Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[NOVA Green]

So when about 2 million ballots were left, she was ahead by 11.1%. Now that about 1.3 million ballots are left, she's ahead by 10.5%. If you make the assumption things continue in that pattern, she'd win by about 9.3%. However, provisionals throw a wrench in that, since a) we have no clue how many will be deemed invalid b) they should be much more Bernie friendly than the mail ins. There are about 600k mail ins left and 700k provisionals. This could be a squeaker to see whether or not she beats her 2008 margin (+8.31%). Being within single digits looks close to certain at this point.

Well spoken, and appears to  be objectively accurate

[Eraserhead]

Lots of sore winners in this thread, I see.

[Eraserhead]

So when about 2 million ballots were left, she was ahead by 11.1%. Now that about 1.3 million ballots are left, she's ahead by 10.5%. If you make the assumption things continue in that pattern, she'd win by about 9.3%. However, provisionals throw a wrench in that, since a) we have no clue how many will be deemed invalid b) they should be much more Bernie friendly than the mail ins. There are about 600k mail ins left and 700k provisionals. This could be a squeaker to see whether or not she beats her 2008 margin (+8.31%). Being within single digits looks close to certain at this point.

Yeah, I'm most interested in seeing whether he does better than Obama or not at this point. I wouldn't bet on it but it's a possibility.

[Fusionmunster]

Lots of sore winners in this thread, I see.

Jfern seems to bring out the worst in a lot of users here it seems.

[ag]

Lots of sore winners in this thread, I see.

Jfern seems to bring out the worst in a lot of users here it seems.

I have been restraining myself in this case

[Eraserhead]

Lots of sore winners in this thread, I see.

Jfern seems to bring out the worst in a lot of users here it seems.

Understandable but nothing he did in these last few pages really warranted that response. I definitely find it fascinating that Bernie managed to win any kind of district with those demographics.

[Xing]

It's 54.6-44.5 now, so it looks almost certain that it'll end up in the single digits, unless these later ballots start favoring Clinton by a double digit margin.

[JerryArkansas]

Looking at Congressional district results, Bernie is probably going to flip a few districts, however, in an interesting case, the 2nd looks like it might flip from Bernie to Clinton.  He is only ahead by about 300 votes, and with each count, it gets tighter in margin.

[IceSpear]

Looking at Congressional district results, Bernie is probably going to flip a few districts, however, in an interesting case, the 2nd looks like it might flip from Bernie to Clinton.  He is only ahead by about 300 votes, and with each count, it gets tighter in margin.

It's probably just the pro Hillary part of the district (Marin) coming in first. Apparently, Humboldt (68-31 Bernie) and Mendocino (63-36 Bernie) have not updated since election night. Sonoma (51-48 Hillary) hasn't updated since election night either, and will probably flip when it does.

[Eraserhead]

Current margin in Montana is 7.37%:

Sanders 51.54%
Clinton 44.17%
No Preference 4.29%

[NOVA Green]

Clinton finishes at 55.8% in CA.

Nah, it'll probably settle in around a 10 point margin.

So NBC is estimating there's 31% of the vote remaining, which if it splits 50-50 would be a 10 point margin, and if it splits 55-45 Bernie would be more like a 7.5% margin.

Looking at how Hillary did with well off people, I think the late mail in ballot will be more 50-50 than 55-45 Bernie. It might even be a slight Hillary win. The election day votes must all be counted by this point. That is likely more favorable to Bernie than mail in ballots, even if it is the last minute ones.

So it looks like you pretty much nailed this one and likely to the percentage!....

Of the 1,107,836 ballots counted since election day (49.1-50.9 Hillary) at this point with a 19.5k Hillary lead.

The Cal SoS website lists a total of ~490k Total Late Vote-by-Mail ballots (All parties) remaining to be counted, but that number is significantly lower, because not all county updated are included in the "Unprocessed Ballots Report".

There ~160k total Late Vote-by-Mail ballots from counties that have not provided any updates since Election Day that went (48.2-51.8 Hillary) on early VbM and Election Day (Humboldt, Lake, Madera, Mendocino, Placer, Plumas, San Joaquin, Sonoma, and Yolo). I think it is a relatively safe assumption that late VbMs will break heavily Bernie in these counties.

There are also approximately 85k total Late Vote-by-Mail ballots in counties remaining that have only partially completed their counting.:

Los Angeles County (25k)- Bernie will likely win the lions share of this last batch... Last dump of ~50k Dem ballots a few days ago was (53.5-46.5% Bernie).

Contra Costa County (20k)- Not sure who will win the final batch, but last dump was (45.4-54.6 Hillary)

Monetery County (11.6k)- Not sure who will win the final batch, but last dump was (45.1-54.9 Hillary).

Napa County (14k)- This should be a decent Hillary win on oustandings.

