Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Did Clinton hold on to Calaveras county? it would really ruin the map

Calaveras has been in "CCC" status for over a week. She's got it.

[Flake]

Your maps would look better if you reduce the colour scheme to various shades of 2 colours like the maps on Atlas.
ie.

But, but, but.... how do I show the margins...

My thought is the story is less about which candidate wins which county, but more about *who wins what by how much*

So I get it that the graphics are a bit confusing, hard to read, and not standard Atlas colors, but still how to tell a story visually with only two paint colors???

So need to drop to two colors and two shades of each and lose tons of detail in the process? There should be at least three shades/tones to at least indicate significant movement/margins?

Totally agreed my maps tend to be a bit of an eyesore, and is my first election posting county maps (Red and Green tend to be preferred in two candidate elections), so will try to work within a more conventional mapping scenario, for ease of data communication and make for a quick easy overview.

btw: Thanks for the tip and will need to play around a little more with Paint.Net to try to make it easier to read for everyone, and still provide data in a visual format, instead of trying to reinvent the wheel and make things confusing for everyone trying to decipher my own coding.

[dspNY]

I believe all the presidential results have to be in today so whatever the counties in California report is the final presidential tally before the SoS certifies the results on Friday

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It also says that the counties have 30 days after the election to count their results which means Thursday is the very last day to count anything...

http://www.sos.ca.gov/administration/news-releases-and-advisories/2016-news-releases-and-advisories/vote-count-update/

[Xing]

The margin's 7.3% now. Looks like my prediction of a 5-point win for Hillary, which looked awful a month ago, didn't end up being that bad.

There are still some counties that haven't finished reporting (what's holding up Sonoma!?) but it's looking like it'll be almost exactly 53-46.

[Ebsy]

The final margin of victory for Clinton indicates that the California race wasn't a toss up, and all the polls showing a close race were badly off the mark, way outside the margin of error. This is why we use a polling average people!

[ElectionsGuy]

The final margin of victory for Clinton indicates that the California race wasn't a toss up, and all the polls showing a close race were badly off the mark, way outside the margin of error. This is why we use a polling average people!

It ended up a 7 point race, most polls showed Clinton leading by 2 or 3. That's not that bad considering other primary polls.

[Eraserhead]

Well, it's good to see Sanders winning Montana by more than Clintion won California at least. lol.

I have note that the usually decent SUSA bombed out pretty badly here, they had the race at Clinton +18 in their final poll.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Clinton 53.2% - 2,730,787
Sanders 45.9% - 2,357,175

There appears to be more votes to count; the unprocessed ballots report says 70,455 votes left; and the reporting status page lists several counties as still in "CCU" status, and one county is still in "FENU" status.

The website contradicts itself on whether an earlier deadline exists for the presidency than exists for other offices. No distinction is made here:

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http://vote.sos.ca.gov/

[IceSpear]

So, some nuggets...

- Bernie cracks 70% in Humboldt
- Hillary keeps Placer, making the map ugly
- LA is within single digits
- Hillary wins CA-28 (Adam Schiff's district) by 67 votes (out of ~130k cast)
- Bernie flips CA-50 (Duncan Hunter's district)

Also, I think there was a glitch or something in Tulare County. Around 10k Hillary votes suddenly vanished, with all the other totals remaining unchanged. Maybe Reddit hacked the system.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I have note that the usually decent SUSA bombed out pretty badly here, they had the race at Clinton +18 in their final poll.

Their last poll was 3 weeks before the election, just as Sanders was starting to focus on the state.
So it's rather difficult to tell if they were accurate or not.

Also, I think there was a glitch or something in Tulare County. Around 10k Hillary votes suddenly vanished, with all the other totals remaining unchanged. Maybe Reddit hacked the system.

I saw that too. The county went from a double digit Clinton lead to a 40+ Sanders lead.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Clinton - 2,724,903 - 53.1%
Sanders - 2,362,480 - 46.0%

Lake County has finally come in. I'm not sure whether Tulare is a glitch or not; but I'll assume it's real until corrected. 8 counties are still listed as "CCU" instead of "CCC".

[Landslide Lyndon]

OK, Tulare is back to normal (Clinton won it 54/44).

[dspNY]

Sonoma County flips from Clinton to Sanders as the very last votes are being finally counted. Sanders wins it with 52% of the vote.

Only two counties are not in CCC status:

San Mateo (900 ballots left)
Yolo

However there are still around 8K ballots in Lake County that have not been processed. The final statewide result looks to be a 7 point Clinton win

53.1% Clinton
46.0% Sanders

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Sonoma County flips from Clinton to Sanders as the very last votes are being finally counted. Sanders wins it with 52% of the vote.

