Republican Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

For some reason Bernalillo county suddenly went from around 330 precincts reporting to 170. The total vote is stuck at 37% reporting vs. 62% for the dems.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Big Horn has been corrected. Now it is 80.9% Trump. 

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Lol Carson getting 3.5% in Cali.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump wins California. That only gets him 13 delegates though. I'll start calling the other 159 once we get up to 10% or so statewide.

[Gabagool102]

Jim Gilmore has 3,012 votes in CA with 5.2 % reporting.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Kasich's doing much better in SD than I expected. Might have been competitive there in a contested election.

Indeed, he's doing better there than he did in WI.

[dax00]

I think it's safe to call all 303 delegates at stake today for Trump, putting him at 1442 bound delegates.

[Seriously?]

I think it's safe to call all 303 delegates at stake today for Trump, putting him at 1442 bound delegates.

I suspect you are right. I don't think Cruz gets to 15% in New Mexico and Trump is on pace to win every CD in California.

[RI]

Cruz did quite well in the old Spaniard counties of New Mexico.

[Matty]

Trump at 80% in Orange, Riverside, SD

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With 76% in for NM, Cruz is at 13%. He might, might just barely make it to 15%, we'll have to see.

[dax00]

With 76% in for NM, Cruz is at 13%. He might, might just barely make it to 15%, we'll have to see.

The odds are about 10000:1

[Wisconsin+17]

Eh, 2 percent more isn't off base.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

We've got a pretty good sample of CA, a little bit from everywhere even though its only 1398 of the 22k precincts in the state. So the first round of CD calls are in order. All the results I'm getting are from http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2016/by_cd/CA_GOP_0607_VD.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Trump is projected as the winner in the following districts: 1,2,3,4,10,16,20,21,22,24,26,36,41,49,50,51,52,53
Trump is leading, but not yet completely safe, in the following districts: 5,6,8,9,11,18,30,38,39,45,46,47,48

Just to be on the safe side, I'm not calling anything listed as under 1% reporting. Don't want to have to retract anything.

So that's a win in 18/53 districts so far. So 3x18=54+13(Statewide WTA)=67/172 delegates so far. Number should be much higher at the end of the night.

[Mr. Morden]

From Republican presidential primaries in the last 20 years, here are the 10 weakest showings by the presumptive nominee after all of his major competitors dropped out of the race:

Trump in 2016: Nebraska 61.4%
Bush in 2000: Utah 63.3%
Trump in 2016: Oregon 64.1%
Romney in 2012: Indiana 64.6%
Bush in 2000: Colorado 64.7%
Romney in 2012: North Carolina 65.6%
Romney in 2012: South Dakota 66.2%
Romney in 2012: Kentucky 66.8%
Trump in 2016: South Dakota 67.1% (tentative)
Romney in 2012: Arkansas 68.4%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Second round of CD Calls:

Trump can add the following to his arsenal: Districts 5,7,23,25

So a win in 22/53 districts so far. 79/172 delegates.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump adds in districts 27,29,32,39,40. 27/53 districts, 94/172 delegates.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

10% of the vote to go in New Mexico, and Cruz only at 13.2%. Things look pretty dire for him to get a delegate.

[Ronnie]

Trump just crossed 13 million votes, according to The Green Papers.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Adding in a bunch more CA districts for Trump: 14,18,30,33,42,43,44,45,46,47,48

So that brings him up to 38/53 districts, 127/172 delegates.

Uncalled Districts: 6,8,9,11,12,13,15,17,19,28,31,34,35,37,38

[Seriously?]

10% of the vote to go in New Mexico, and Cruz only at 13.2%. Things look pretty dire for him to get a delegate.

At 98%. Cruz is at 13.3%. No delegates for anyone other than Trump in NM. Votes just out in Sandoval (13 precincts), Hildago, De Baca and Catron Counties.

[ElectionsGuy]

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^^ We basically have Alaska results by county. See NYT.

Also adding in three more CA districts for TRUMP: 9, 12, 38. So 41/53 districts, 136/172 delegates.

[ElectionsGuy]

^^ We basically have Alaska results by county. See NYT.

There's no way I can for sure fit the votes per house district and translate them into the boroughs, especially ones that cover multiple boroughs.

[Mr. Morden]

Updated (final?) national popular vote #s:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R

Trump 44%
Cruz 25%
Kasich 14%
Rubio 12%
Carson 3%
Bush 0.9%
Uncommitted 0.2%
Paul 0.2%
Christie 0.2%
Huckabee 0.2%
Fiorina 0.1%
Santorum 0.05%
No Preference 0.05%
Gilmore 0.04%
Graham 0.02%

Gilmore did so well in California that he finished ahead of Graham nationally!  And almost as high as No Preference.

Meanwhile, Trump finishes primary season with 44% of the national vote.  I think that’s the lowest by any Republican presidential nominee in the modern era.  But hey, at least it’s higher than Walter Mondale’s vote share in the 1984 Dem. primaries.