San Diego (10k?)- Honestly not sure if there are even that many ballots out, but whatever is left will break heavily Bernie (Last dump was 55-45 Bernie).

Nevada County (7k)- Was a 60% Bernie county on ED.

Other than that, there are only a small handful of counties that haven't completely finished counting their late VbMs (Stanislaus, San Benito, Tulare, and San Bernadino) where we'll see some additional updates.

So looking at what's outstanding for late VbMs, I think Bernie could likely narrowly win that vote but either way it will probably be right around 50-50% rather than a 49/51 or 51/49 win on either side.

Want to take any guesses on how the provisional vote will break down for the next leg of the race?

[NOVA Green]

So Cali is now overwhelmingly done counting Same Day/ Early Vote-by-Mail (VbM) and Late VbM ballots ( <180k left from a handful of North Coast/Vineyard counties and a last dump from LA and a few trickles from elsewhere) time to look at the Provisional ballots combined with County trending to guess what the final margins might look like.

Here is a map of all post Election morning ballots to date (1.14 Mil) so basically all late VbMs.

Blue- Bernie
Red- Hillary



My theory is that provisional ballots will swing more heavily Bernie than Late VbMs by 20+%.

NOTE: These are total provisional votes and not just Democratic Party ballots.

About 65% of total provisional ballots are from SoCal (LA County, Riverside, San Bernardino, OC, Ventura and San Diego). There were 550k Dem Late Vote-by-Mails counted that went (49-51 Hillary).

Breakdown (60% LA/Ventura/20% SD County/20% Inland Empire/10% OC.)

There are 440k Provisional ballots in Socal only 55% are valid Democrat Party ballots and they break 60-40 Bernie, that would be a 100k net Bernie vote gain.

Bay Area Region

Only 100k Provisionals from the Bay Area (~15%), make an assumption that maybe 70% are Dem ballots and that they break 60-40 Bernie for a plus 15k net vote gain.

Central Valley

Only 50k Provisionals, and based upon late VbMs, let's assume is only 55% Dem Valid and breaks 50-50 since (Kern, Frenso, San Joaquin were only a 43-57 Hillary win on late votes). Regardless don't see there being a major net gain for Provisional Votes in these regions.

Sacramento Area

One of Hillary's best counties in the primaries, with hardly any move on the margins from same-day to final VbM. This might be the only region of the state where Hillary doesn't lose the Provisional Vote.... we'll see, but been amazed at how not only how strong Sac was for Hillary on Election day, but how well her margins have held up and won (45-55) on Late VbMs..... this is a major exception, outside of a few high wealth counties like San Mateo, and Marin.

Misc Rural Norcal/ Sierra Nevadas

Basically the remainder of the statewide vote. Not tons of huge pop centers, but some of Bernie's best regions, especially with late vote-by-mails.

I figure the trend will continue, and from my experience in Southern Oregon, the early vote-by-mails are heavily Senior, and provisionals will likely  deliver the highest % margins of any of the regions of Cali.

So, does this analysis sound accurate or is there an over/under estimated proportion of Dem ballots and Bernie/Hillary % that isn't realistic. If not so, then why?

Wouldn't be surprised to see Hillary's lead drop by 150k from todays numbers once Cali finally finishing counting their ballots.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CA is within single digits!

Clinton 54.5% - 2,514,729
Sanders 44.6% - 2,054,711

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Per the SOS, 2 counties are completely done.

Glenn County: 51.5-46.8 Sanders
Lassen County: 53.7-42.6 Sanders

[Landslide Lyndon]

Per the SOS, 2 counties are completely done.

Glenn County: 51.5-46.8 Sanders
Lassen County: 53.7-42.6 Sanders

Lassen hasn't finished.
Besides Glenn the other counties who are finished are Calaveras, Colusa, Inyo, Mariposa, Sierra and Tehama.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Per the SOS, 2 counties are completely done.

Glenn County: 51.5-46.8 Sanders
Lassen County: 53.7-42.6 Sanders

Lassen hasn't finished.
Besides Glenn the other counties who are finished are Calaveras, Colusa, Inyo, Mariposa, Sierra and Tehama.

Uh, the SOS denotes it with the CCC symbol, which means "no further updates". That's what I'm using.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I am using this.

http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2016-primary/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf

[NOVA Green]

I am using this.

http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2016-primary/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf

I would also add Alpine County to that list...

I've run into a few issues with delayed updates to that report, compared to County level sites but would imagine a 0-0-0 should indicate that there are no ballots remaining to be counted, albeit not yet officially updated with the SoS in the system.

What's really annoying is the delay in updating the vote-by-mail ballots number for counties that we know have updated vote counts from a week ago!:

For example, it lists ~22.3k Vote-by-Mail ballots outstanding for Alameda County, but the reality is that all of the VbMs have pretty much been counted for the county with updated county numbers posted on 6/16 and 6/17.

