republicans only; Jennings omitted)
Charlie Crist 40%
Tom Gallagher 38%
Undecided 22%

20. Who is your first choice for the Democratic nomination for Governor in 2006? (Democrats only)
Jim Davis 23%
Scott Maddox 20%
Rod Smith 14%
Undecided 43%

21. If the election for Governor were between Charlie Crist, the Republican and Jim Davis, the Democrat, whom would you support?
Charlie Crist 46%
Jim Davis 32%
Undecided 22%

22. If the election for Governor were between Tom Gallagher, the Republican and Jim Davis, the Democrat, whom would you support?
Tom Gallagher 47%
Jim Davis 30%
Undecided 23%

23. If the election for Governor were between Toni Jennings, the Republican and Jim Davis, the Democrat, whom would you support?
Toni Jennings 38%
Jim Davis 27%
Undecided 35%

24. If the election for Governor were between Charlie Crist, the Republican and Scott Maddox, the Democrat, whom would you support?
Charlie Crist 47%
Scott Maddox 34%
Undecided 19%

25. If the election for Governor were between Tom Gallagher, the Republican and Scott Maddox, the Democrat, whom would you support?
Tom Gallagher 48%
Scott Maddox 32%
Undecided 20%

26. If the election for Governor were between Toni Jennings, the Republican and Scott Maddox, the Democrat, whom would you support?
Toni Jennings 38%
Scott Maddox 30%
Undecided 32%

27. If the election for Governor were between Charlie Crist, the Republican and Rod Smith, the Democrat, whom would you support?
Charlie Crist 46%
Rod Smith 28%
Undecided 26%

28. If the election for Governor were between Tom Gallagher, the Republican and Rod Smith, the Democrat, whom would you support?
Tom Gallagher 48%
Rod Smith 26%
Undecided 26%

29. If the election for Governor were between Toni Jennings, the Republican and Rod Smith, the Democrat, whom would you support?
Toni Jennings 39%
Rod Smith 27%
Undecided 34%

30. Who would you support for the Republican nomination for United States Senator in 2006? (Republicans only)
Katherine Harris 47%
Charlie Crist 15%
Tom Gallagher 11%
Toni Jennings 7%
Mark Foley 4%
David Weldon 2%
Daniel Webster 1%
Undecided 13%

31. Who would you support for the Republican nomination for United States Senator in 2006? (Republicans only; Crist and Gallagher omitted; Franks included)
Katherine Harris 53%
Tommy Franks 18%
Toni Jennings 9%
Mark Foley 6%
David Weldon 4%
Daniel Webster 2%
Undecided 8%

32. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Katherine Harris, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 48%
Katherine Harris 42%
Undecided 10%

33. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Charlie Crist, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 45%
Charlie Crist 47%
Undecided 8%

34. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Tom Gallagher, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 44%
Tom Gallagher 48%
Undecided 8%

35. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Toni Jennings, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 46%
Toni Jennings 38%
Undecided 16%

36. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Mark Foley, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 47%
Mark Foley 40%
Undecided 13%

37. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or David Weldon, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 45%
David Weldon 39%
Undecided 16%

38. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Daniel Webster, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 47%
Daniel Webster 35%
Undecided 18%

39. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Tommy Franks, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 44%
Tommy Franks 42%
Undecided 14%

40. Do you think Florida is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
Right 53%
Wrong 43%
Undecided 4%

41. Would you favor a state constitutional ban on same-sex marriages?
Yes 58%
No 32%
Undecided 10%

[Jake]

These poll numbers look excellent for Republicans, to have all their possible Senatorial candidates within 6 or so points and have them leading the Gubernatorial race is big, even early.

[Alcon]

Harris's numbers continue to be so-so. Governorship looks good for the GOP.

Remember that Strategic Vision is, while an excellent pollster, still GOP-affiliated and has a minor GOP bias.

Bush's approval ratings are higher than I would have expected.

[Sam Spade]

Harris's numbers continue to be so-so.

Remember that Strategic Vision is, while an excellent pollster, still GOP-affiliated and has a minor GOP bias.

Bush's approval ratings are higher than I would have expected.

I was unsure whether they were still technically GOP-affliated or not, Alcon. 

I know that in the past (pre-2004) they were, clearly. 

But during 2004, they kept acting as if they were an independent firm.  I also know they did very well in Florida in 2004, whereas most pollsters did terribly (as they always do)

Still, as always, simply another poll on the fire.  And I'm still waiting for a Mason-Dixon. 

[Alcon]

I'm always wary of Strategic Vision because it involves a good deal of trust...there is no way to tell when they've gone back to being a partisan polling firm or a quasi-independent, but still affiliated polling firm. So if I see numbers that seem strange, I take them with a grain of salt. Yet every time so far SV has surprised me and I've been unable to find any (significant) bias. It's just that I worry about them regressing suddenly and it only becoming apparent when it's too late.

[AuH2O]

Gallagher should go over to the Senate race.

[Jake]

He won't while he is neck and neck with Crist. Jennings should definitely consider running for Senate as it should become apparent soon that she is running a losing race against Crist and Gallagher.

[The Vorlon]

Still, as always, simply another poll on the fire.  And I'm still waiting for a Mason-Dixon. 

Smart man....

And that goes double in Florida...

[A18]

Jeb Bush's numbers look a little too good. We had a poll on him about a month ago, and he was somewhere around the mid-40s. Now he's in the mid-50s. It sounds like a lot of movement for just a month's time, but it may be that the Schiavo thing finally wore off.

I also don't think the Senate numbers look good for Republicans -- that is, the one that matters, against Harris, who will probably get the GOP nomination.

Bill Nelson 48%
Katherine Harris 42%
Undecided 10%

She has to win over 80% of the undecideds just to tie it up, assuming there are no other candidates in the race. Of course, there's a margin of error issue here, and the campaign hasn't really begun, but most polls I've seen show Nelson getting about the same percentage of the vote, so if I was placing any bets, my money would be on Bill Nelson holding this seat for the Democrats.

Especially since this is supposed to be a GOP-leaning poll. Gubernatorial numbers look good, though. I imagine the state government will remain in GOP hands, if these numbers hold up.

[Moooooo]

Nelson's numbers look good to me.

[No more McShame]

Nelson's numbers look good to me.

I wouldn't say they look good, but Philip is probably right about him holding up against the presumptive Republican nominee.