Only two counties are not in CCC status:

San Mateo (900 ballots left)
Yolo

However there are still around 8K ballots in Lake County that have not been processed. The final statewide result looks to be a 7 point Clinton win

53.1% Clinton
46.0% Sanders

The Unprocessed report is probably lying about Lake. It says "Last Update 6/20", but it actually updated its vote count last night; before then it was still in "FENU" status. Or maybe the number listed for Lake County is actually for Yolo County.

[NOVA Green]

Sonoma County flips from Clinton to Sanders as the very last votes are being finally counted. Sanders wins it with 52% of the vote.

Only two counties are not in CCC status:

San Mateo (900 ballots left)
Yolo

However there are still around 8K ballots in Lake County that have not been processed. The final statewide result looks to be a 7 point Clinton win

53.1% Clinton
46.0% Sanders

The Unprocessed report is probably lying about Lake. It says "Last Update 6/20", but it actually updated its vote count last night; before then it was still in "FENU" status. Or maybe the number listed for Lake County is actually for Yolo County.

Pretty sure this is over, and the Lake County results are right, considering that the "unprocessed report" has been the least accurate thus far for those of us been following various state and county reports on a daily basis....

Like I said right before the Holiday it looks like you might be exactly right on the money on a (46.0-53.0% Hillary) win to within a fraction of a percentage, when you were simply rounding your prediction a few weeks back....

Now if unprocessed ballot reports were right and we didn't lose 40k Provisionals in LA County since the last update, this might be closer to my prediction of slightly under 7.0% margin that I made off of a major dump from LA county .

[NOVA Green]

If nobody else will, I will officially give you accolades for your extremely accurate prediction from 6/21 and then 6/24.

With over a Million total votes outstanding you called it, even more accurately than you likely expected.

Congrats!!!!

I think things will round to 53-46 Clinton at the end.

Count updated to:

Clinton 53.9% - 2,632,238
Sanders 45.2% - 2,203,663

Standing by my prediction of a 53-46 final margin.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Numbers are in - all counties are in CCC status and the unprocessed report says 0 ballots left.

Clinton 53.1% - 2,745,293
Sanders 46.0% - 2,381,714

[dspNY]

Benchmark gets to boast again. They said Clinton 54-46 for a couple of weeks before the California primary

[NOVA Green]

Benchmark gets to boast again. They said Clinton 54-46 for a couple of weeks before the California primary

Benchmark is total crap...

They throw a few darts at a dartboard and occasionally hit a "20" on their demographic models and then claim they are brilliant...

Sigh...

I pity the poor sods that sent them $20 for their forum rebuild, in order to claim that they were right in a handful of Democratic primaries, despite the huge prediction collapse in many other states.

I could easily pull something similar together off of census info and then mix that with PVI and claim to be the "New 538" and offer a subscription service for the GE, to make a few bucks to pay the rent...

[Ebsy]

Benchmark gets to boast again. They said Clinton 54-46 for a couple of weeks before the California primary

Benchmark is total crap...

They throw a few darts at a dartboard and occasionally hit a "20" on their demographic models and then claim they are brilliant...

Sigh...

I pity the poor sods that sent them $20 for their forum rebuild, in order to claim that they were right in a handful of Democratic primaries, despite the huge prediction collapse in many other states.

I could easily pull something similar together off of census info and then mix that with PVI and claim to be the "New 538" and offer a subscription service for the GE, to make a few bucks to pay the rent...

Their model was consistently good on a statewide level but terrible on the countywide level.

[NOVA Green]

Benchmark gets to boast again. They said Clinton 54-46 for a couple of weeks before the California primary

Benchmark is total crap...

They throw a few darts at a dartboard and occasionally hit a "20" on their demographic models and then claim they are brilliant...

Sigh...

I pity the poor sods that sent them $20 for their forum rebuild, in order to claim that they were right in a handful of Democratic primaries, despite the huge prediction collapse in many other states.

I could easily pull something similar together off of census info and then mix that with PVI and claim to be the "New 538" and offer a subscription service for the GE, to make a few bucks to pay the rent...

Their model was consistently good on a statewide level but terrible on the countywide level.

Ok... some truth there. But KY and IN models don't outweigh their epic fails in OR and NM.

Used to be a big fan of theirs and then later in the primary season their demographic based modelling started to get worse and worse...

Reality is that they got lucky on Cali, and despite the flaws in their modelling, it ended up working out miraculously and now they are the "New 538ers", and the previously extremely flawed predictions are now long since forgotten by the MsMs, who now sent large checks so that they can rebuild their website for the GE.

Maybe I'm wrong, but it seemed like many of us on this board actually had a better handle on Cali election results than the wanna be "538ers".

[Eraserhead]

So that's definitely everything?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So that's definitely everything?

Small corrections are always possible; we don't get the certified results until next week. But other than that, it's finally done.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Certified Results: http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/upcoming-elections/june-7-2016-presidential-primary-election/statement-vote/