IN - Bellwether research - Pence +4

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Pence (R) - 40%
Gregg (D) - 36%
Bell (L) - 2%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzYWYWbqPbrFYmpfbExFNm1wYjQ/view?pref=2&pli=1

[Gass3268]

This will probably be closer than it should, with Pence pulling it out in the end. Just shows how much of a better spot Democrats would in if they moved the Governor races to Presidential years. There should be a push in states with referendums to do just that.

[RFayette]

I still think this will be a tough one for Pence to eke out, given how close the '12 margin was.  It just seems like there will be very few Gregg '12/Pence '16 voters and plenty of the inverse.

[standwrand]

Bell won't get 2% and Trump will win IN by a large margin, so Trump voters will vote Pence downballot and Pence will win by a larger margin than when he was first elected.

[Adam Griffin]

It seems more common for two-time challengers to do worse on the second attempt than the other way around, percentage-wise. On the other hand, Pence has draw a lot of additional scrutiny to himself since 2012, plus I don't see how Trump could be anything other than a net-negative. On the other (other) hand, Pence now has incumbency.

[BuckeyeNut]

The 2012 IN Gubernatorial Election was the closest in 50 years, and Pence won by 3.21%. Repeats may typically favor the incumbent, but I can't see Pence doing better. Truly establishment Republicans in Indianapolis (ex: Ballard) and elsewhere are going to be depressed with Trump at the top of the ticket anyway.