I would view as suspect any total vote-by-mail numbers on this report from counties that have not provided any updates there since election day/night/early morn, such as Humboldt/Mendocino/Sonoma, as well as counties that have provided updates since ED on their county websites and/or updated to the "President Statewide Page" but not yet to this report (Nevada county).

So my thought would be that the "County Reporting Status" webpage should be considered "official declaration of final ballots counting pending SoS certification" but that the "Unprocessed ballot report" will pretty much tell us what counties are basically done counting their votes, but haven't yet updated the SoS for this report.

[NOVA Green]

Provisional ballots now starting to come in for the first time...

San Diego County (Possibly some VbMs included) 10k Dem Ballots (57.5-42.5 Bernie).
Orange County- (All Provisionals)- 8.7k Dem Ballots(63-37 Bernie).
Santa Clara County (All Provisionals)- 5.2k Dem Ballots (59-41 Bernie).
San Francisco County (All Provisionals)- 2.7k Dem Ballots (60-40 Bernie).
Solano County- (All Provisionals)- 1.7k Dem Ballots (61-39 Bernie).
Siskiyou County- (All Provisionals)- 300 Dem Ballots (73-27 Bernie).

Based upon this data, it looks like my (60-40 Bernie) Provisional estimate is tracking, although both in NorCal and SoCal, although obviously without any data from LA County with 250k Provisionals alone, this doesn't necessarily tell us how this will impact total margins.

However, looking at the prelim provisional data from the Bay Area, I'm now moving Alameda officially into a "tossup" status. There are 42k Provisionals in an overwhelmingly heavily Dem county, and there is currently only a 10k gap between the two candidates, and based upon early data would not be surprised to see Bernie hit  65-70% of valid Provisional Dem ballots.

Elsewhere, still a ton of provisionals in OC, where Hillary leads by 18k votes (47.2-52. and I think it will likely end up 49-51 Hillary).

Siskiyou County is an interesting example, because it basically provides and indicator at what will happen in more populous counties like Humboldt/Mendecino and similar parts of Norcal once we get some actual post-election day results, where there appear to be a huge chunk of VbMs out there....

Either that, or the local "Headband" hybrids made the county election departments so efficient, that every singe vote-by-mail and provisionals were all counted on election day, and everyone is just waiting until the last date for the county to provide results to the state. That is an inside joke for anyone who has spent any time in the North Coast and chilled in NorCal overall, including Bay Area and Central Coast.






 

[catographer]

Where do you guys think her lead will end at? It's fallen ever since election day from 13ish to 9.9 (at this moment). I expect maybe 9-8; slightly better than '08 or almost the same. Your thoughts?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I think things will round to 53-46 Clinton at the end.

[IceSpear]

Where do you guys think her lead will end at? It's fallen ever since election day from 13ish to 9.9 (at this moment). I expect maybe 9-8; slightly better than '08 or almost the same. Your thoughts?

Bernie will win the remaining votes by a big enough margin to erase his pledged delegate deficit and win the nomination. Hillary might as well concede now. [/Beet]

In all seriousness, it's hard to say. My guess is it will end up very similar to her 08 margin of +8.31%.

And yeah, it's really annoying how the unprocessed ballots PDF and the county reporting status pages rarely line up.  For instance, the former says Marin County has not updated since 6/9, which made no sense since CA-02 narrowed significantly. But the country reporting page is correct, showing its last update as 6/17.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Alameda, Del Norte and Trinity are finished too.

[NOVA Green]

I think things will round to 53-46 Clinton at the end.

That's about what I have...

I figure we have about 150k Democratic Vote-by-Mails out total, with about 80k from the counties that haven't updated since Election Day (Humboldt, Mendocino, Sonoma, Yolo, Lake, and Placer) and 70k Dem Vote-by-Mails from the misc stragglers that have only partially reported (LA, Sac, Contra Costa, Napa, Monterey, and a few other misc. smaller numbers from elsewhere).

I'm guessing that maybe 60% of the <590k Provisional ballots out there will be valid Dem ballots, (but could be a bit lower, who knows really) and that they'll break about 60-40 Bernie-Hillary so thinking at the end of the day we'll have about 5.1 Million Dem ballots and roughly 2,370,000 Bernie and 2,740,000 Hillary.

If we drop off the 1% for the misc candidates I'm coming up with something like 45.9-53.1% Hillary.

Really, LA County provisionals are going to be the major factor in the final margins, with an estimated 250k Provo ballots out from that county alone.

[NOVA Green]

Yolo county just flipped.... first update from the county since Election day went from (48-52 Clinton) to (51.5-48.5 Bernie).

So time for everyone to take a look at their California County predication maps... I think this was something we were all expecting, but still worth of noting.